30 Oct 2026 11:24 am
Fuelman » Today, 11:16 am » wrote: ↑ Is that what you call debunking?
Historical data show the longest time frame for a recession to start after a YCI is less than 2 years. We are 4 years out now. The near term probability doesn't support LowIQTrash wishes.
The market-implied probability of a U.S. recession by the end of 2026 is very low, sitting at about 7.5% (meaning a 92.5% chance against an imminent recession) according to forecasting markets like Polymarket.
Federal Reserve Models: Official statistical models, such as the New York Fed’s Estrella and Mishkin recession probability model, place the risk of a downturn over the next year at around 13.88%, down from historical averages.
I'm starting to wonder why AI has an excellent track record of saying something completely different from our local experts.
Da JEWS?
nobody who does this for real stakes believed that the 2022 inflation spike would persist...it is why the iyc of 22 is irrelevant in the context of forecasting recession.Historical data show the longest time frame for a recession to start after a YCI is less than 2 years. We are 4 years out now. The near term probability doesn't support LowIQTrash wishes.
There was a time when people were convinced that Polymarket had predictive value.
Upon inspection, that turned out to be false...