Liberal Forum

*Beekeeper » 08 Aug 2025, 10:21 am » wrote: ↑

08 Aug 2025, 10:21 am

That was answered on a few posts up. Try looking there before you make accusations that are not based on anything but your failures.

The fact remains, REVISIONS to data AFTER THE FACT because of INEPTITUDE IN GATHERING, COMPILING AND PUBLISHING DATA requires a new face to revise the METHODOLOGY!!

ALL the BLS data that is published SHOULD BE 100% as accurate as it possibly can be BEFORE it's published, not revised to ANY degree after the fact. THAT creates uncertainty and a mistrust in anything the government publishes.

The fact remains, REVISIONS to data AFTER THE FACT because of INEPTITUDE IN GATHERING, COMPILING AND PUBLISHING DATA requires a new face to revise the METHODOLOGY!!

You were wrong.

You have never seen the survey.

You don't know anything.

Blackvegetable » 08 Aug 2025, 10:43 am » wrote: ↑

08 Aug 2025, 10:43 am

You were wrong.

You have never seen the survey.

You don't know anything.

do you consider yourself a bright bulb?
 

Blackvegetable » 08 Aug 2025, 10:43 am » wrote: ↑

08 Aug 2025, 10:43 am

You were wrong.

You have never seen the survey.

You don't know anything.

Sorry, Dr Malignant, you have no clue. Try the BLS explanation for a change. NUMBERS come from TELEPHONE SURVEYS of about 60,000 people nationwide in addition to TELEPHONE BUSINESS SURVEYS. A FLAWED SYSTEMS!!

Now, go lick your wounds and STFU!! YOU GOT HANDLED. ADMIT IT!!

NOD!!

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) measures unemployment through two key surveys: the Current Population Survey (CPS) and the Current Employment Statistics (CES) survey. The CPS, a household survey, interviews about 60,000 households monthly to determine employment status. The CES, an establishment survey, gathers data from businesses and government agencies about their workforce and payroll. 
Current Population Survey (CPS):

• Household-based:
  The CPS samples about 60,000 households nationwide each month. 
• Employment Status Definition:
  Individuals are categorized as employed, unemployed, or not in the labor force based on their responses. 
• Unemployed Definition:
  To be classified as unemployed, a person must be jobless, actively seeking work, and available to work. 
• Sampling Methodology:
  The CPS uses a rotational sampling design where households are interviewed for four consecutive months, leave the sample for eight months, and then are interviewed again for four months before rotating out permanently. 
• Data Collection:
  Interviewers collect information on employment status, demographics, and other characteristics. 
• Seasonal Adjustment:
  BLS uses seasonal adjustment techniques to account for regular fluctuations in the data, like seasonal hiring patterns. 

Current Employment Statistics (CES) Survey:

• Establishment-based: The CES surveys businesses and government agencies about their employment levels, hours, and earnings. 
• Data Collection: The CES collects data through various methods, including telephone and internet surveys, as well as automated data from large corporations. 
• Voluntary Participation: While the CES is primarily voluntary, some states and territories require businesses to submit data. 
• Confidentiality: All data submitted to the BLS is kept confidential. 
• Data Review: BLS analysts review the data for any errors or inconsistencies. 
• Benchmark Revisions: The CES data is benchmarked annually against more comprehensive administrative records. 

How Unemployment Rate is Calculated:

1. Labor Force: The labor force is the sum of employed and unemployed individuals. 
2. Unemployment Rate: The unemployment rate is calculated by dividing the number of unemployed individuals by the labor force. 
3. BLS also tracks: discouraged workers, those who want a job but have given up searching. 

By combining the data from both the CPS and CES, the Bureau of Labor Statistics provides a comprehensive picture of the employment situation in the United States. 

 
 

*Beekeeper » 08 Aug 2025, 10:54 am » wrote: ↑

08 Aug 2025, 10:54 am

Sorry, Dr Malignant, you have no clue. Try the BLS explanation for a change.

Already posted it.

You can stop now.

Can you define "Relevant Sample"?
 

Blackvegetable » 08 Aug 2025, 10:57 am » wrote: ↑

08 Aug 2025, 10:57 am

Can you define "Relevant Sample"?

                           

Coming from the moron who is still struggling with defining Survivorship Bias. 

