Investors, Wall Street executives and major donors convinced themselves either that Mr. Trump was bluffing, or would be talked out of his most aggressive tariff proposals. Some of his advisers tried. Mr. Lutnick argued for exemptions for the auto industry almost immediately. Others wanted exemptions for goods that aren’t sufficiently produced in the United States, such as coffee.
Meanwhile, economists were warning that stiff tariffs, by raising the prices of imported goods, would badly undercut another campaign promise: that Mr. Trump would bring down inflation.
But Mr. Trump has a theory on tariffs that has been hardened over 40 years, one that’s frozen in place and is resistant to data that conflicts with his gut. Over many years, when he has been presented with statistics that don’t comport with his instincts, he demands that people find him alternative information that backs up his beliefs.