Liberal Forum

Post for any comments on the Russian invasion of Ukraine.  How many think Ukraine with recapture Kherson this winter?

LibDave » 05 Sep 2022, 4:43 pm » wrote: ↑

05 Sep 2022, 4:43 pm

Post for any comments on the Russian invasion of Ukraine.  How many think Ukraine with recapture Kherson this winter?

Should I actually maintain an opinion about this stuff?
I ask because the way you phrased your post seems like I should already be aware of the details.
I'm not because I don't care very much.

The End of the World scenarios have been pushed for so long I do not believe them.
Ukraine being "attacked" or "re-scooped back into" seems unimportant.
I never knew it was feeding the world until recently.
This "war" will cause worldwide famine. No ****.

You'd think this would have been common knowledge instead of recent propaganda.

Like Kherson. Important? Who knew but someone following this stuff. Every battle.
I thought it was a goofy looking fiddler from the 1960's...


 

Major mistakes were made by Russia at the outset of the invasion. The Russian's believed they could just make a sudden surprise invasion of Ukraine throughout the entire expanse of the border, including the Belorussian border and Ukraine would fall in a matter of 2-3 days without much of a fight. This proved overly optimistic and spread the Russian forces out throughout the border regions. They paid a heavy price, and much of the invasion force were ill-prepared, ill-trained and lacked the supplies necessary for a prolonged conflict. Once in place the Russians were unable to provide logistic support and the Russians got their asses kicked due in large part to a fairly rapid response from the NATO countries in supplying the Ukrainians with small scale weaponry. The Ukrainians were protecting their homeland and the Russian forces in many cases weren't even sure where they were, not having been told in advance they were even taking part in an invasion. Many were led to believe they were on a training exercise in order to keep the operation secret.

As a result many of the Russian forces scattered throughout Western Ukraine were slaughtered piecemeal. The Russians eventually altered their tactics to a more viable strategy concentrating their forces in Eastern Ukraine. The main dividing line between the Russian and Ukrainian forces is the Dnieper River. The Russians control the regions East of the Dnieper while the Ukrainians control the regions West of the Dnieper (for the most part). The exception being where the Dnieper flows into the Black Sea in Southern Ukraine. The Russians took control of this region early on and retain control of 3 key crossing points below Kherson (2 are bridges and the 3rd is a Dam at Nova Kakhovka. The dam is easily located as the river widens into a reservoir behind the dam in the image.
 
 

Looking at the upper right black circle, if the Russians can push through this area they can link up with their forces east of the Dnieper in North Eastern Ukraine, cutting off the Ukrainian forces currently preventing Russian advance across the river in Eastern Ukraine. The Russian forces in the Kherson region are supplied through the Crimea. First over a Bridge crossing over the Black Sea from Southern Russia, then over these 3 crossing points below Kherson. There are a large number of Russian forces in the Kherson region above the Dnieper hoping to break through the Ukrainian defenses so they can cut off the Ukrainian forces to the North.

However, if Ukraine can capture the 3 logistical bottle-necks south of Kherson all of the Russian forces above the Dnieper will be in serious jeopardy of being slaughtered due to lack of supplies and the inability to withdraw back across the Dnieper. As a result the Russians have moved many of their forces into the Kherson region to prevent the loss of Kherson. Recently the Ukrainians destroyed the 2 bridges which cross the Dnieper leaving the Russians with only the Dam as a logistical crossing point.

One might expect the Ukrainians to blow the dam. First, it is against the Geneva convention to destroy such structures. It would result in untold immediate and prolonged damage. The entire Crimea, (Russian controlled Ukrainian territory) would be without power. Massive flooding and international condemnation. Death from exposure in the Winter.  It would also require heavy weaponry the Ukrainians have yet to receive.
 
 
 

Still, with the 2 bridges out of commission, Russian supply lines are threatened and it becomes a case of defense of logistics. If the Russians commit more forces to defend it, this makes supplying them more problematic and they are at more risk of losing more troops. If they insert too few troops they may not be able to hold the region. If this occurs the Russians plans of encircling the Ukrainian forces to the Northeast of this map (Eastern Ukraine) will likely not materialize. To this point the Ukrainians have been unable to obtain the heavy weaponry needed to take Kherson. The Russians have more than doubled their forces in the region and made gains pushing back the Ukrainian forces during good weather. It appears Ukraine may instead be waiting for the onset of winter when the Russians lose much of their tactical heavy equipment advantage, rather than wait for assistance from the Western nations which has been slow to materialize as promised.

