Liberal Forum

Alan Cole put his life savings, all $342,195.63, into a prediction-market wager. … Until Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency came roaring into the nation’s capital last year, he was largely a plain-vanilla investor or, as he puts it, a “normal, conventional Wall Street Journal-reading adult.” 

But Musk’s boasts and his eager fans brought an unusual opportunity into the burgeoning U.S. prediction markets: People willing to bet that the world’s richest man would transform and shrink the federal government. 

Cole took the opposite position, one he didn’t see as a gamble at all. If federal spending in each quarter of 2025 exceeded federal spending in the fourth quarter of 2024, he would win big. … 

From Cole’s perspective, even if Musk cut government contracts and shrank the federal workforce—which he did—he couldn’t meaningfully dent Social Security and Medicare benefits. And that left no plausible path for cutting overall federal spending. ... 

The key feature of the prediction market offered on the Kalshi website was that it measured federal spending in annualized, seasonally adjusted nominal dollars. To win, Cole didn’t need spending to stay above a past projection. He just needed federal spending to go up, as it almost always does. 

He made like $128,000, or 37%. Notice the features of this product:

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/newsletters/2026-02-26/the-doge-doubt-trade?cmpid=BBD022626_MONEYSTUFF&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&utm_term=260226&utm_campaign=moneystuff

If you have a view like “federal spending will go up,” it is immediately obvious whether and to what extent the market incorporates that view: The market price just is the market’s expected probability of that happening.This product reflects only one fact, whether federal spending goes up or not.

Investor psychology will affect the price at which you get into the trade — if Musk’s “eager fans” think he will cut federal spending, then you will pay a relatively low price for the spending-will-go-up contract — but not the price at which you exit, because the trade resolves: Eventually, spending either goes up or it doesn’t, there’s some resolution mechanism to establish the fact, and if it went up you get paid. Tom Gara wrote on Threads: “He knew that it’s basically mathematically impossible to reduce federal spending, but he also knew Elon fanboys are often morons.” With Tesla stock, that is a problem; with prediction markets, it’s an opportunity.


Ibid.

Blackvegetable » 26 Feb 2026, 3:20 pm » wrote: ↑

26 Feb 2026, 3:20 pm

Alan Cole put his life savings, all $342,195.63, into a prediction-market wager. … Until Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency came roaring into the nation’s capital last year, he was largely a plain-vanilla investor or, as he puts it, a “normal, conventional Wall Street Journal-reading adult.” 

But Musk’s boasts and his eager fans brought an unusual opportunity into the burgeoning U.S. prediction markets: People willing to bet that the world’s richest man would transform and shrink the federal government. 

Cole took the opposite position, one he didn’t see as a gamble at all. If federal spending in each quarter of 2025 exceeded federal spending in the fourth quarter of 2024, he would win big. … 

From Cole’s perspective, even if Musk cut government contracts and shrank the federal workforce—which he did—he couldn’t meaningfully dent Social Security and Medicare benefits. And that left no plausible path for cutting overall federal spending. ... 

The key feature of the prediction market offered on the Kalshi website was that it measured federal spending in annualized, seasonally adjusted nominal dollars. To win, Cole didn’t need spending to stay above a past projection. He just needed federal spending to go up, as it almost always does. 

He made like $128,000, or 37%. Notice the features of this product:

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/newsletters/2026-02-26/the-doge-doubt-trade?cmpid=BBD022626_MONEYSTUFF&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&utm_term=260226&utm_campaign=moneystuff

Cry to Deezer.
Ok BV. Let's compare our definitions of Survivorship Bias and why yours is as useless as you. - Liberal Forum Political Chat Room

Deal:

Deal: Veghead claimed he already answered this question. LOL. If Veghead proves that he did indeed answer the survivorship multiple choice question below, as the question is written and asked, along with his defense of his answer, then I will agree to never come back. I am permabanned. Gone. Like a fart in the wind. If he cannot, then he is out of here for a month. Additionally, his defense cannot be "Because it fits my definition." That is a claim, not a defense. He is to defend why.  His evidence must precede the timestamp upon when this challenge has been agreed upon by both parties. Moreover, he must answer immediately when the mods say "go," That next post. Not the next 600 posts. Either Cannon or Deezer mods.

Exception: I will allow for an exception. If he loses, then I will allow him to stay if he answers it the way it is asked, along with his defense. However, he must do it immediately after the deal has been decided. Not 100 posts later. The very next post of his must be his answer/defense.

