Liberal Forum

ConservativeWave » 20 Apr 2024, 12:12 pm » wrote: ↑

20 Apr 2024, 12:12 pm

I'm expecting:

1)  20% pullback in the next month or so, THEN

2)  Another rally into election day (i.e. Democrats last ditch effort to make Americans believe things are "GREAT"), BEFORE

3)  -50% BEAR Market begins... beginning in the February - April 2025 time frame !

That's what I think !!

It might be a better play to hang that around the Democrats neck for the next four years.

Just a thought,,,,,
 

LowIQTrash » 19 Apr 2024, 4:58 pm » wrote: ↑

19 Apr 2024, 4:58 pm

It may not be a priority now, but the window is closing.

While I fully understand and accept your decades of additional experience, it’s going to get to a point where - in the coming years - you won’t even be able to make money even if you wanted to.

That or it will be exponentially harder…you have to be like some top star AI engineer or something with a PhD and 7+ yrs of exp. 

Surely you’ve noticed - it’s harder now than it was 10 years ago…and 10 years ago it was harder than 20 years ago (the Bush years minus 2008 seem like paradise compared to today).

You know how Greece hasn’t really recovered from 2008? I have an acquaintance who lives there and he plays poker for a living since nobody in Greece is spending money to buy stuff.

That’s the United States in 2034.

It's more like decades of additional luck!  

I've been blessed with a mindset of being an eternal optimistic.  Challenges always occur no matter where you are in life. How you handle them is what sets people apart.

Keep pointing that bat over the fence.  
 

Fuelman » 20 Apr 2024, 12:34 pm » wrote: ↑

20 Apr 2024, 12:34 pm

It might be a better play to hang that around the Democrats neck for the next four years.

Just a thought,,,,,

Unlikely, stock market crashes have a nasty habit of turning up under Republican presidents.

This year will be an exception…

LowIQTrash » 18 Apr 2024, 5:38 pm » wrote: ↑

18 Apr 2024, 5:38 pm

I did not sell yet, this is just the beginning.

I expect IWM to fall at least another 20% by December 31st, so…155-160 should be a reasonable estimate for where IWM will be. 

Doing some calculations, I bought (only one) IWM put at 204, now at 193 so a 5.4% decline = ~35% increase. A 25% decline (overall) should put you at ~150% increase.

If you buy a put expiring December 31st or later, starting at 193 (current) you should still net around a 120% return, minimum I expect is 90%.

If do sell the put it’s because I have another play I’m looking at….one of those meme stocks that can climb 100% in 4 weeks or less. 

“Nobody ever went broke taking profits”  > for me it’s “Nobody ever “got rich quickly” without going all out”  

Looks like you are getting your dead cat bounce.

??? Have been looking at Yahoo finance at the Puts for IWM and today the 204 put is not on the chart?
 

Fuelman » 23 Apr 2024, 11:18 am » wrote: ↑

23 Apr 2024, 11:18 am

Looks like you are getting your dead cat bounce.

??? Have been looking at Yahoo finance at the Puts for IWM and today the 204 put is not on the chart?

I should have clarified:

I meant I bought a put when IWM was trading at $204. The put itself does not have a “strike price” at $204. 

The cheapest put option that expires 31 Dec 2024 is the $194 put. However, I might even buy one that expires out in March 2025 since the decline could last a little beyond December. If that is the case we may see IWM dropping below $150. 

PS There will likely be a 2nd dead cat bounce, this is the first and I don’t believe it’s done yet. Will likely move to $200+ region 
 

Fuelman » 23 Apr 2024, 11:18 am » wrote: ↑

23 Apr 2024, 11:18 am

Looks like you are getting your dead cat bounce.

??? Have been looking at Yahoo finance at the Puts for IWM and today the 204 put is not on the chart?

First dead cat bounce complete. Ended at 205.

I learned an important lesson.

I should have taken that 40% gain. Why? It’s now back to -5% as IWM climbed up back to 200+. I even predicted this bounce. 

Lesson #1: (already learned) Always set expiration date at least 6 mo 

Lesson #2: If you see a bounce coming, book profits and re-enter. Multiplicative growth = massive gains.

So in theory, if I had a 40% gain followed up with (what I calculate as likely a 150% gain toward EOY) in the following crash, it’s 1.4 * 2.5 = 3.5 

So if I put in 10K initial value = 25K gain (250% return) or initial value x 3.5 

How many people do you know will triple+ their portfolios this yr?   

Sadly I missed out on that 1.4 multiplier. If I am reading this correctly, this is how some "traders" get rich: by keeping their small wins intact and rolling them into more small wins. Going for that "one big super win" is almost impossible. 

I'm also considering an alternative: because IWM options (and, for that matter, SPY options) have such a high theta, it MAY be a more profitable alternative to go for one of those discretionary stocks just waiting to tank.