Ukraine very much needs this victory to help secure continued assistance and a supply of weapons from the NATO nations.  If Ukraine can seize Kherson they will be able to transfer many of their forces in the South to further bolster their Eastern defenses or even make inroads into the Crimea itself.
 

What a stupid fake war. Imagine still using conventional tactics in the age of nuclear weapons. **** NATO

SJConspirator » 05 Sep 2022, 8:47 pm » wrote: ↑

05 Sep 2022, 8:47 pm

What a stupid fake war. Imagine still using conventional tactics in the age of nuclear weapons. **** NATO

I understand what motivates Putin...NATO = NWO
It's hard to imagine being a Russian soldier and being motivated to be the aggressor and to kill Ukrainians
OTOH the Ukrainians have all the natural motivation  to kill Russian invaders

amazing how the Left has always been such warmongers but yet they are mostly made up of effeminate men and women who say they are as good as a man at everything until one of the NEW Hybrid *** trash them at everything. Here we are in the middle of another war.....in Europe.....doing what?...distracting?

LibDave » 05 Sep 2022, 4:43 pm » wrote: ↑

05 Sep 2022, 4:43 pm

Post for any comments on the Russian invasion of Ukraine.  How many think Ukraine with recapture Kherson this winter?

Who controls Crimea?
Who owns 240km deep into what was once Ukraine?
How much of Russia has Ukraine captured?

Ukraine is losing this war and losing it badly.  Russia has not lost any territory or suffered any major strikes to any of its cities. 



The map doesn't lie.

LibDave » 05 Sep 2022, 4:43 pm » wrote: ↑

05 Sep 2022, 4:43 pm

Post for any comments on the Russian invasion of Ukraine.  How many think Ukraine with recapture Kherson this winter?

Your analysis is interesting but I have to wonder what the end game looks like from the vantage point of Ukraine?  The country has been virtually decimated by the war, and a huge portion of the population has left after millions of their homes were destroyed.  There's virtually nothing left of the Ukrainian economy, businesses have been abandoned, and their ports have been closed leaving them with no viable way to export the wheat that's still sitting in silos from last year's harvest, with no room to put this year's crop and no fertilizer to prepare for future crops.  Likewise, there is no end in sight to the conflict which will no doubt continue for years.  And then what?  Are the millions of refugees expected to return to their country when there are no homes to return to and no services left of water or electricity to rebuild with?  And who's going to fund that rebuilding even if Russia capitulates and leaves, which is highly unlikely?

We can all sympathize with their plight, but I'm hard-pressed to understand how the commitment to years of a devastating war is a better solution for the country than acquiescing to the inevitable Russian control that would have left their country intact.  More so, I see no reason in the world that we should be continuing to fund the war for Ukraine just to inflict a minimal amount of harm on Russia and Putin, unless the sole purpose is to keep Biden's money-laundering source operating for him, his family, and all the Democrats who are getting a piece of the kickback pie that will surely amount to hundreds of billions before they're through.
 

SJConspirator » 05 Sep 2022, 8:47 pm » wrote: ↑

05 Sep 2022, 8:47 pm

What a stupid fake war. Imagine still using conventional tactics in the age of nuclear weapons. **** NATO

So you would prefer Russia to drop nukes on Kiev? 
I don't think any of those actually fighting it think it is a "fake war".
 

After six months, most of Ukraine is still free from invasion, and Russia is a MUCH more powerful ally. So the map does not show that Ukraine is "losing badly". Much of Ukraine was dominated by Russians when the war began, including all of Crimea.
It is a war of attrition, and NATO is supplying better weapons than the Russians have, and I hardly think that the Russian forces are very highly motivated.
It is at the moment, a standoff according to the map you posted.

LibDave » 05 Sep 2022, 4:43 pm » wrote: ↑

05 Sep 2022, 4:43 pm

Post for any comments on the Russian invasion of Ukraine.  How many think Ukraine with recapture Kherson this winter?

