Yesterday 11:16 am
Is that what you call debunking?Blackvegetable » Today, 10:18 am » wrote: ↑ Of course...
The curve inverted in 22 for rather obvious reasons..
The curve has flattened because current inflation is persisting at high levels..it's not because the long end is coming down. Absent the effects of the policies of Big *******, it SHOULD be upward sloping..
The current 2/30 yield curve spread is half its average since 1980...
Historical data show the longest time frame for a recession to start after a YCI is less than 2 years. We are 4 years out now. The near term probability doesn't support LowIQTrash wishes.
The market-implied probability of a U.S. recession by the end of 2026 is very low, sitting at about 7.5% (meaning a 92.5% chance against an imminent recession) according to forecasting markets like Polymarket.
Federal Reserve Models: Official statistical models, such as the New York Fed’s Estrella and Mishkin recession probability model, place the risk of a downturn over the next year at around 13.88%, down from historical averages.
I'm starting to wonder why AI has an excellent track record of saying something completely different from our local experts.
Da JEWS?
