Liberal Forum

You bought the Shyt.. Toyota

Fuelman » 04 Apr 2025, 5:07 pm » wrote: ↑

04 Apr 2025, 5:07 pm

I imagine there was plenty of money made the last 2 days. 
Read an article earlier about traders sitting on calls and some of them got crushed, may never trade again.

I'll find out the damage in the morning, it's not going to be pretty!

Rico “Eggplant” Suave aka BlackVeggie will be ecstatic when tRumP gives this speech in 2028

https://youtu.be/1SFz6AsUUrQ

   

Suicide hotlines, soup kitchens, thrift stores

Bullish on those…and of course 20-30 yr US government bonds when the crash approaches 

Also bullish on these in 2027-2028:

Draft dodging “assistance” services

Campbell’s Soup

Local churches providing charity services

Zion Don will drag us into a war on behalf of the

G E U Z 

Blackvegetable » 04 Apr 2025, 3:39 pm » wrote: ↑

04 Apr 2025, 3:39 pm

Down 11% in 2 days.

Kill yourself.

https://x.com/PolitiBunny/status/190823 ... t-n2655020

LowIQTrash » 04 Apr 2025, 8:27 pm » wrote: ↑

04 Apr 2025, 8:27 pm

Also bullish on these in 2027-2028:

Draft dodging “assistance” services

Campbell’s Soup

Local churches providing charity services

Zion Don will drag us into a war on behalf of the

G E U Z

https://x.com/PolitiBunny/status/190823 ... t-n2655020

*Beekeeper » 05 Apr 2025, 4:58 am » wrote: ↑

05 Apr 2025, 4:58 am

https://x.com/PolitiBunny/status/190823 ... t-n2655020

Dumb, oblivious **** on X


Reality


 

LowIQTrash » 04 Apr 2025, 3:41 pm » wrote: ↑

04 Apr 2025, 3:41 pm

My account is up 100% today 

God bless Donald J Trump

@Fuelman  
 
I see a rally coming soon (not quite yet, maybe a few more weeks) that will take us to ATH

Then the biggest crash since 1932

  I suppose I feel better knowing you got some of my money.
Down just a bit over $50k or 6.4%.

That time frame to be a retirement account millionaire just got extended a few years. Damnit! Or never which is a possibility.
 

Fuelman » 05 Apr 2025, 8:58 am » wrote: ↑

05 Apr 2025, 8:58 am

  I suppose I feel better knowing you got some of my money.
Down just a bit over $50k or 6.4%.

That time frame to be a retirement account millionaire just got extended a few years. Damnit! Or never which is a possibility.

Nah, I bought puts on specific stocks. One of them was Intercontinental Exchange. Very unlikely you hold those. 

My gains came at the expense of some dumb hedge fund on Wall St who sold puts on “strong stocks that resisted the selloff” in Feb and March.

In retrospect I should have bet against IWM much sooner, but by now it’s close to bottoming so no point. 
 

LowIQTrash » 05 Apr 2025, 10:14 am » wrote: ↑

05 Apr 2025, 10:14 am

Nah, I bought puts on specific stocks. One of them was Intercontinental Exchange. Very unlikely you hold those. 

My gains came at the expense of some dumb hedge fund on Wall St who sold puts on “strong stocks that resisted the selloff” in Feb and March.

In retrospect I should have bet against IWM much sooner, but by now it’s close to bottoming so no point.

You going to hold those puts a few days more?

Monday will be a toss up but I wouldn't be surprised if the slide continues.
 

Fuelman » 05 Apr 2025, 10:29 am » wrote: ↑

05 Apr 2025, 10:29 am

You going to hold those puts a few days more?

Monday will be a toss up but I wouldn't be surprised if the slide continues.

No, I am only holding short positions against gold miners, gold, and At&T stock. Those are less than halfway to their bottoming point and have much more to fall. 

The others fell much harder in the selloff and while there is still room to fall, I calculated the gains and determined it wasn’t worth it due to something called “IV compression.”

