Trump will not settle the war in Putin's favor because there is affinity. At the level of monsters, affinities play no role. Strengths and weaknesses dictate outcomes.
He will settle it in Putin's favor because there is no other way TO settle it.
Conditions on the ground favor Putin, and it should go without saying that Trump's hand is constrained by conditions on the ground.
If the United States were to just "drop out," Ukraine would be no more.
If the United States were to "go all in," Putin would be royally **** for the duration of his role - and make no mistake, his role is savior of Russia on a level similar to the role that FDR played in the USA. History will agree with me that Putin was the pivotal leader of the 21st century.
Trump has it IN HIS HANDS - as feckless Biden does, fruitlessly - to settle this war very quickly. Not in 24 hours. That is just silly campaign rhetoric. But quickly. He can walk into a room with the green t-shirt and say, here is the end of the war. Agree, or you are on your own with zero support from the U.S., NATO, or any European nation that matters. The green t-shirt will have NO CHOICE but to accept it.
He can then walk into a room with Putin, show him the same plan, and say, "Here is what the green t-shirt has agreed to. This is the deal. If you take it, everything is golden. If you do not, we are all in."
Now, in the case of Putin, Trump might still have to negotiate a few small matters - but Putin is going to take that deal. Why do you think Putin has thrown more men and machines and money at the front lines in the past three months than in the past year? He understands that Trump is serious about ending the war, has the power to do so, and will be constrained in what he offers each side by conditions on the ground. So he is doing everything in his power - costs be damned - to affect conditions on the ground before the rains come, and then the freeze.
Putin was unwilling to gamble on a Cameluh victory. He HAD BEEN spending x number of lives per kilometer of land gained. The number was relatively conservative. He was fighting for attrition, not for territory - so moving forward was far less important than killing Ukrainian soldiers. In the three months leading up to the election, however, his strategy became far more frenzied and far less concerned about losses. Because he KNEW that if Trump won, an end to the war would come - and conditions on the ground would decide where the borders were drawn. For the past three months, Putin has been fighting not for attrition but for territory - which is why his gains have eclipsed in three months what they were in the preceding twelve.
Bear in mind, Trump is also constrained. He is constrained by the fact that this conflict is an existential issue for Russia. Russia absolutely will not have NATO on its border. So Trump cannot simply dictate. But within the constraints of respecting Russia's red lines - Russia's existential concerns, - Trump's word in Ukraine will be law. Whichever side tells him to **** off suffers FAR beyond what might be gained by continuing the war.
When you complain, ur friends roll their eyes and ur enemies rejoice
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Who cuts off your dick is not a friend
An opinion you won't defend is not your own
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