America's 401K
By Johnny You
24 Jun 2025 5:54 am in No Holds Barred Political Forum
24 Jun 2025 1:51 pm
Also, Skans’ proclamation is refuted by the observation companies tend to grow the fastest while their valuations are beyond absurd, yet their stock price stagnates or even enters a long phase of decline after valuations normalize.
Look at OKTA: it used to trade at 50 P/S before dropping 80%. Its valuations are much more reasonable now yet the price is nowhere near its ATH
Look at OKTA: it used to trade at 50 P/S before dropping 80%. Its valuations are much more reasonable now yet the price is nowhere near its ATH
24 Jun 2025 2:13 pm
There is no one way. If the company actually has earnings, then start with a discounted cash flow model. Make some assumptions about the discount rate/inflation, expenses, projected growth, product life cycles, etc. Depends on the entity. If its a single McDonalds franchise with 5 years of data, you should be able to get this down to the nearest $1,000.
If it is a startup company with no revenue, then EPS is irrelevant - you need to find some other way to model its value.
If it is a young fast growing company with revenue but no earnings - similar - you will need to model this differently - likely based on revenue growth data you already have.
What if its a Poke-Bowl franchise, being run by someone who's never been in the restaurant business, has infused $300,000 of capital into the venture, where she and her family members all work at the restaurant - showing barely break-even revenue/expenses, unable to pay back the 300K capital. Does it have any "intrinsic value"? If so, where is the value? If not, then why not?
24 Jun 2025 2:36 pm
They are short-cuts used to approximate a business's value at a given point in time. As opposed to Financial Ratios which can be used to assess any of a number of things about a company. Such as its profitability, liquidity, efficiency, solvency, likelihood that it screws-over its creditors or investors.Blackvegetable » 24 Jun 2025, 11:20 am » wrote: ↑ This **** is fundamental, Skans
Why are Market Multiples Used?
Most sophisticated investors use database/statistical modeling programs, not simple ratios to identify undervalued or overvalued stocks, or potential return on investment.
24 Jun 2025 2:40 pm
Skans » 24 Jun 2025, 2:13 pm » wrote: ↑ There is no one way. If the company actually has earnings, then start with a discounted cash flow model. Make some assumptions about the discount rate/inflation, expenses, projected growth, product life cycles, etc. Depends on the entity. If its a single McDonalds franchise with 5 years of data, you should be able to get this down to the nearest $1,000.
If it is a startup company with no revenue, then EPS is irrelevant - you need to find some other way to model its value.
If it is a young fast growing company with revenue but no earnings - similar - you will need to model this differently - likely based on revenue growth data you already have.
What if its a Poke-Bowl franchise, being run by someone who's never been in the restaurant business, has infused $300,000 of capital into the venture, where she and her family members all work at the restaurant - showing barely break-even revenue/expenses, unable to pay back the 300K capital. Does it have any "intrinsic value"? If so, where is the value? If not, then why not?
when you are done, you will have an intrinsic value.There is no one way. If the company actually has earnings, then start with a discounted cash flow model. Make some assumptions about the discount rate/inflation, expenses, projected growth, product life cycles, etc. Depends on the entity. If its a single McDonalds franchise with 5 years of data, you should be able to get this down to the nearest $1,000.
It will either be greater, less than, or equal to the market value.
But you cannot do a better job at arriving there than a professional....so there's really no point to fundamental analysis unless you are convinced you can.
The leverage is in understanding its value relative to its peers and the market, and betting correctly on the macro.
24 Jun 2025 2:52 pm
Wait till you find out there are people making 8 or 9 figs a year drawing retarded lines on a chart or graph and never looking at the underlying balance sheetsSkans » 24 Jun 2025, 2:36 pm » wrote: ↑ They are short-cuts used to approximate a business's value at a given point in time. As opposed to Financial Ratios which can be used to assess any of a number of things about a company. Such as its profitability, liquidity, efficiency, solvency, likelihood that it screws-over its creditors or investors.
Most sophisticated investors use database/statistical modeling programs, not simple ratios to identify undervalued or overvalued stocks, or potential return on investment.