Let’s say you buy a call option on a stock currently at 100, that normally has an IV (implied volatility) of 30%.

The stock surges to $120. You calculate the likely next topping point at $130. The question is do you hold? The answer isn’t that simple. 

Because the stock moved unexpectedly (unexpected by the market’s views, not yours), the IV surges to 65%. This IV expansion is basically a “bonus” to the gains you already made. 

If you choose to hold until $130, yes the additional price movement will increase the value of your calls, but you deal with the risk that the IV by then will have settled to its normal baseline of 30%.

Your “IV expansion” bonus gets wiped out. You also continue to hold the risk that the stock tops lower than your $130 estimate. 

Many of the options I sold have downside left, but the IVs almost doubled. This is a 2-3 standard deviation event (very rare) and I determined it wasn’t worth it, because now I not ONLY have to deal with the risk that there is a sudden, frenzied rally in the stock, but the IV gets crushed back down. That would wipe out at least half the gains. 

——————————

2 of the put options I bought went up 217% and 312% respectively. Before I bought those, I estimated I could net around 270% and 290% respectively. Just a few inches away. 

My target has been almost reached even before the price point converged to the intended destination, and I determined the headache of worrying about a sudden, unexpected rally wasn’t worth losing sleep. 

“It is better to sleep well than eat well”
 
On the other hand, gold miners and gold fell much more slowly and there is significantly more downside ahead. So I am not afraid to hold those for longer. 

*Beekeeper » 03 Apr 2025, 6:31 am » wrote: ↑

03 Apr 2025, 6:31 am

The STUPIDITY of "investors" on how these tariffs will actually benefit American companies is astounding.

Once they realize that American factories will soon be producing goods that used to be produced in slave labor nations, the buying will begin. Because you can rest assured that much if not all of our former manufacturing self WILL be restored. Things like textiles, components for ALL things being assembled here like appliances, automobiles, and other "hard goods". That level of competition will also bring down prices and tell China, Indonesia, and other pacific rim nations to "go **** yourself". It ALSO makes the US of A much more secure in not relying on someone else to get things we need here when needed. Like computer chips, electronics, etc.

Add to this, the AMERICAN WORKERS understand that this not just preserves their jobs from be shipped overseas, but WILL open doors for more top paying jobs in pretty much ALL sectors of society.

Eventually I agree but we tore down most them old factories and mills redevoloped the properties into condos, parks , and shopping centers.

Realistically how long will it take to build new factories.

Another unknown will companies and corporations just bite it 4 now hoping for new change in government policy and administration in the future.

I do hope we become more "Self-Sufficient" eventually but I do think there is gonna be some bumps in that road and we had better plan ahead for that too

 

LowIQTrash » 05 Apr 2025, 11:38 am » wrote: ↑

05 Apr 2025, 11:38 am

No, I am only holding short positions against gold miners, gold, and At&T stock. Those are less than halfway to their bottoming point and have much more to fall. 

The others fell much harder in the selloff and while there is still room to fall, I calculated the gains and determined it wasn’t worth it due to something called “IV compression.”

Let’s say you buy a call option on a stock currently at 100, that normally has an IV (implied volatility) of 30%.

The stock surges to $120. You calculate the likely next topping point at $130. The question is do you hold? The answer isn’t that simple. 

Because the stock moved unexpectedly (unexpected by the market’s views, not yours), the IV surges to 65%. This IV expansion is basically a “bonus” to the gains you already made. 

If you choose to hold until $130, yes the additional price movement will increase the value of your calls, but you deal with the risk that the IV by then will have settled to its normal baseline of 30%.

Your “IV expansion” bonus gets wiped out. You also continue to hold the risk that the stock tops lower than your $130 estimate. 

Many of the options I sold have downside left, but the IVs almost doubled. This is a 2-3 standard deviation event (very rare) and I determined it wasn’t worth it, because now I not ONLY have to deal with the risk that there is a sudden, frenzied rally in the stock, but the IV gets crushed back down. That would wipe out at least half the gains. 

