8 Feb 2022 7:27 pm
For the moment, redistricting isn't as dire for the DNC as expected. That could easily change, and probably will after what Cook Political tweeted on the 3rd of February.
Obviously, the SC was fine with disfranchising black people in Alabama.
https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1 ... 1036964864
NEW: for the first time, Dems have taken the lead on @CookPolitical's 2022 redistricting scorecard. After favorable developments in NY, AL, PA et. al., they're on track to net 2-3 seats from new maps vs. old ones.*
*There's still quite a bit of uncertainty in:
- FL, where Rs are debating how aggressive to be
- NC/OH, where courts may order big changes to GOP maps
- PA, where the state Sup Ct will select a map
- AL/LA/SC, where SCOTUS could decide on additional Black opportunity seats
*Evergreen disclaimer: this doesn't mean Dems are on track to gain House seats *overall* in 2022. A 2-3 seat redistricting gain is significant, but a 42% Biden approval rating could be worth several dozen seats to the GOP in November.
In full disclosure, a component of the shift in our scorecard's outlook is methodological. We're comparing the new maps to how districts *could* have broken down in '22 had lines not changed - hence GOP -0.5 each in NV/OR, even though Rs won't lose any seats there.
Obviously, the SC was fine with disfranchising black people in Alabama.
https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1 ... 1036964864
NEW: for the first time, Dems have taken the lead on @CookPolitical's 2022 redistricting scorecard. After favorable developments in NY, AL, PA et. al., they're on track to net 2-3 seats from new maps vs. old ones.*
*There's still quite a bit of uncertainty in:
- FL, where Rs are debating how aggressive to be
- NC/OH, where courts may order big changes to GOP maps
- PA, where the state Sup Ct will select a map
- AL/LA/SC, where SCOTUS could decide on additional Black opportunity seats
*Evergreen disclaimer: this doesn't mean Dems are on track to gain House seats *overall* in 2022. A 2-3 seat redistricting gain is significant, but a 42% Biden approval rating could be worth several dozen seats to the GOP in November.
In full disclosure, a component of the shift in our scorecard's outlook is methodological. We're comparing the new maps to how districts *could* have broken down in '22 had lines not changed - hence GOP -0.5 each in NV/OR, even though Rs won't lose any seats there.