Like Macy's for example...does anyone even shop there anymore? 

This summer is fast approaching. I will wait for the 2nd bounce and go ALL in. 
 
 
 

LowIQTrash » 08 May 2024, 11:00 pm » wrote: ↑

08 May 2024, 11:00 pm

First dead cat bounce complete. Ended at 205.

I learned an important lesson.

I should have taken that 40% gain. Why? It’s now back to -5% as IWM climbed up back to 200+. I even predicted this bounce. 

Lesson #1: (already learned) Always set expiration date at least 6 mo 

Lesson #2: If you see a bounce coming, book profits and re-enter. Multiplicative growth = massive gains.

So in theory, if I had a 40% gain followed up with (what I calculate as likely a 150% gain toward EOY) in the following crash, it’s 1.4 * 2.5 = 3.5 

So if I put in 10K initial value = 25K gain (250% return) or initial value x 3.5 

How many people do you know will triple+ their portfolios this yr?   

Sadly I missed out on that 1.4 multiplier. If I am reading this correctly, this is how some "traders" get rich: by keeping their small wins intact and rolling them into more small wins. Going for that "one big super win" is almost impossible. 

I'm also considering an alternative: because IWM options (and, for that matter, SPY options) have such a high theta, it MAY be a more profitable alternative to go for one of those discretionary stocks just waiting to tank.

Like Macy's for example...does anyone even shop there anymore? 

This summer is fast approaching. I will wait for the 2nd bounce and go ALL in.

I actually wrote down some numbers for the positions you mentioned. Long SLV, PAAS, AG. Puts on IWM and SPXL on March 19. Without knowing your exact position, it appears every one of those trades were in the money at some point since then. Pretty impressive!

It can be quiet hard to separate emotions (greed) from the technical side. It will cost you as someone is always ready to take your money. I have read that successful traders set up a list of hard parameters and follow them like a Jim Jones cult follower. It takes emotion out of the equation. A set profit margin (or decline) once reached ends the trade. There are always other trades to be made and you actually have the money to move forward.

I have friends in low places, we don't talk about money at the personal level. Most of them are just trying to survive.    If you need some muscle, I have a friend, Phamanu, from a Samoan gang who spent some jail time for killing a man with one punch. He owes me a solid for gifting a couple of bikes to his kids one Christmas. Between him and our financial advisor, I'd like to send them through a crowd of those college protesters. There would be bodies strewn everywhere.

Thanks for the update, procede with caution.

Fuelman » 09 May 2024, 8:51 am » wrote: ↑

09 May 2024, 8:51 am

I actually wrote down some numbers for the positions you mentioned. Long SLV, PAAS, AG. Puts on IWM and SPXL on March 19. Without knowing your exact position, it appears every one of those trades were in the money at some point since then. Pretty impressive!

It can be quiet hard to separate emotions (greed) from the technical side. It will cost you as someone is always ready to take your money. I have read that successful traders set up a list of hard parameters and follow them like a Jim Jones cult follower. It takes emotion out of the equation. A set profit margin (or decline) once reached ends the trade. There are always other trades to be made and you actually have the money to move forward.

I have friends in low places, we don't talk about money at the personal level. Most of them are just trying to survive.    If you need some muscle, I have a friend, Phamanu, from a Samoan gang who spent some jail time for killing a man with one punch. He owes me a solid for gifting a couple of bikes to his kids one Christmas. Between him and our financial advisor, I'd like to send them through a crowd of those college protesters. There would be bodies strewn everywhere.

Thanks for the update, procede with caution.

Yes, believe it or not, had I followed through with all my convictions back in late Feb early March I would be up approx 100%. (In a 1.5 month time frame)

Unfortunately I am not: in fact I am down about 3%. (!) All caused by ONE mistake.

I made a huge error of buying SLV, AG calls at the recent top. (I even memorized the exact dates: April 8 and 9)

This wiped out all gains from the first series of trades and even left me down -10% at one point. 

I have very high confidence these are going higher by Oct / Nov, (My PT for SLV is somewhere around 33) I lost months worth of gains.

The correct play should have been:

Take 100% gains.
Practice patience and wait for correction. 
Wait for next leg up - arriving soon 
Take second set of gains. (Likely in the 100% neighborhood as well)






 

LowIQTrash » 09 May 2024, 9:42 am » wrote: ↑

09 May 2024, 9:42 am

Yes, believe it or not, had I followed through with all my convictions back in late Feb early March I would be up approx 100%. (In a 1.5 month time frame)

Unfortunately I am not: in fact I am down about 3%. (!) All caused by ONE mistake.

I made a huge error of buying SLV, AG calls at the recent top. (I even memorized the exact dates: April 8 and 9)

This wiped out all gains from the first series of trades and even left me down -10% at one point. 

I have very high confidence these are going higher by Oct / Nov, (My PT for SLV is somewhere around 33) I lost months worth of gains.