——————————

2 of the put options I bought went up 217% and 312% respectively. Before I bought those, I estimated I could net around 270% and 290% respectively. Just a few inches away. 

My target has been almost reached even before the price point converged to the intended destination, and I determined the headache of worrying about a sudden, unexpected rally wasn’t worth losing sleep. 

“It is better to sleep well than eat well”
 
On the other hand, gold miners and gold fell much more slowly and there is significantly more downside ahead. So I am not afraid to hold those for longer.

Nice, hope you get a flurry of wins.
The process is much more complicated than the beginners know. 
 

Fuelman » 05 Apr 2025, 12:35 pm » wrote: ↑

05 Apr 2025, 12:35 pm

Nice, hope you get a flurry of wins.
The process is much more complicated than the beginners know.

Yeah, I noticed the vast majority of rookies like to play options on the usual culprits like Nvidia, Tesla, and other hyped up stocks (Palantir, Robinhood, Sofi). I avoid them unless those stocks become very hated (some of them are close to achieving that status). 

 
 

Fuelman » 05 Apr 2025, 10:29 am » wrote: ↑

05 Apr 2025, 10:29 am

You going to hold those puts a few days more?

Monday will be a toss up but I wouldn't be surprised if the slide continues.

WELL... Bear markets rarely go all the way to the bottom in one move... so, we should be close to a "bounce" and expect one within a week or so !   HOWEVER... How far we fall is in the hands of EACH and every nation out there who was affected by the "Trump Tariffs"... MOST of who will be able to come to a quick resolution by agreeing to some "More Fair" trade policy with America... BUT, places like China, Russia, and other aggressive, anti-democracy, war mongering nations... FOR THEM, it will be tougher. 

Personally, I think: 1) there will be a couple nations like maybe India, Canada, Mexico, Japan and Korea who strike a deal, then... 2) HOPEFULLY the market correction is enough of a scare for the markets, and their economies, that the fed starts lowering interest rates... seeing THAT... 3)  The other domino nations will get nervous and start to quickly fall... and 4) The Stock market starts to BOOM again (in? ...lets say 2 months)...

HOWEVER, ONE way or another... America (i.e. Trump) is looking to: A)  Refinance the American debt to much lower rates... B) Bring industry BACK to America, Stoke the American economy & PUT American back to work...  C) Make the Markets MORE FAIR for America INTO the future, PUT America on a MUCH BETTER fiscal, economic, and pro American track... and D) MAKE America GREAT Again !!

AND if you small brained MORONS out there think THIS was NOT all part of the PLAN.... I have some swamp land in Saudi Arabia I can sell you... CHEAP !!
 

ConservativeWave » 05 Apr 2025, 1:12 pm » wrote: ↑

05 Apr 2025, 1:12 pm

WELL... Bear markets rarely go all the way to the bottom in one move... so, we should be close to a "bounce" and expect one within a week or so !   HOWEVER... How far we fall is in the hands of EACH and every nation out there who was affected by the "Trump Tariffs"... MOST of who will be able to come to a quick resolution by agreeing to some "More Fair" trade policy with America... BUT, places like China, Russia, and other aggressive, anti-democracy, war mongering nations... FOR THEM, it will be tougher. 

Personally, I think: 1) there will be a couple nations like maybe India, Canada, Mexico, Japan and Korea who strike a deal, then... 2) HOPEFULLY the market correction is enough of a scare for the markets, and their economies, that the fed starts lowering interest rates... seeing THAT... 3)  The other domino nations will get nervous and start to quickly fall... and 4) The Stock market starts to BOOM again (in? ...lets say 2 months)...

HOWEVER, ONE way or another... America (i.e. Trump) is looking to: A)  Refinance the American debt to much lower rates... B) Bring industry BACK to America, Stoke the American economy & PUT American back to work...  C) Make the Markets MORE FAIR for America INTO the future, PUT America on a MUCH BETTER fiscal, economic, and pro American track... and D) MAKE America GREAT Again !!

AND if you small brained MORONS out there think THIS was NOT all part of the PLAN.... I have some swamp land in Saudi Arabia I can sell you... CHEAP !!