Which scenario is an example of survivorship bias in evaluating business success?

A) Believing that reading business books increases revenue after finding many CEOs recommend them.
B) Concluding that most startups fail after analyzing bankrupt companies.
C) Thinking entrepreneurship is easy because most media profiles focus on successful founders.
D) Surveying customers to understand why they chose your product over competitors

Blackvegetable » 26 Feb 2026, 3:20 pm » wrote: ↑

26 Feb 2026, 3:20 pm

Alan Cole put his life savings, all $342,195.63, into a prediction-market wager. … Until Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency came roaring into the nation’s capital last year, he was largely a plain-vanilla investor or, as he puts it, a “normal, conventional Wall Street Journal-reading adult.” 

But Musk’s boasts and his eager fans brought an unusual opportunity into the burgeoning U.S. prediction markets: People willing to bet that the world’s richest man would transform and shrink the federal government. 

Cole took the opposite position, one he didn’t see as a gamble at all. If federal spending in each quarter of 2025 exceeded federal spending in the fourth quarter of 2024, he would win big. … 

From Cole’s perspective, even if Musk cut government contracts and shrank the federal workforce—which he did—he couldn’t meaningfully dent Social Security and Medicare benefits. And that left no plausible path for cutting overall federal spending. ... 

The key feature of the prediction market offered on the Kalshi website was that it measured federal spending in annualized, seasonally adjusted nominal dollars. To win, Cole didn’t need spending to stay above a past projection. He just needed federal spending to go up, as it almost always does. 

He made like $128,000, or 37%. Notice the features of this product:

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/newsletters/2026-02-26/the-doge-doubt-trade?cmpid=BBD022626_MONEYSTUFF&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&utm_term=260226&utm_campaign=moneystuff

Anyone who entered the market and then whined cause they lost their money.  Must be related to Bv.      

roadkill » 26 Feb 2026, 4:12 pm » wrote: ↑

26 Feb 2026, 4:12 pm

Anyone who entered the market and then whined cause they lost their money.  Must be related to Bv.    

RunnyStool         
 

Blackvegetable » 26 Feb 2026, 3:20 pm » wrote: ↑

26 Feb 2026, 3:20 pm

Alan Cole put his life savings, all $342,195.63, into a prediction-market wager. … Until Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency came roaring into the nation’s capital last year, he was largely a plain-vanilla investor or, as he puts it, a “normal, conventional Wall Street Journal-reading adult.” 

But Musk’s boasts and his eager fans brought an unusual opportunity into the burgeoning U.S. prediction markets: People willing to bet that the world’s richest man would transform and shrink the federal government. 

Cole took the opposite position, one he didn’t see as a gamble at all. If federal spending in each quarter of 2025 exceeded federal spending in the fourth quarter of 2024, he would win big. … 

From Cole’s perspective, even if Musk cut government contracts and shrank the federal workforce—which he did—he couldn’t meaningfully dent Social Security and Medicare benefits. And that left no plausible path for cutting overall federal spending. ... 

The key feature of the prediction market offered on the Kalshi website was that it measured federal spending in annualized, seasonally adjusted nominal dollars. To win, Cole didn’t need spending to stay above a past projection. He just needed federal spending to go up, as it almost always does. 

He made like $128,000, or 37%. Notice the features of this product:

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/newsletters/2026-02-26/the-doge-doubt-trade?cmpid=BBD022626_MONEYSTUFF&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&utm_term=260226&utm_campaign=moneystuff

The retards on this site insisted Musk was "taking a giant axe" and "gutting" the Beast so Grover Norquist could drown it in a bathtub...

*Roshambo » 26 Feb 2026, 4:19 pm » wrote: ↑

26 Feb 2026, 4:19 pm

RunnyStool       

That's what I said...Bv.      

roadkill » 26 Feb 2026, 4:38 pm » wrote: ↑

26 Feb 2026, 4:38 pm

That's what I said...Bv.    

you touched and fondled @nefarious101  and he enjoyed it.
yer yer yer a homo           

roadkill » 26 Feb 2026, 4:38 pm » wrote: ↑

26 Feb 2026, 4:38 pm

That's what I said...Bv.    

