Liberal Forum

https://ritholtz.com/2024/01/atm-foreca ... ore-328705

....Claudia Sahm. She is a former Federal Reserve economist and creator of what has become known as the Sahm rule.....

Barry Ritholtz: So that obviously is not great. How long and deep are the typical recessions?

 Claudia Sahm: It varies. It depends on what happened. The global financial crisis in 2008, that was a big, fast, deep recession. That was very bad.2001, the bursting of the dot com bubble. That’s one of the mildest recessions that we’ve seen in a very long time...

 Barry Ritholtz: So let me get a little more specific. How timely is this indicator when it goes off and what’s its track record been like?

 Claudia Sahm: It has a perfect track record since the 1970s. It’s never triggered outside of a recession and it’s always triggered early in one. Far earlier than we would have the official recession dating by the National Bureau of Economic Research,

The WHAT?

But it is about to get much, much, worse for FOX  "edified" home economists...

 
 

She probably says them because that is her opinion. Are you really not smart enough to figure that out?

Barry Ritholtz: So let’s talk a little bit about that. You know, since the pandemic ended, It seems almost immediately after the recovery began, we began hearing about a recession. This has already been going on for 2 years. It’s imminent. It’s about to happen.

 And as that drumbeat has gotten louder, inflation has gone down, unemployment has fallen, consumer spending has remained robust, even wage gains have gotten better. If anything, the economy has improved.

 Why this constant drumbeat that a recession is imminent?


 Claudia Sahm: Many economists, many of my peers got stuck in the 1970s.
 Inflation went up. I mean, legitimately, in 2021, that was the first time in a long time we’d seen Inflation above 2 percent. It spiked, it went up fast. If you i knew nothing else and just saw inflation going up, typically, you’d say, ”Oh, okay, the Federal Reserve has gotta step in. They gotta raise interest rates.” And in the past, when the Fed has done that, it ends up in a bad place. Right. Like, it’s hard to do that.The point I had made the entire time was that most of that inflation was coming from disruptions from COVID. And as we went into 2022, there were also disruptions from Putin invading Ukraine. [Mhmm]. That’s not demand. That’s not what interest rates solve.


ibid.





B....b....b....b...but Biduhn!...

Morons..
 

Jay Powell did not unload the docks in LA. He didn’t take a second job. He didn’t give the vaccine out. These were all things that needed to happen to get inflation down.
 It has been so slow to get back on track, and yet 2023 – which we were told was impossible – massive declines in inflation, unemployment at its lowest in, you know, since the 1960s. That shouldn’t have happened, and yet it made perfect sense if you thought about, “Hey, there was a pandemic; Hey, there was a war in Europe.”

ibid...

Why does E. Jean Carroll say Trump is like a Rhino......is it the big horn?

Democrats suck.
 

ConsRule » 01 Feb 2024, 9:20 am » wrote: ↑

01 Feb 2024, 9:20 am

She probably says them because that is her opinion. Are you really not smart enough to figure that out?

Or because they're obvious.

R.Suave » 01 Feb 2024, 9:24 am » wrote: ↑

01 Feb 2024, 9:24 am

Jay Powell did not unload the docks in LA. He didn’t take a second job. He didn’t give the vaccine out. These were all things that needed to happen to get inflation down.
 It has been so slow to get back on track, and yet 2023 – which we were told was impossible – massive declines in inflation, unemployment at its lowest in, you know, since the 1960s. That shouldn’t have happened, and yet it made perfect sense if you thought about, “Hey, there was a pandemic; Hey, there was a war in Europe.”

ibid...

Huh, snce the 60s?

Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 145,000 in December, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.5 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Notable job gains occurred in retail trade and health care, while mining lost jobs.

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archiv ... 102020.pdf

RebelGator » 01 Feb 2024, 9:27 am » wrote: ↑

01 Feb 2024, 9:27 am

Why does E. Jean Carroll say Trump is like a Rhino......is it the big horn?

Democrats suck.

Are you an eye witness?


 

Huey » 01 Feb 2024, 9:38 am » wrote: ↑

01 Feb 2024, 9:38 am

Huh, snce the 60s?

Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 145,000 in December, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.5 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Notable job gains occurred in retail trade and health care, while mining lost jobs.

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archiv ... 102020.pdf

Could you put that in the form of some point, or argument?

R.Suave » 01 Feb 2024, 9:50 am » wrote: ↑

01 Feb 2024, 9:50 am

Could you put that in the form of some point, or argument?

It is quite clear but for 500 greenies I certainly will.

Huey » 01 Feb 2024, 9:38 am » wrote: ↑

01 Feb 2024, 9:38 am

Huh, snce the 60s?

Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 145,000 in December, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.5 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Notable job gains occurred in retail trade and health care, while mining lost jobs.

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archiv ... 102020.pdf

Claudia Sahm: The Sahm rule looks for relatively small increases in the unemployment rate to say we’re in a recession. Specifically, we look at the unemployment rate, the national unemployment rate, take the 3-month average. We don’t wanna get faked out by the bumps and wiggles. We compare the most recent reading to the lowest of these 3-month averages over the prior 12 months.If that difference is half a percentage point or more, We are in a recession.

B...b...b...b...but "bumps and wiggles" are EVERYTHING!....(....sob....)

R. Suave » 01 Feb 2024, 9:50 am » wrote: ↑

01 Feb 2024, 9:50 am

Could you put that in the form of some point, or argument?

Aren't facts decimal points to evolving comparing events that spontaneously happen simultaneously here in past results, current events, next generations repeating same ideas over and over expecting better tomorrows each rotation of the planet remaining 3rd rock from a star geographically here all the time nothing stays what it was previous here.

Huey » 01 Feb 2024, 9:54 am » wrote: ↑

01 Feb 2024, 9:54 am

It is quite clear but for 500 greenies I certainly will.

No...it's gibberish...don't pretend it is worth paying for.

Huey » 01 Feb 2024, 9:54 am » wrote: ↑

01 Feb 2024, 9:54 am

It is quite clear but for 500 greenies I certainly will.

There is great humor you spending a greenie on a reddie to his reply.

Nostradamus'omh » 01 Feb 2024, 10:04 am » wrote: ↑

01 Feb 2024, 10:04 am

There is great humor you spending a greenie on a reddie to his reply.

 

I got plenty

Huey » 01 Feb 2024, 10:07 am » wrote: ↑

01 Feb 2024, 10:07 am

I got plenty

I like the second post given in this thread because everyone debates possibilities into social narratives saving tomorrow, but nobody is rescuing yesterday's mistakes carried over generation after generation going forward each great great grandchild changing population left tomorrow.

R.Suave » 01 Feb 2024, 9:10 am » wrote: ↑

01 Feb 2024, 9:10 am

https://ritholtz.com/2024/01/atm-foreca ... ore-328705

....Claudia Sahm. She is a former Federal Reserve economist and creator of what has become known as the Sahm rule.....

Barry Ritholtz: So that obviously is not great. How long and deep are the typical recessions?

 Claudia Sahm: It varies. It depends on what happened. The global financial crisis in 2008, that was a big, fast, deep recession. That was very bad.2001, the bursting of the dot com bubble. That’s one of the mildest recessions that we’ve seen in a very long time...

 Barry Ritholtz: So let me get a little more specific. How timely is this indicator when it goes off and what’s its track record been like?

 Claudia Sahm: It has a perfect track record since the 1970s. It’s never triggered outside of a recession and it’s always triggered early in one. Far earlier than we would have the official recession dating by the National Bureau of Economic Research,

The WHAT?

But it is about to get much, much, worse for FOX  "edified" home economists...

No thoughts, ect..copy/paste. 

Vegas » 01 Feb 2024, 10:18 am » wrote: ↑

01 Feb 2024, 10:18 am

No thoughts, ect..copy/paste.

No thoughts, ect

This is the kind of **** you cannot possibly make up.

 

Huey » 01 Feb 2024, 10:07 am » wrote: ↑

01 Feb 2024, 10:07 am

I got plenty

 

Vegas » 01 Feb 2024, 10:18 am » wrote: ↑

01 Feb 2024, 10:18 am

No thoughts, ect..copy/paste. 

 

And he whines I didn't make a point.