I like the big picture agenda, if progress doesn't happen fairly quickly though the mid-terms could become pretty dicey.
Interesting times.
 

nefarious101 » 03 Apr 2025, 6:14 am » wrote: ↑

03 Apr 2025, 6:14 am

We deserve rough days for awhile since we stupidly allowed the Pedo=Progs to do what they done to our great country

but once fixed....it's game on....the EMPIRE Strike back!

ROG62 avatar ROG62 +2 03 Apr 2025, 10:04 am

How will we know?

ConservativeWave » 05 Apr 2025, 1:12 pm » wrote: ↑

05 Apr 2025, 1:12 pm

WELL... Bear markets rarely go all the way to the bottom in one move... so, we should be close to a "bounce" and expect one within a week or so !   HOWEVER... How far we fall is in the hands of EACH and every nation out there who was affected by the "Trump Tariffs"... MOST of who will be able to come to a quick resolution by agreeing to some "More Fair" trade policy with America... BUT, places like China, Russia, and other aggressive, anti-democracy, war mongering nations... FOR THEM, it will be tougher. 

Personally, I think: 1) there will be a couple nations like maybe India, Canada, Mexico, Japan and Korea who strike a deal, then... 2) HOPEFULLY the market correction is enough of a scare for the markets, and their economies, that the fed starts lowering interest rates... seeing THAT... 3)  The other domino nations will get nervous and start to quickly fall... and 4) The Stock market starts to BOOM again (in? ...lets say 2 months)...

HOWEVER, ONE way or another... America (i.e. Trump) is looking to: A)  Refinance the American debt to much lower rates... B) Bring industry BACK to America, Stoke the American economy & PUT American back to work...  C) Make the Markets MORE FAIR for America INTO the future, PUT America on a MUCH BETTER fiscal, economic, and pro American track... and D) MAKE America GREAT Again !!

AND if you small brained MORONS out there think THIS was NOT all part of the PLAN.... I have some swamp land in Saudi Arabia I can sell you... CHEAP !!

 

A)  Refinance the American debt to much lower rates

How do you believe he will do so?



(I confess, this makes me feel a bit dirty.)
 

Blackvegetable » 05 Apr 2025, 2:12 pm » wrote: ↑

05 Apr 2025, 2:12 pm

How will we know?

uh...you won't...you're a dickhead....focus on breathing

Fuelman » 05 Apr 2025, 2:02 pm » wrote: ↑

05 Apr 2025, 2:02 pm

I like the big picture agenda, if progress doesn't happen fairly quickly though the mid-terms could become pretty dicey.
Interesting times.

I really don't think the rest of the world will be able to justify waiting very long... FOR a NUMBER of reasons... America is the biggest consumer market in the world, and ALL they will be doing if they DON'T make a deal FAST... Is:

1)  Encouraging more and more Americans entrepreneurs to start making all the "gadgets" that we have been buying from somewhere... PROBABLY making it cost effective by incorporating robotics and AI... it will be absorbed by Americans. 

2)  Donald Trump WANTS America to become more self sufficient, so, DON'T expect him to cave quickly, and

3)  Whats more... it ALREADY sounds like America is close to deals with a number of nations... India, Viet Nam, Mexico... & maybe others.  IF America just comes to a deal with Mexico, Canada, India, and Viet Nam... the DIKE will have been BREACHED... and it will be a world Wide game of musical chairs !!

SOME might say Donald Trump is too DUMB to come up with this stuff... BUT... ALL I have to do watch the "Trump on Oprah Winfrey" interview, from 35 years ago, and KNOW... THEY are ALL FULL of "CRAP"... because Donald Trump is DOING what he SAID he would do ALL those YEARS AGO!!

DROP the MIKE !!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SEPs17_AkTI

 
 

Blackvegetable » 05 Apr 2025, 5:05 am » wrote: ↑

05 Apr 2025, 5:05 am

Dumb, oblivious **** on X

Reality

Lying traitor *** bastard!