Dickhead's begging for attention....must have a red *** over SOTU

*Roshambo » 26 Feb 2026, 4:51 pm » wrote: ↑

26 Feb 2026, 4:51 pm

you touched and fondled @nefarious101  and he enjoyed it.
yer yer yer a homo           

Looks like Bv has your dick in his mouth.     
 

nefarious101 » 26 Feb 2026, 5:03 pm » wrote: ↑

26 Feb 2026, 5:03 pm

Dickhead's begging for attention....must have a red *** over SOTU

You know he does.     

roadkill » 26 Feb 2026, 5:06 pm » wrote: ↑

26 Feb 2026, 5:06 pm

Looks like Bv has your dick in his mouth.

RunnyPedoStool is the dumbest mother **** alive       

evahh             
 

*Roshambo » 26 Feb 2026, 5:09 pm » wrote: ↑

26 Feb 2026, 5:09 pm

RunnyPedoStool is the dumbest mother **** alive       

evahh         

Scambo never graduated...from anything.                                                                          

roadkill » 26 Feb 2026, 5:23 pm » wrote: ↑

26 Feb 2026, 5:23 pm

Scambo never graduated...from anything.                                                                        

Scambo never molested children like you did PEDOROAD   

 v
 
 

*Roshambo » 26 Feb 2026, 5:27 pm » wrote: ↑

26 Feb 2026, 5:27 pm

Scambo never molested children like you did PEDOROAD   

 v

You guys must have guessed yer fall is coming.  Yer acting strange, like fear or something.   

 

Blackvegetable » 26 Feb 2026, 3:20 pm » wrote: ↑

26 Feb 2026, 3:20 pm

Alan Cole put his life savings, all $342,195.63, into a prediction-market wager. … Until Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency came roaring into the nation’s capital last year, he was largely a plain-vanilla investor or, as he puts it, a “normal, conventional Wall Street Journal-reading adult.” 

But Musk’s boasts and his eager fans brought an unusual opportunity into the burgeoning U.S. prediction markets: People willing to bet that the world’s richest man would transform and shrink the federal government. 

Cole took the opposite position, one he didn’t see as a gamble at all. If federal spending in each quarter of 2025 exceeded federal spending in the fourth quarter of 2024, he would win big. … 

From Cole’s perspective, even if Musk cut government contracts and shrank the federal workforce—which he did—he couldn’t meaningfully dent Social Security and Medicare benefits. And that left no plausible path for cutting overall federal spending. ... 

The key feature of the prediction market offered on the Kalshi website was that it measured federal spending in annualized, seasonally adjusted nominal dollars. To win, Cole didn’t need spending to stay above a past projection. He just needed federal spending to go up, as it almost always does. 

He made like $128,000, or 37%. Notice the features of this product:

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/newsletters/2026-02-26/the-doge-doubt-trade?cmpid=BBD022626_MONEYSTUFF&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&utm_term=260226&utm_campaign=moneystuff

This made me laugh....  


Search Assist

More than 1 million federal employees responded to the Department of Government Efficiency's (DOGE) request for a list of their accomplishments, which means that many others did not comply and could be considered as having chosen to be fired. However, the exact number of those who failed to report and were subsequently fired is not specified. Business Insider 
 

*GHETTOBLASTER » 26 Feb 2026, 6:18 pm » wrote: ↑

26 Feb 2026, 6:18 pm

This made me laugh....  

Search Assist

More than 1 million federal employees responded to the Department of Government Efficiency's (DOGE) request for a list of their accomplishments, which means that many others did not comply and could be considered as having chosen to be fired. However, the exact number of those who failed to report and were subsequently fired is not specified. Business Insider 

How many could credibly claim credit for having forged a peace between Kazakhstan and the Romulans....

roadkill » 26 Feb 2026, 4:12 pm » wrote: ↑

26 Feb 2026, 4:12 pm

Anyone who entered the market and then whined cause they lost their money.  Must be related to Bv.    

this guy made 30% in a year.

Learn to read.


**** idiot 

Blackvegetable » 26 Feb 2026, 7:10 pm » wrote: ↑

26 Feb 2026, 7:10 pm

this guy made 30% in a year.

Learn to read.

**** idiot

And if you think that's the norm yer the idiot.     

roadkill » 26 Feb 2026, 7:16 pm » wrote: ↑

26 Feb 2026, 7:16 pm

And if you think that's the norm yer the idiot.   

He wasn't playing the stock market.

Learn to read. 

**** idiot