9 May 2024 8:51 am
I actually wrote down some numbers for the positions you mentioned. Long SLV, PAAS, AG. Puts on IWM and SPXL on March 19. Without knowing your exact position, it appears every one of those trades were in the money at some point since then. Pretty impressive!LowIQTrash » 08 May 2024, 11:00 pm » wrote: ↑ First dead cat bounce complete. Ended at 205.
I learned an important lesson.
I should have taken that 40% gain. Why? It’s now back to -5% as IWM climbed up back to 200+. I even predicted this bounce.
Lesson #1: (already learned) Always set expiration date at least 6 mo
Lesson #2: If you see a bounce coming, book profits and re-enter. Multiplicative growth = massive gains.
So in theory, if I had a 40% gain followed up with (what I calculate as likely a 150% gain toward EOY) in the following crash, it’s 1.4 * 2.5 = 3.5
So if I put in 10K initial value = 25K gain (250% return) or initial value x 3.5
How many people do you know will triple+ their portfolios this yr?
Sadly I missed out on that 1.4 multiplier. If I am reading this correctly, this is how some "traders" get rich: by keeping their small wins intact and rolling them into more small wins. Going for that "one big super win" is almost impossible.
I'm also considering an alternative: because IWM options (and, for that matter, SPY options) have such a high theta, it MAY be a more profitable alternative to go for one of those discretionary stocks just waiting to tank.
Like Macy's for example...does anyone even shop there anymore?
This summer is fast approaching. I will wait for the 2nd bounce and go ALL in.
It can be quiet hard to separate emotions (greed) from the technical side. It will cost you as someone is always ready to take your money. I have read that successful traders set up a list of hard parameters and follow them like a Jim Jones cult follower. It takes emotion out of the equation. A set profit margin (or decline) once reached ends the trade. There are always other trades to be made and you actually have the money to move forward.
I have friends in low places, we don't talk about money at the personal level. Most of them are just trying to survive.
If you need some muscle, I have a friend, Phamanu, from a Samoan gang who spent some jail time for killing a man with one punch. He owes me a solid for gifting a couple of bikes to his kids one Christmas. Between him and our financial advisor, I'd like to send them through a crowd of those college protesters. There would be bodies strewn everywhere.Thanks for the update, procede with caution.