Liberal Forum

Skans » 33 minutes ago » wrote: ↑

33 minutes ago

Cannonpointer » Today, 10:57 am » wrote: ↑

Today, 10:57 am

Perhaps you can help me to understand how radically reducing the purchasing power of American consumers kicks Xi in the face.

It's like this. 

If I shoot a burglar in the face, who has been ripping me off and my neighbors off for some time, I've delivered a life-altering "mule-kick" to some ****.  Now, perhaps my neighbor buys cheap cocaine from the burglar I just shot.  True, he's out of luck; he will now have to search for an alternative drug supply from someone who hasn't been ripping off the neighborhood for the last 30 years.  And, my crack-head neighbor might have to pay a little more for his recreational drugs from some other creep.  Because, I just killed the creep who has been stealing from me and my neighbors who has also been supplying my one neighbor with cheap crack.

Well, thanks for trying, anyway.

I'm guessing my neighbor that's getting robbed is canada and my neighbor on crack is el salvador. But even when I fill in the names, I'm not seeing tariffs on less than 15% of their exports mule kick OR a gun shot to the face. I'm not seeing it as fatal at all. Inconvenient, sure. Fatal, not so much.

14.8% - and steadily shrinking BEFORE the tariffs. In 2016 it was over 18%. in 2020, it was 17.5. In 2023, it was 14.8. So there's already been a steady shrinkage as China's BRICS trade grew and their trading partnerships with other buyers continued to strengthen. A lot of what helped China's trade relationships with other countries was the relentless weaponization of the dollar and overuse of sanctions by every administration this century.

Just not seeing how a mosquito bite becomes a mule kick. 14.8% of trade. An owie? absolutely. A pain in the ***? You bet. An existential threat which will bring the starvation of millions and the possible overthrow of the government? Not so much.

AND THEN THERE IS THIS: China pays not one penny of those tariffs. The tariffs inconvenience China in one particular and in ONLY one particular, and that is by reducing their market share by making their products more expensive. The market reduction is accomplished in two ways:

1. Any competitors not equally gigged will have an advantage; and
2. Consumers will be more likely to simply forego Chinese products even where no competitor fills the gap, in the case of impulse buys.

So China will lose SOME of that - lets round up to 15% of their exports. Let's say half of it. So you have their economy, and a big part of that economy is exports. How big? 18.9%. So, round up to 19. 7.5% of 19% is 1.425%.

So we make their GDP contract by 1.425% with these tariffs. And that's a mule kick? A dead creep on the floor? What would a 5% reduction in GDP do? Would Formosa be able to clean up the carnage and take over the mainland?