Liberal Forum

The chart above is from my Q1 2026 client call. It shows a huge post-pandemic surge that began slowing in 2022 to more normal (aka) sustainable levels.  


Then came April 2nd, 2025. We expect a substantial tax increase to cause some issues with hiring, but the haphazard, almost random way these were implemented was especially disruptive. We have not added any jobs since Liberation Day. Worse, the NY Times analysis found “Health care and social assistance accounted for virtually all private-sector job growth in 2025.”

https://ritholtz.com/2026/01/ieepa-tariffs-update/
 

What this means — at least so far — is that much of this policy has not been implemented. Despite that, the data below strongly suggests that the Tariffs have had a substantial impact economically.5 U.S. Consumers today face an average effective tariff rate of 18% — the highest since 1934, according to the Yale Budget Lab.


ibid.


But Biduhn....cumulative 22%....!!!!


damn, these people are stupid.

It's the end of the world unless you look at this chart.

Civilian unemployment rate https://share.google/sa9e3nUOGrkUaKf49

Fuelman » 28 Jan 2026, 9:57 am » wrote: ↑

28 Jan 2026, 9:57 am

It's the end of the world unless you look at this chart.

Civilian unemployment rate https://share.google/sa9e3nUOGrkUaKf49

Before I look.
Are you offering a rationale for no jobs?


 

Blackvegetable » 7 minutes ago » wrote: ↑

7 minutes ago

Before I look.
Are you offering a rationale for no jobs?

You are a lazy ****,  no wonder you're unemployed.

Blackvegetable » 28 Jan 2026, 10:03 am » wrote: ↑

28 Jan 2026, 10:03 am

Before I look.
Are you offering a rationale for no jobs?

I'm offering a 20 year historical chart of the unemployment rate.


 

Fuelman » 28 Jan 2026, 10:09 am » wrote: ↑

28 Jan 2026, 10:09 am

I'm offering a 20 year historical chart of the unemployment rate.

As a rationale for the abysmal performance? 


Taken in isolation, U3 doesn't tell you very much.
 

Blackvegetable » Today, 9:25 am » wrote: ↑

Today, 9:25 am

The chart above is from my Q1 2026 client call. It shows a huge post-pandemic surge that began slowing in 2022 to more normal (aka) sustainable levels.  

Then came April 2nd, 2025. We expect a substantial tax increase to cause some issues with hiring, but the haphazard, almost random way these were implemented was especially disruptive. We have not added any jobs since Liberation Day. Worse, the NY Times analysis found “Health care and social assistance accounted for virtually all private-sector job growth in 2025.”

https://ritholtz.com/2026/01/ieepa-tariffs-update/

Ok BV. Let's compare our definitions of Survivorship Bias and why yours is as useless as you. - Liberal Forum Political Chat Room

Deal:

Deal: Veghead claimed he already answered this question. LOL. If Veghead proves that he did indeed answer the survivorship multiple choice question below, as the question is written and asked, along with his defense of his answer, then I will agree to never come back. I am permabanned. Gone. Like a fart in the wind. If he cannot, then he is out of here for a month. Additionally, his defense cannot be "Because it fits my definition." That is a claim, not a defense. He is to defend why.  His evidence must precede the timestamp upon when this challenge has been agreed upon by both parties. Moreover, he must answer immediately when the mods say "go," That next post. Not the next 600 posts. Either Cannon or Deezer mods.

Exception: I will allow for an exception. If he loses, then I will allow him to stay if he answers it the way it is asked, along with his defense. However, he must do it immediately after the deal has been decided. Not 100 posts later. The very next post of his must be his answer/defense.

Which scenario is an example of survivorship bias in evaluating business success?

A) Believing that reading business books increases revenue after finding many CEOs recommend them.
B) Concluding that most startups fail after analyzing bankrupt companies.
C) Thinking entrepreneurship is easy because most media profiles focus on successful founders.
D) Surveying customers to understand why they chose your product over competitors

Blackvegetable » 28 Jan 2026, 10:14 am » wrote: ↑

28 Jan 2026, 10:14 am

As a rationale for the abysmal performance? 

Taken in isolation, U3 doesn't tell you very much.

Take it at face value, where we are now compared to the last 20 years.

As a precaution due to Tariffs ,we increased our emerging market equities to 30% of equity exposure last spring.

  Our Financial Planner is definitely not a Trump fan, I'm going to poke him in the eye on our next "client call"!
 

Fuelman » 28 Jan 2026, 10:46 am » wrote: ↑

28 Jan 2026, 10:46 am

Take it at face value, where we are now compared to the last 20 years.

As a precaution due to Tariffs ,we increased our emerging market equities to 30% of equity exposure last spring.