#6

*Beekeeper » 08 Aug 2025, 10:54 am » wrote: ↑

08 Aug 2025, 10:54 am

Sorry, Dr Malignant, you have no clue. Try the BLS explanation for a change. NUMBERS come from TELEPHONE SURVEYS of about 60,000 people nationwide in addition to TELEPHONE BUSINESS SURVEYS. A FLAWED SYSTEMS!!

Now, go lick your wounds and STFU!! YOU GOT HANDLED. ADMIT IT!!

NOD!!

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) measures unemployment through two key surveys: the Current Population Survey (CPS) and the Current Employment Statistics (CES) survey. The CPS, a household survey, interviews about 60,000 households monthly to determine employment status. The CES, an establishment survey, gathers data from businesses and government agencies about their workforce and payroll. 
Current Population Survey (CPS):

•  

 

NUMBERS come from TELEPHONE SURVEYS of about 60,000 people nationwide in addition to TELEPHONE BUSINESS SURVEYS. A FLAWED SYSTEMS!!

I will now demonstrate that you should abort yourself without hesitation...

Grifty didn't **** his skivvies over the Unemployment Rate. He did so over "Non Farm Payrolls", which is an adjusted head count. 

Non-farm payrolls are reported 2 ways....ADP and ESTABLISHMENT SURVEY (CES). This is a nominally larger sample of a nominally smaller population. Don't try to figure out what it means, take my word for the fact that the effect is a more accurate estimate.

CPS is even LESS reliable than CES - which you can figure out by looking at month to month volatility.

CPS uses phone surveys, but CES relies on relatively detailed surveys which 60% of addressees never bother to fill out. It takes several weeks before a sample large enough to be statistically reliable is aggregated. That is why the same process, largely unchanged since 2002, demands 2 monthly revisions and periodic benchmarking.
 

Vegas » 08 Aug 2025, 11:01 am » wrote: ↑

08 Aug 2025, 11:01 am

                           

Coming from the moron who is still struggling with defining Survivorship Bias. 

#6

 

ROG62 » 08 Aug 2025, 10:50 am » wrote: ↑

08 Aug 2025, 10:50 am

do you consider yourself a bright bulb?

The wiring's not heavy enough to carry a load.
 

Blackvegetable » 08 Aug 2025, 11:59 am » wrote: ↑

08 Aug 2025, 11:59 am

I will now demonstrate that you should abort yourself without hesitation...

Grifty didn't **** his skivvies over the Unemployment Rate. He did so over "Non Farm Payrolls", which is an adjusted head count. 

Non-farm payrolls are reported 2 ways....ADP and ESTABLISHMENT SURVEY (CES). This is a nominally larger sample of a nominally smaller population. Don't try to figure out what it means, take my word for the fact that the effect is a more accurate estimate.

CPS is even LESS reliable than CES - which you can figure out by looking at month to month volatility.

CPS uses phone surveys, but CES relies on relatively detailed surveys which 60% of addressees never bother to fill out. It takes several weeks before a sample large enough to be statistically reliable is aggregated. That is why the same process, largely unchanged since 2002, demands 2 monthly revisions and periodic benchmarking.

ADP surveys are NOT USED by the BLS. PERIOD!! the CES surveys are and NOT required to be filled out in MANY STATES. Some states do. ADP "survey" is for PRIVATE USE and often used as an early BENCHMARK to see if the BLS survey is somewhat in line with their numbers.

ADP (Automatic Data Processing) payroll data is not included in the official employment figures published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) in its Employment Situation Report. 
Here's why:

• The BLS's primary source for national employment estimates is the Current Employment Statistics (CES) survey, also known as the establishment survey. This survey collects data from a sample of approximately 121,000 businesses and government agencies representing roughly 631,000 worksites.

 

Please, try to EDUCATE yourself before you open that pie hole of yours and make an even BIGGER FOOL OUT OF YOURSELF!!

The bottom line is, what I have said ALL ALONG, the METHODOLGY IS FLAWED, the ADMINSTRATOR needed to do something to FIX IT, and nothing happened. SHE WAS FIRED FOR THAT VERY REASON!!

And it's ALWAYS the "non-farm payroll" is what is reported in the first place, boy. That's what the U6 data is.

Now, go lick your wounds, again, and STFU!! You don't know everything and have that *** handed to you multiple times a day, Dr. Malignant.

When are both sides gonna realize....

It aint a "Party" its Corporate Lobbyists ya "Vote For"
 

RebelGator » 08 Aug 2025, 12:15 pm » wrote: ↑

08 Aug 2025, 12:15 pm

The wiring's not heavy enough to carry a load.

