Liberal Forum

deezer shoove » 19 Jan 2018 5:16 am » wrote:Just to throw a minor tangent into the mix...


http://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2015/10/07/world-undergoing-major-population-shift-with-far-reaching-implications-for-migration-poverty-development-wbimf-report


World Undergoing Major Population Shift with Far-reaching Implications for Migration, Poverty, Development: WB/IMF Report

October 7, 2015

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LIMA, October 7, 2015 -- As migrants and refugees from Africa and the Middle East continue to arrive in Europe in unprecedented numbers, a new World Bank/IMF report says that large-scale migration from poor countries to richer regions of the world will be a permanent feature of the global economy for decades to come as a result of major population shifts in countries.

The share of global population that is working age has peaked at 66 percent and is now on the decline.

More than 90 percent of global poverty is concentrated in lower-income countries with young, fast-growing populations that can expect to see their working-age populations grow significantly. At the same time, more than three-quarters of global growth is generated in higher-income countries with much-lower fertility rates, fewer people of working age, and rising numbers of the elderly.

At country level, governments with young populations can maximize the benefits of demography by investing in health and education to maximize the skills and future job prospects of their youth. Those countries with aging populations should consolidate their economic gains by boosting productivity and strengthening social safety nets and other welfare systems to protect the elderly. At the global level, freer cross-border flows of trade, investment, and people can help manage demographic imbalances.

Countries that are lagging in development and have high fertility rates are classified as pre-dividend, such as Niger. They would benefit from improving health care and education, facilitating lower fertility rates and accelerating the transition to a greater share of their populations that are working age, the report says.

Early-dividend countries that have already seen a drop in fertility but that still have young populations, such as Ethiopia, could benefit from speeding up job creation.

In late-dividend countries where the share of the working age population is declining, such as Brazil, economic dynamism is at risk of fading. There, governments should encourage savings for productive investment, female participation in the workforce, and strengthening of social welfare systems.

Post-dividend countries such as Japan, which are characterized by declining workforces and rising numbers of elderly, would do well to complete health care and pension reforms and take further steps to raise workforce participation and productivity, the report says.

Growth is expected to pick up to 3.6 percent in 2016, helped by strengthening recoveries in major advanced economies—led by the United States—and some turnaround from weak situations in several emerging market and developing economies.
Seán Nolan, Deputy Director in the IMF’s Strategy, Policy, and Review Department. “Supply-side reforms to revitalize productivity growth are essential, with the key actions required varying with country circumstances.”