Liberal Forum

Fuelman » 11 Jul 2024, 10:30 am » wrote: ↑

11 Jul 2024, 10:30 am

I agree $1 million in retirement accounts doesn't seem like much by today's standards. It does remain a lofty goal for retirees though as only a small percentage reach that level.  ( 3.2% by the article I read )

The current group of professionals aged 45-65 will no doubt push those numbers up.
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Vast majority of those working professionals have their money locked up in housing equity + 401Ks, and I suspect the vast majority know nothing about market technicals and where it's headed in 10-15 yrs. They will just DCA like good 'ol Suzie told them to

(Spoiler: Suzie sat on municipal bonds in 2008-2009 and avoided the 55% drawdown)

And - although unthinkable to most people - housing prices will also drastically fall. Very few can afford McMansions even if they work for 30-40 yrs paying it off, and don't neglect the possibility local governments are really going to go after NIMBYs for keeping housing unaffordable for first timers.

The very idea of housing - which is a household necessity - prices going up indefinitely is already hugely absurd. This period in history (1980 - present, likely extending out to ~2030) is an anomaly. 

I will remind you: 40 years ago it was UNTHINKABLE that the USA would allow millions of immigrants (both illegal and legal) to come over and suppress wages / slowly transition into 3rd world status / displace the white population. Likewise it is UNTHINKABLE that housing prices will fall. But they will.

Something's going to break and I wouldn't bet on the status quo remaining intact.