LOL...just a bunch of frayed wires standing in a puddle of water barefoot...
 

*Beekeeper » 08 Aug 2025, 2:53 pm » wrote: ↑

08 Aug 2025, 2:53 pm

ADP surveys are NOT USED by the BLS. PERIOD!! the CES surveys are and NOT required to be filled out in MANY STATES. Some states do. ADP "survey" is for PRIVATE USE and often used as an early BENCHMARK to see if the BLS survey is somewhat in line with their numbers.

• The BLS's primary source for national employment estimates is the Current Employment Statistics (CES) survey, also known as the establishment survey. This survey collects data from a sample of approximately 121,000 businesses and government agencies representing roughly 631,000 worksites.

Please, try to EDUCATE yourself before you open that pie hole of yours and make an even BIGGER FOOL OUT OF YOURSELF!!

The bottom line is, what I have said ALL ALONG, the METHODOLGY IS FLAWED, the ADMINSTRATOR needed to do something to FIX IT, and nothing happened. SHE WAS FIRED FOR THAT VERY REASON!!

And it's ALWAYS the "non-farm payroll" is what is reported in the first place, boy. That's what the U6 data is.

Now, go lick your wounds, again, and STFU!! You don't know everything and have that *** handed to you multiple times a day, Dr. Malignant.

You don't know anything..

You can stop bluffing now.

Blackvegetable » 08 Aug 2025, 4:40 pm » wrote: ↑

08 Aug 2025, 4:40 pm

You don't know anything..

You can stop bluffing now.

You mean I proved that ADP payroll surveys mean nothing to the BLS numbers. They are NOT included in any calculation done by government.

You lost another one Dr. Menopause. Or is is PRESIDENT Malignant now??

It's become painfully obvious I know far more than you ever will know. That has to really blister your ego and narcissism.

*Beekeeper » 08 Aug 2025, 7:12 pm » wrote: ↑

08 Aug 2025, 7:12 pm

You mean I proved that ADP payroll surveys mean nothing to the BLS numbers. They are NOT included in any calculation done by government.

You lost another one Dr. Menopause. Or is is PRESIDENT Malignant now??

It's become painfully obvious I know far more than you ever will know. That has to really blister your ego and narcissism.

I said the two series are harmonized.

You don't know anything about this, why don't you just shut the **** up...
 

Blackvegetable » 08 Aug 2025, 7:54 pm » wrote: ↑

08 Aug 2025, 7:54 pm

I said the two series are harmonized.

You don't know anything about this, why don't you just shut the **** up...

ONE is the OFFICAL one, The other is NOT. Guess which that is!!

There's no "harmonizing' anything. But your vapid attempt to make it something is how you NARCISSISTS roll and why you are NEVER going to be anything more than a PUNK with your *** KICKED!!

!!
 

*Beekeeper » 08 Aug 2025, 10:57 pm » wrote: ↑

08 Aug 2025, 10:57 pm

ONE is the OFFICAL one, The other is NOT. Guess which that is!!

There's no "harmonizing' anything. But your vapid attempt to make it something is how you NARCISSISTS roll and why you are NEVER going to be anything more than a PUNK with your *** KICKED!!

Oops!!

That's irrelevant. 

You don't know anything. 
 

Blackvegetable » 09 Aug 2025, 5:01 am » wrote: ↑

09 Aug 2025, 5:01 am

That's irrelevant. 

You don't know anything.

Oh, so now that "harmonized" thing you claim was important is IRRELEVANT!! Which YOU USED to "validate" your entire point.

Trust me here. YOU DON'T GET TO REWRITE HISTORY TO SUIT YOUR NARRATIVE!! 

You're pathetic. Pathetically WEAK and easy to expose for what you are. A DAMN LYING POS!!

Blackvegetable » 08 Aug 2025, 7:32 am » wrote: ↑

08 Aug 2025, 7:32 am

The charts, five of them, indicated that they showed revisions of Bureau of Labor Statistics jobs data, median household income and net change in household income. The Post was unable to immediately verify the data. The White House and Moore did not immediately share the charts or the underlying figures used to produce them

Ibid.

Totally Stevie....

Moore added that the numbers originate from unpublished data from the Census Bureau, making them extremely difficult to independently verify.


https://www.thedailybeast.com/donald-tr ... joe-biden/

you don't say, Steve!