Did you know Buffett secretly employs TA while publicly denying its usefulness?
LOL
24 Jun 2025 3:14 pm
Depends on what you are trying to put a value on. Privately owned assets and businesses are much different than publicly traded large and mega-cap securities. Valuations are far more important due to lack of liquidity. Staying power, exposure to debt and protection from the downside in a declining economy is much more important. Financial ratios will tell at least part of the story.Blackvegetable » 24 Jun 2025, 2:40 pm » wrote: ↑ when you are done, you will have an intrinsic value.
It will either be greater, less than, or equal to the market value.
But you cannot do a better job at arriving there than a professional....so there's really no point to fundamental analysis unless you are convinced you can.
The leverage is in understanding its value relative to its peers and the market, and betting correctly on the macro.
When it comes to publicly traded securities, I will look at industries and companies within industries. As you said, the ratios help to evaluate companies in a specific industry or sector against each other. But, they are also "no-go" markers for me. For example, I won't invest in Tesla. Its a car manufacturer that has been around for quite some time, and has been overvalued for quite some time (IMHO). With a P/E in the 160's, I don't see the growth that Amazon exhibited when it had a ridiculous P/E. So, there are plenty of cross-industry comparisons that can be made as well. Then, there are income/dividend stocks - completely different type of evaluation going on there.
When it comes to long-term investing, the professionals do not really know any more than I know, at least within certain sectors they don't. Now, with day-trading, the professionals will generally be able to beat me. They have better, faster access to information than I do, and they can more quickly apply the information to trades they are considering. This is why I am generally not a day trader. Not unless one of several stocks I follow set up in a trading pattern - then, I'll play.
24 Jun 2025 3:20 pm
Technical investing - momentum investing. It can work. Until it doesn't. When the assumptions break down.LowIQTrash » 24 Jun 2025, 2:52 pm » wrote: ↑ Wait till you find out there are people making 8 or 9 figs a year drawing retarded lines on a chart or graph and never looking at the underlying balance sheets
Did you know Buffett secretly employs TA while publicly denying its usefulness?
LOL
24 Jun 2025 4:15 pm
Most people are **** at TA, b/c they know the basics and never bother to refine their abilities. They think a rising wedge breakdown means they should pour their entire acct into a short position or puts.Skans » 24 Jun 2025, 3:20 pm » wrote: ↑ Technical investing - momentum investing. It can work. Until it doesn't. When the assumptions break down.
You could also say the same about FA. Lots of companies trading cheaply on paper but their price movement(s) has been garbage (look at Google’s performance since the April lows)
24 Jun 2025 4:19 pm
Yeah, I like Alphabet. Will be looking to pick some more up. Their search engine sucks, but YouTube is kicking ***.LowIQTrash » 24 Jun 2025, 4:15 pm » wrote: ↑ Most people are **** at TA, b/c they know the basics and never bother to refine their abilities. They think a rising wedge breakdown means they should pour their entire acct into a short position or puts.
You could also say the same about FA. Lots of companies trading cheaply on paper but their price movement(s) has been garbage (look at Google’s performance since the April lows)
24 Jun 2025 5:31 pm
You don't qualify to participate in private offerings.Skans » 24 Jun 2025, 3:14 pm » wrote: ↑ Depends on what you are trying to put a value on. Privately owned assets and businesses are much different than publicly traded large and mega-cap securities. Valuations are far more important due to lack of liquidity. Staying power, exposure to debt and protection from the downside in a declining economy is much more important. Financial ratios will tell at least part of the story.
When it comes to publicly traded securities, I will look at industries and companies within industries. As you said, the ratios help to evaluate companies in a specific industry or sector against each other. But, they are also "no-go" markers for me. For example, I won't invest in Tesla. Its a car manufacturer that has been around for quite some time, and has been overvalued for quite some time (IMHO). With a P/E in the 160's, I don't see the growth that Amazon exhibited when it had a ridiculous P/E. So, there are plenty of cross-industry comparisons that can be made as well. Then, there are income/dividend stocks - completely different type of evaluation going on there.
