David Rosenberg: The Fed just woke up and smelled the recession
maybe you hear of Beige Book

нет ?
After sifting through the
United States Federal Reserve’s forecasts and Jerome Powell’s cadence at the press conference, it seems the entire two-day Federal Open Market Committee meeting this week was spent discussing one thing and one thing only: how far and how fast to cut rates over the next two years.So why did the Fed pull this
mea culpa on Dec. 13? The answer is that the Fed is increasingly looking beyond the incoming and oft-revised economic data (with lower-than-normal response rates) and focused much more on what its business contacts are telling them. Nobody seems to believe a recession is plausible and yet the most recent Beige Book shows two-thirds of the U.S. is either flatlining or contracting outright (not one is accelerating). This is a greater share than we saw heading into the 2001 and
2008 recessions.The Beige Book confirmed our suspicion that the third-quarter
gross domestic product report was an aberration and likely borrowed heavily from future growth. Keep in mind that when it concluded that “economic activity slowed since the previous report,” that followed a statement that “most districts indicated little to no change in economic activity” and that was from six weeks ago. Going to
“slowed” from
“little or no change” is contraction when you look at the wording from a perspective of economic momentum.
https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/davi ... 26373.html