Liberal Forum

ScottMon » 04 Jun 2022, 5:44 pm » wrote: ↑

04 Jun 2022, 5:44 pm

I am incorrect.  Studies have not been conclusive.
Do Studies Show Gun Control Works? No. (reason.com)

Tellingly, the studies that have gotten the most media or legislative attention aren't among the 123 that met RAND's approval. The best studies made claims that were too mild, tenuous, and qualified to satisfy partisans and sensationalist media outlets. It was the worst studies, with the most outrageous claims, that made headlines.

 One prominent study, which was touted from the debate stage by Sen. Cory Booker (D–N.J.) when he was running for president in the 2016 election, made the astounding claim that a permit requirement for handgun purchases in Connecticut reduced their gun murder rate by 40 percent. It is true that the state's gun murder rate fell rapidly after that law was passed in 1995, but so did gun murder rates throughout the country. The study's 40 percent claim is the actual murder rate in Connecticut compared to something the researchers call "synthetic Connecticut," which they constructed for the purpose of their study—a combination of mostly Rhode Island, but also Maryland, California, Nevada, and New Hampshire. 

 As it turns out, the authors' entire claimed effect (the 40 percent reduction they reported) was due to the fact that Rhode Island experienced a temporary spate of about 20 extra murders between 1999 and 2003, and synthetic Connecticut was more than 72 percent Rhode Island.

 Even compared to synthetic Connecticut, the decline the authors found didn't last. Although the law remained on the books, by 2006, the gun murder rate in real Connecticut had surpassed synthetic Connecticut, and then continued to increase to the point where it was 46 percent higher. The authors, despite publishing in 2015, elected to ignore data from 2006 and afterwards.