So you are saying LowIQTrash is an imbecile for bringing up that 2 year inversion?Blackvegetable » Today, 11:24 am » wrote: ↑ nobody who does this for real stakes believed that the 2022 inflation spike would persist...it is why the iyc of 22 is irrelevant in the context of forecasting recession.
There was a time when people were convinced that Polymarket had predictive value.
Upon inspection, that turned out to be false...
Can you explain away the time difference between the start of 2022 inversion and where we are currently?LowIQTrash » Today, 11:35 am » wrote: ↑ "This time is different"
Some famous last words...![]()
![]()
When I go on Stocktwits, all I see are the peons gleefully buying every dip. They will regret that...very soon...
It's 4 years ago...Fuelman » Today, 11:37 am » wrote: ↑ So you are saying LowIQTrash is an imbecile for bringing up that 2 year inversion?
Can you "explain away" the lousy jobs data and persisting inflation?Fuelman » Today, 11:40 am » wrote: ↑ Can you explain away the time difference between the start of 2022 inversion and where we are currently?
The lousy jobs data hasn't made much of a dent in the unemployment rate.Blackvegetable » Today, 11:47 am » wrote: ↑ Can you "explain away" the lousy jobs data and persisting inflation?
Is that what you're going with?Fuelman » Today, 1:03 pm » wrote: ↑ The lousy jobs data hasn't made much of a dent in the unemployment rate.
U.S. Unemployment Rate (1948-2026) https://share.google/jtEfMhEz7yEvAcVpB
Let me know when 2 quarters of negative GDP arrive.
Is that "yes" or "no"?
Isn't fake Fed data just as good as any other fake data?Blackvegetable » Today, 1:49 pm » wrote: ↑ Is that "yes" or "no"?
Let's forgo the tutorial on the Definition of Recession for now.
Either yes or no..
Fuelman » Today, 11:37 am » wrote: ↑ So you are saying LowIQTrash is an imbecile for bringing up that 2 year inversion?
There is nothing to explain away. Either the indicator is broken (despite having a perfect track record for a century) or something ominous is coming...Fuelman » Today, 11:40 am » wrote: ↑ Can you explain away the time difference between the start of 2022 inversion and where we are currently?