Yesterday 11:37 pm
You have to remember stocks, futures, options, etc represent the "paper contract" of some underlying security.Vegas » Today, 6:41 pm » wrote: ↑ @LowIQTrash you are knowledgeable about the stock market. Tell me your opinion about my theory.
It appears that the simple basic law of economics is being violated- supply and demand.
Very simple law:or the other direction
- Supply high - demand is low - prices are low
Oil per barrel is down to $80/per barrel. But the supply is low , due to the Strait of Hormuz. It's been below 100 for two consecutive weeks. Now there is always a delay from crude oil prices to retail. Retail prices are the last in the chain to see the drop. Ok, fair enough. But on average it takes about a couple days delay. Sometimes a week.
- Supply is low - demand is high - prices are high.
Since it has been 2 weeks, it should be moving like this:But it's this:
- Oil supply is down - Demand is up- Oil per barrel is high.
My theory: People in the government or people connected to the government, or both, are shorting the stock. On paper the oil per barrel is low. "They" are providing a window of opportunity to short it, before the supply/demand law can react.
- Oil supply is down- demand is up - oil per barrel is down. Way down.
There is nothing inherently rational about how the price of a paper contract moves. If anyone could predict with 100%, 90%, or even 80% accuracy the price trajectory of a paper contract, they would be wealthier than Elon Musk.
Remember in early 2020, crude oil (forgot if it's Brent or WTO) went negative. Basically that's like saying: "Here, I'll PAY YOU to take this oil."
Idiots like Cathie Wood said oil was dead and we would never see >$20/bbl again.
At the end of the day, it's just a large casino with the dealers (options and futures sellers) making "passive income."
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Worth noting stocks like OXY and Devon Energy started their rally in April 2025, long before Iran. Never trade narratives.