Liberal Forum

Fuelman » 28 Apr 2025, 9:12 am » wrote: ↑

28 Apr 2025, 9:12 am

You aren't the only one sounding the alarm.

It’s Not Bad, It’s Horrible

Both of these stocks have fallen below their respective 20% discount from their highs, meaning the market

Ray Dalio believes we are at the cusp of a 100 yr long debt cycle. Short term debt cycles cause less severe recessions like the ones in 1963 and 1990. 

The debt piled into the system has gone exponential over the last 40+ yrs, and when the credit stops people (esp those close to or even in retirement) will have no choice but to sell their assets, esp paper assets as those are more volatile than “tangible assets” such as real estate.

This will cause a cascade of investors rushing for the exits. Generational wealth can be made during stock market crashes. 


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There is also a non-trivial probability China will attempt to annex Taiwan before the end of 2027, according to the Pentagon’s own reports. Were such a scenario to play out, trade between China and the US would collapse, which would trigger another freefall in stock prices.

(Limit down days like -10%, -15% would not surprise me. We could go from 4000 SPX to 3500 SPX in one or two days). 

LowIQTrash » 28 Apr 2025, 2:05 pm » wrote: ↑

28 Apr 2025, 2:05 pm

Ray Dalio believes we are at the cusp of a 100 yr long debt cycle. Short term debt cycles cause less severe recessions like the ones in 1963 and 1990. 

The debt piled into the system has gone exponential over the last 40+ yrs, and when the credit stops people (esp those close to or even in retirement) will have no choice but to sell their assets, esp paper assets as those are more volatile than “tangible assets” such as real estate.

This will cause a cascade of investors rushing for the exits. Generational wealth can be made during stock market crashes. 

—————————

There is also a non-trivial probability China will attempt to annex Taiwan before the end of 2027, according to the Pentagon’s own reports. Were such a scenario to play out, trade between China and the US would collapse, which would trigger another freefall in stock prices.

(Limit down days like -10%, -15% would not surprise me. We could go from 4000 SPX to 3500 SPX in one or two days).

  Thanks for the homework! I'll have to read up on that a bit.
 

LowIQTrash » 28 Apr 2025, 2:05 pm » wrote: ↑

28 Apr 2025, 2:05 pm

Ray Dalio believes we are at the cusp of a 100 yr long debt cycle. Short term debt cycles cause less severe recessions like the ones in 1963 and 1990. 

The debt piled into the system has gone exponential over the last 40+ yrs, and when the credit stops people (esp those close to or even in retirement) will have no choice but to sell their assets, esp paper assets as those are more volatile than “tangible assets” such as real estate.

This will cause a cascade of investors rushing for the exits. Generational wealth can be made during stock market crashes. 


—————————

There is also a non-trivial probability China will attempt to annex Taiwan before the end of 2027, according to the Pentagon’s own reports. Were such a scenario to play out, trade between China and the US would collapse, which would trigger another freefall in stock prices.

(Limit down days like -10%, -15% would not surprise me. We could go from 4000 SPX to 3500 SPX in one or two days). 

oops accidental double post

LowIQTrash » 28 Apr 2025, 2:05 pm » wrote: ↑

28 Apr 2025, 2:05 pm

Ray Dalio believes we are at the cusp of a 100 yr long debt cycle. Short term debt cycles cause less severe recessions like the ones in 1963 and 1990. 

The debt piled into the system has gone exponential over the last 40+ yrs, and when the credit stops people (esp those close to or even in retirement) will have no choice but to sell their assets, esp paper assets as those are more volatile than “tangible assets” such as real estate.

This will cause a cascade of investors rushing for the exits. Generational wealth can be made during stock market crashes. 


—————————

There is also a non-trivial probability China will attempt to annex Taiwan before the end of 2027, according to the Pentagon’s own reports. Were such a scenario to play out, trade between China and the US would collapse, which would trigger another freefall in stock prices.

(Limit down days like -10%, -15% would not surprise me. We could go from 4000 SPX to 3500 SPX in one or two days). 

the debt is artificial mathematics about use of currency on a global scale. All created round situational outcomes daily here while genetics actually works eternally separating reproductions specifically living in specific ancestral lineage and generation gap by heartbeats now forward while here conceived to dead by whatever they die from tomorrow.

LowIQTrash » 28 Apr 2025, 2:05 pm » wrote: ↑

28 Apr 2025, 2:05 pm

Ray Dalio believes we are at the cusp of a 100 yr long debt cycle. Short term debt cycles cause less severe recessions like the ones in 1963 and 1990. 

The debt piled into the system has gone exponential over the last 40+ yrs, and when the credit stops people (esp those close to or even in retirement) will have no choice but to sell their assets, esp paper assets as those are more volatile than “tangible assets” such as real estate.

This will cause a cascade of investors rushing for the exits. Generational wealth can be made during stock market crashes. 

—————————

There is also a non-trivial probability China will attempt to annex Taiwan before the end of 2027, according to the Pentagon’s own reports. Were such a scenario to play out, trade between China and the US would collapse, which would trigger another freefall in stock prices.

(Limit down days like -10%, -15% would not surprise me. We could go from 4000 SPX to 3500 SPX in one or two days).

https://youtu.be/OcVL7gv54YE?si=PJzBT99gJeFJ-8CO

I can barely keep track of what happened this week, a forty year trend definitely wasn't one my radar.
 

Fuelman » 29 Apr 2025, 8:28 am » wrote: ↑

29 Apr 2025, 8:28 am

https://youtu.be/OcVL7gv54YE?si=PJzBT99gJeFJ-8CO

I can barely keep track of what happened this week, a forty year trend definitely wasn't one my radar.

It’s closer to 100 yrs now