  Our Financial Planner is definitely not a Trump fan, I'm going to poke him in the eye on our next "client call"!

Don't know how good he is, but at least he's not insane

Blackvegetable » 28 Jan 2026, 9:25 am » wrote: ↑

28 Jan 2026, 9:25 am

The chart above is from my Q1 2026 client call. It shows a huge post-pandemic surge that began slowing in 2022 to more normal (aka) sustainable levels.  

Then came April 2nd, 2025. We expect a substantial tax increase to cause some issues with hiring, but the haphazard, almost random way these were implemented was especially disruptive. We have not added any jobs since Liberation Day. Worse, the NY Times analysis found “Health care and social assistance accounted for virtually all private-sector job growth in 2025.”

https://ritholtz.com/2026/01/ieepa-tariffs-update/

Only a liberal dope like you would not bother to find the REASON for such a non-story!
Isn't it a FACT that Trump has cut HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS OF FEDERAL "MAKE WORK" JOBS which your idiot Biden kept increasing in order to inflate his horrible jobs numbers!  Unneeded government workers ARE A DETRIMENT to a strong economy and that's precisely the reason has made such cuts.  

The result, you ask?
Here it is, asshole!  Let's see how you can lie about the incredible new revised GDP growth of 5.4% in the 4th quarter last year that we've just enjoyed, WITH VIRTUALLY NO INFLATION!:

Sizzling 5.4% Growth: Atlanta Fed Doubles Q4 GDP Estimate, Signaling Unprecedented U.S. Resilience
January 8th 2026 MarketMinute

 In a move that has sent shockwaves through global financial markets, the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta drastically revised its GDPNow tracker for the fourth quarter of 2025. On January 8, 2026, the estimate for real GDP growth was effectively doubled, jumping from a projected 2.7% to a staggering 5.4%. This revision marks one of the most significant upward adjustments in the model's history, suggesting that the American economy is not merely avoiding a recession but is currently in the midst of a high-octane expansion that few analysts saw coming.

 The immediate implications of this "sizzling" forecast are profound. With official government data currently delayed due to an ongoing federal shutdown, the Atlanta Fed’s nowcast has become the primary North Star for investors and policymakers alike. The 5.4% figure suggests that despite high interest rates and global geopolitical tensions, the U.S. consumer remains undeterred and the domestic trade balance has shifted in a way that provides a massive tailwind to national output.

 
 

Blackvegetable » 28 Jan 2026, 9:25 am » wrote: ↑

28 Jan 2026, 9:25 am

I am one dumb mother ****.

"it's the mortality of the data..."       

SGDFS


Ok BV. Let's compare our definitions of Survivorship Bias and why yours is as useless as you. - Liberal Forum Political Chat Room

 

Zeets2 » 28 Jan 2026, 11:20 am » wrote: ↑

28 Jan 2026, 11:20 am

Only a liberal dope like you would not bother to find the REASON for such a non-story!
Isn't it a FACT that Trump has cut HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS OF FEDERAL "MAKE WORK" JOBS which your idiot Biden kept increasing in order to inflate his horrible jobs numbers!  Unneeded government workers ARE A DETRIMENT to a strong economy and that's precisely the reason has made such cuts.  

The result, you ask?
Here it is, asshole!  Let's see how you can lie about the incredible new revised GDP growth of 5.4% in the 4th quarter last year that we've just enjoyed, WITH VIRTUALLY NO INFLATION!:

To subject myself to this or not subject myself to this.....

Isn't it a FACT that Trump has cut HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS OF FEDERAL "MAKE WORK" JOBS which your idiot Biden kept increasing in order to inflate his horrible jobs numbers!  

no.

Blackvegetable » 16 minutes ago » wrote: ↑

16 minutes ago

To subject myself to this or not subject myself to this.....

no.

Ok BV. Let's compare our definitions of Survivorship Bias and why yours is as useless as you. - Liberal Forum Political Chat Room

Deal:

Deal: Veghead claimed he already answered this question. LOL. If Veghead proves that he did indeed answer the survivorship multiple choice question below, as the question is written and asked, along with his defense of his answer, then I will agree to never come back. I am permabanned. Gone. Like a fart in the wind. If he cannot, then he is out of here for a month. Additionally, his defense cannot be "Because it fits my definition." That is a claim, not a defense. He is to defend why.  His evidence must precede the timestamp upon when this challenge has been agreed upon by both parties. Moreover, he must answer immediately when the mods say "go," That next post. Not the next 600 posts. Either Cannon or Deezer mods.

Exception: I will allow for an exception. If he loses, then I will allow him to stay if he answers it the way it is asked, along with his defense. However, he must do it immediately after the deal has been decided. Not 100 posts later. The very next post of his must be his answer/defense.

Which scenario is an example of survivorship bias in evaluating business success?

