Liberal Forum

Blackvegetable » 29 Nov 2022, 5:32 pm » wrote: ↑

29 Nov 2022, 5:32 pm

The most famous example of survivorship bias dates back to World War Two. At the time, the American military asked mathematician Abraham Wald to study how best to protect airplanes from being shot down. The military knew armour would help, but couldn’t protect the whole plane or would be too heavy to fly well. Initially, their plan had been to examine the planes returning from combat, see where they were hit the worst – the wings, around the tail gunner and down the centre of the body – and then reinforce those areas. 

But Wald realised they had fallen prey to survivorship bias, because their analysis was missing a valuable part of the picture: the planes that were hit but that hadn’t made it back. As a result, the military were planning to armour precisely the wrong parts of the planes. The bullet holes they were looking at actually indicated the areas a plane could be hit and keep flying – exactly the areas that didn't need reinforcing.


https://www.bbc.com/worklife/article/20 ... e-mistakes


 

Somewhere there is a old joke wrapped up in your comment, Guy goes to the doctor and says "it hurts when I raise my arms above my head.", and the doctor says "Don't raise your arms above your head.". Charges him $50 buck for the office visit.