Today 8:46 am
Are we really in a massive bubble or have the dynamics for Wall Street changed in a way that breaks the usual indicators and make them less reliable?LowIQTrash » Yesterday, 4:51 pm » wrote: ↑ Some highly erratic behavior going into July just FYI
Wall St traders use dispersion as a calculation to determine where we are in a cycle. Dispersion measures the differentials between advancing and declining stocks.
Basically during a healthy and sustainable rally, dispersion is low as the vast majority of (non-**** / non-penny pump and dump) stocks advance. This was true in 2012, 2017, 2020 after Covid, etc.
During a bear market almost everything collapses.
In both situations dispersion is low.
We are at a stage where dispersion is extremely high which means th3 bull cycle is almost over. You can't have an index making continual ATH off the backs off 9% of its constituents.
Could this be the new normal?
Interesting read, I'll post just the conclusion but worth reading the article.
We’re Not in a Bubble. Wall Street Just Hasn’t Caught Up With the New ‘Physics’ of the Stock Market.
We’re Not in a Bubble. Wall Street Just Hasn’t Caught Up With the New ‘Physics’ of the Stock Market. https://share.google/PYR741Tjkra5kWVbt
Conclusion
Let's return to our Buffett Indicator of 228%. Does this number mean we find ourselves in the scariest bubble in history?
No. We simply find ourselves in an economy with absolutely new physics.
This is not a bubble of empty promises, like the one that created the dot-com crash in 2000, when companies without revenue cost billions. The current valuation of the market is based on absolutely real, record profitability.
We have survived a structural shift; automation, software and now AI have allowed companies to forever change the structure of costs. Profit began to occupy a larger share in GDP than 20, 30, 40 years ago, and the curve of income distribution transformed.
The stock market — capitalization — is tied to this very profit. Therefore, its decoupling from nominal GDP is a mathematical inevitability of this new era.
We live in a paradoxical world. In terms of base needs and the Big Mac Index, an ordinary consumer feels stagnation as the share of his or her labor in the economy falls. But the stock market is beating records because the share of capital and margins of businesses are growing like never before.
This system will not collapse under its own weight, so long as the beneficiaries of this new economy continue to return trillions back into the real sector through the construction of data centers, power stations and infrastructure.
Investors shouldn't panic because the Buffett Indicator has exceeded 200%, or because of the huge expenditures of Big Tech. The real cause for panic will be the day that corporations cease to spend their phenomenal profits in the real sector.