A) Believing that reading business books increases revenue after finding many CEOs recommend them.
B) Concluding that most startups fail after analyzing bankrupt companies.
C) Thinking entrepreneurship is easy because most media profiles focus on successful founders.
D) Surveying customers to understand why they chose your product over competitors

Blackvegetable » 28 Jan 2026, 11:51 am » wrote: ↑

28 Jan 2026, 11:51 am

To subject myself to this or not subject myself to this.....

no.

Friday, January 9, 2026

Federal government employment was little changed in December (+2,000). Since reaching a peakin January, federal government employment is down by 277,000, or 9.2 percent. (Employees onpaid leave or receiving ongoing severance pay are counted as employed in the establishmentsurvey.) 

Employment Situation Summary - 2025 M13 Results https://share.google/pVXuvLwdaRQtiBVS7

 

Fuelman » 28 Jan 2026, 12:04 pm » wrote: ↑

28 Jan 2026, 12:04 pm

Friday, January 9, 2026

Federal government employment was little changed in December (+2,000). Since reaching a peakin January, federal government employment is down by 277,000, or 9.2 percent. (Employees onpaid leave or receiving ongoing severance pay are counted as employed in the establishmentsurvey.) 

Employment Situation Summary - 2025 M13 Results https://share.google/pVXuvLwdaRQtiBVS7

Another **** metric.


 

Blackvegetable » 12 minutes ago » wrote: ↑

12 minutes ago

Another **** metric.

Ok BV. Let's compare our definitions of Survivorship Bias and why yours is as useless as you. - Liberal Forum Political Chat Room

Deal:

Deal: Veghead claimed he already answered this question. LOL. If Veghead proves that he did indeed answer the survivorship multiple choice question below, as the question is written and asked, along with his defense of his answer, then I will agree to never come back. I am permabanned. Gone. Like a fart in the wind. If he cannot, then he is out of here for a month. Additionally, his defense cannot be "Because it fits my definition." That is a claim, not a defense. He is to defend why.  His evidence must precede the timestamp upon when this challenge has been agreed upon by both parties. Moreover, he must answer immediately when the mods say "go," That next post. Not the next 600 posts. Either Cannon or Deezer mods.

Exception: I will allow for an exception. If he loses, then I will allow him to stay if he answers it the way it is asked, along with his defense. However, he must do it immediately after the deal has been decided. Not 100 posts later. The very next post of his must be his answer/defense.

Which scenario is an example of survivorship bias in evaluating business success?

A) Believing that reading business books increases revenue after finding many CEOs recommend them.
B) Concluding that most startups fail after analyzing bankrupt companies.
C) Thinking entrepreneurship is easy because most media profiles focus on successful founders.
D) Surveying customers to understand why they chose your product over competitors

Blackvegetable » 28 Jan 2026, 11:51 am » wrote: ↑

28 Jan 2026, 11:51 am

To subject myself to this or not subject myself to this.....

no.

What you need to subject yourself to is a dose of reality, along with a transfusion of intelligence, Eggplant!

Biden increased the government workforce by roughly 1.5 MILLION BUREAUCRATS that we didn't need, and did so simply to pump up his job totals, which were abysmal during his 4 years in office.  This, in addition to trying to take credit for MILLIONS of workers who simply returned to their existing jobs after Democrats forced their businesses to shut down during the pandemic.  Only partisan losers like you would want them to count a job you return to after Biden ordered your company to close as a "new" job!

Trump has already cut out hundreds of thousands of those useless bureaucrats saving BILLIONS in waste, but foolish libs like you hate having the facts revealed!  Unnecessary government bureaucrats DO NOT make a country's economy better but are a DETRIMENT to economic growth, which you clearly know nothing about!

How come you haven't yet tried to piss all over Trump's latest record GDP of 5.4% in the last quarter?  Doesn't that belie your liberal's claim of the impending economic crash you scumbags were hoping for?  Are you also selling short the way Low IQ is? Or do you now agree that Trump's policies are bringing the US an unprecedented economic boom?
 

Zeets2 » 28 Jan 2026, 1:06 pm » wrote: ↑

28 Jan 2026, 1:06 pm

What you need to subject yourself to is a dose of reality, along with a transfusion of intelligence, Eggplant!

Biden increased the government workforce by roughly 1.5 MILLION BUREAUCRATS 

Shut the **** up.

Blackvegetable » 28 Jan 2026, 1:23 pm » wrote: ↑

28 Jan 2026, 1:23 pm

Shut the **** up.

What's the problem?
Too much of that pesky inconvenient truth that you can't dispel?
Maybe it's time you re-evaluate your entire Trump mindset and give him the same respect that you gave your corrupt, demented pedophile and failed president for the last 4 years?