When it comes to long-term investing, the professionals do not really know any more than I know, at least within certain sectors they don't. Now, with day-trading, the professionals will generally be able to beat me. They have better, faster access to information than I do, and they can more quickly apply the information to trades they are considering. This is why I am generally not a day trader. Not unless one of several stocks I follow set up in a trading pattern - then, I'll play.
I also did private valuation. It uses discounted public market comparable multiples.
equities are cheap or expensive only in a relative sense...
24 Jun 2025 7:34 pm
Like Interest Rates.. We need to let the masses just borrow money until the national debt beats Elon to Mars.Skans » 24 Jun 2025, 3:20 pm » wrote: ↑ Technical investing - momentum investing. It can work. Until it doesn't. When the assumptions break down.
With a phooking black eye.
Trump or Bust 2028? Anybody can guess better than that.
DUMP THE TRUMP SLUMP 2026!
Bump Caps Recommended..
Bump Caps Recommended..
24 Jun 2025 8:22 pm
JuCo 5 percenter...72
“Show me the man and I’ll find you the crime” ~ LAVRENTIY BERIA
"Try to get past your passionate ignorance and learn to accept what actually happened." ~ brown's unheeded words of wisdom 
If gender is not sex, why should a gender claim change what sex you shower with?
"Libruls are often fascists on vacation..."
25 Jun 2025 4:02 am
Regardless, It is critical and incumbent on you to think and to vote accordingly in 2026.
Stupid People are happier. When you start riding the Dunning Kruger roller coaster the ride gets wild and the thrill turns into a ride from terror to blissful quantum entanglement with life and death.
https://i.postimg.cc/4xsBP5Q8/descartes-dont-think.png
DUMP THE TRUMP SLUMP 2026!
Bump Caps Recommended..
Bump Caps Recommended..
25 Jun 2025 4:16 am
that's not a college course, moron. It is to qualify for a charter.
Tell me what makes you believe you're not an idiot?
25 Jun 2025 5:48 am
brown, are you this **** daft? I believe you are...now re-read...Blackvegetable » 25 Jun 2025, 4:16 am » wrote: ↑ that's not a college course, moron. It is to qualify for a charter.
Tell me what makes you believe you're not an idiot?
JuCo 5 percenter...72
“Show me the man and I’ll find you the crime” ~ LAVRENTIY BERIA
"Try to get past your passionate ignorance and learn to accept what actually happened." ~ brown's unheeded words of wisdom
If gender is not sex, why should a gender claim change what sex you shower with?
"Libruls are often fascists on vacation..." 
25 Jun 2025 5:56 am
Typical BV, like a fart in a whirlwind, he takes off in any direction.ROG62 » 25 Jun 2025, 5:48 am » wrote: ↑ brown, are you this **** daft? I believe you are...now re-read...
25 Jun 2025 5:58 am
so people are only smart if they vote the way you see fit...got it...JohnnyYou » 25 Jun 2025, 4:02 am » wrote: ↑ Regardless, It is critical and incumbent on you to think and to vote accordingly in 2026.
Stupid People are happier. When you start riding the Dunning Kruger roller coaster the ride gets wild and the thrill turns into a ride from terror to blissful quantum entanglement with life and death.
https://i.postimg.cc/4xsBP5Q8/descartes-dont-think.png
JuCo 5 percenter...72
“Show me the man and I’ll find you the crime” ~ LAVRENTIY BERIA
"Try to get past your passionate ignorance and learn to accept what actually happened." ~ brown's unheeded words of wisdom
If gender is not sex, why should a gender claim change what sex you shower with?
"Libruls are often fascists on vacation..."
25 Jun 2025 6:00 am
Why are you rebleating your stupid, Stupid?
25 Jun 2025 6:01 am
You're manifestly a moron.ROG62 » 25 Jun 2025, 5:58 am » wrote: ↑ so people are only smart if they vote the way you see fit...got it...
Why do you ask?
25 Jun 2025 6:05 am
He believes you're a gay moron, probably a British one at that.....Tunic Boy.
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