The correct play should have been:

Take 100% gains.
Practice patience and wait for correction. 
Wait for next leg up - arriving soon 
Take second set of gains. (Likely in the 100% neighborhood as well)

This may sound a little stupid and over simplified but I would suggest putting these missteps down on paper on a list next to your command center. Read through them on a regular basis so the missteps stay fresh in your mind. Rewiring your brain is not easy. Conviction can be a good thing but it can also be absolutely wrong.

You placing any hedge bets? It does cost more and will cut into profits but can also minimize losses.
 

Fuelman » 09 May 2024, 11:03 am » wrote: ↑

09 May 2024, 11:03 am

This may sound a little stupid and over simplified but I would suggest putting these missteps down on paper on a list next to your command center. Read through them on a regular basis so the missteps stay fresh in your mind. Rewiring your brain is not easy. Conviction can be a good thing but it can also be absolutely wrong.

You placing any hedge bets? It does cost more and will cut into profits but can also minimize losses.

I have 2 predictions for this year (more specific):


SLV will peak somewhere between $37 and $40. Exact timeframe unknown but I expect it will hit the target range before October 1st, 2024. This will mark a "local top" as it corrects after its glorious run from the ~$22-$23 starting area. 


VIX will spike to 35-45 sometime this year (currently around 11-12). I cannot predict this timing with any accuracy but I imagine it will likely coincide with SLV topping (switching from SLV calls -> VXX calls is my plan, or 50% IWM put + 50% VXX call) 

I would consider IWM puts to be much safer as VXX has built-in decay so maybe like 80% IWM puts, 20% VXX if I want to be "really safe." With IWM puts you can be a bit lenient on poor timing, but with poor timing on VXX it will be disastrous. 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Just to give you an idea of how lucrative VXX calls are if you time them correctly, let's say you buy VXX calls today (strike price $15) expiring in September. If the VIX triples (which will roughly correspond to VXX tripling as well) you would net approximately 900-1000% returns!!!

And this is precisely what happened back in 2020 during Covid...except if I recall correctly VIX spiked from ~12-13 all the way to ~70 (!!!)

That would have been almost 30x your investment!

[Try getting an employer to get this theoretical lucky bastard back to work once they've 30x'ed their money!

("Nobody wants to work! Lazy millennials and Zoomers!"   )]

         

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

I used an options calculator and determined that, if I play my cards right, I can potentially net $300K this year (trading options income). This requires almost perfect timing.

With good but not great timing, I can still likely make out $200K. (This is the more likely scenario as my timing has been pretty bad this year...)

The **** thing is I would have to pay almost 35% taxes since I live in "Commie"fornia currently!

I need to relocate ASAP!   

 
 

LowIQTrash » 13 Apr 2024, 2:20 pm » wrote: ↑

13 Apr 2024, 2:20 pm

Just a little longer...I can BARELY contain my excitement

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=23qxP6ZFYas

You guys are fools. 

Im laughing in my coffee. 
 

Bidencrimefamily » 22 May 2024, 5:00 am » wrote: ↑

22 May 2024, 5:00 am

You guys are fools. 

Im laughing in my coffee.

You say the stock market was 20,000 when Biden took over.

But you never posted anything to back that up.

So let's try again..

Show us
 

For some reason the quote function is having issues today. 
It's always fun to figure out the Goldie Lox trade and see the potential. The potential is there but rarely manifested. 

Not to be a buzz kill but hopefully you are aware of this information:

 https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/artic ... -investors 

It is an opinion piece but buy a guy running the trade desk for some time. There are forces working against the small time options traders that most are not aware of. 

Proceed with extreme caution. I hope you kill it!
 

The so called experts said the economy was going to crash two years ago.

Fuelman » 22 May 2024, 12:13 pm » wrote: ↑

22 May 2024, 12:13 pm

For some reason the quote function is having issues today. 
It's always fun to figure out the Goldie Lox trade and see the potential. The potential is there but rarely manifested. 

Not to be a buzz kill but hopefully you are aware of this information:

 https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/artic ... -investors 

It is an opinion piece but buy a guy running the trade desk for some time. There are forces working against the small time options traders that most are not aware of. 

Proceed with extreme caution. I hope you kill it!

Just talked with a black guy. He said he has 4 kids. Lives in Cali and collects disability slightly over $6K/month. 

That's more than what most small businesses are making right now (about 42%, according to Bloomberg, are actually in the red in YoY Cash Flow). 

Imagine dumping years of your life + hard work / pain and tears into starting a small business only for it to LOSE money.   

I need to collect disability! 
 

LowIQTrash » 13 Apr 2024, 2:20 pm » wrote: ↑

13 Apr 2024, 2:20 pm

Just a little longer...I can BARELY contain my excitement

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=23qxP6ZFYas