Russia is not going to run out of loyal soldiers. 

Any war of attrition Russia is bound to win. 
If Ukraine couldanage to hire napoleon then perhaps they could conquer Russia.

But as far as I've seen, Ukraine has nothing except the west sending infinite supplies in order to prolong the war.. the end result is still quite certain.. 

Ukraine makes major advances in the North, East and SouthEast.

Many thousands of Russian soldiers are in danger of being cutoff. Russian soldiers are deserting their equipment and refusing to fight. Much of the deserted equipment is being seized and utilized by Ukraine. More equipment arriving for Ukraine from the West. West is modernizing Ukrainian army away from the Russian weapons it was supplied with at the outset of the invasion. Many Russian soldiers signing a refusal to fight protest document. Many of Russia's trained soldiers have suffered heavy casualties. Russian replacements are very poorly trained and motivated. Kherson will likely fall with a large number of Russians captured.

NATO forces quietly mobilizing on the northern NATO border. Belorussia and Northern Russia highly vulnerable due to shift of forces to Ukraine. Belorussia is especially ripe for annihilation.

Finland and Sweden to join NATO opening up a wide front providing NATO many viable alternatives.

Oil prices fall slightly.  Oil production in the US to rise rapidly.  Oil prices should fall by the Spring placing additional burdens on the Russian economy.  Europe pushing to maintain and even stiffen sanctions on Russia even well after the conflict ends whether Ukraine prevails are not.  Steps being made to make Russia a permanent pariah nation.

SJConspirator » 05 Sep 2022, 8:47 pm » wrote: ↑

05 Sep 2022, 8:47 pm

What a stupid fake war. Imagine still using conventional tactics in the age of nuclear weapons. **** NATO

So you think that any war in modern times is a "fake war" unless nukes are used?
I see this as an insane statement.

Putin wants to take over Ukraine because it is a very important manufacturing  area and the best cropland in Europe.
Making it radioactive would not benefit Russia very much if it were radioactive.
The Hiroshima and Nagasaki bombs were very very puny compared to the nukes that Russia and the EU and USA have.

Xavier_Onassis » 06 Sep 2022, 11:48 am » wrote: ↑

06 Sep 2022, 11:48 am

After six months, most of Ukraine is still free from invasion,
 

"After six months, most of Ukraine is still free from invasion"  = "AFTER SIX INNINGS THE NEW YORK YANKEES LEAD THE TAMPA BAY RAYS 18 TO 3 AND NOW TAMPA BAY IS BRINGING IN THE HOT DOG VENDOR TO CLOSE OUT THE BALL GAME."    

Xavier_Onassis » 06 Sep 2022, 11:48 am » wrote: ↑

06 Sep 2022, 11:48 am

After six months, most of Ukraine is still free from invasion, and Russia is a MUCH more powerful ally. So the map does not show that Ukraine is "losing badly". Much of Ukraine was dominated by Russians when the war began, including all of Crimea.
It is a war of attrition, and NATO is supplying better weapons than the Russians have, and I hardly think that the Russian forces are very highly motivated.
It is at the moment, a standoff according to the map you posted.

Wonder how much longer Russia will tolerate nato supplying weapons to Ukraine? We invaded Afghanistan and felt justified doing it for far less. Nato weapons have killed ten to twenty times more Russians than 911 killed Americans. 
 
 

Neo » 12 Sep 2022, 5:38 pm » wrote: ↑

12 Sep 2022, 5:38 pm

Wonder how much longer Russia will tolerate nato supplying weapons to Ukraine? We invaded Afghanistan and felt justified doing it for far less. Nato weapons have killed ten to twenty times more Russians than 911 killed Americans.

How long will Russia tolerate?  Russia isn't a superpower.  They're in no position not to tolerate.  Russia is an oil company masquerading as a country.  Putin is a narcissistic dictator without any ability to run a military campaign and apparently he either isn't ALLOWING his generals to command or they too are incompetent.  Regardless, they are in no position to escalate this by widening the war to include the NATO forces.  Biden is indeed too passive and reluctant to play all his conventional cards.  So Putin has been tolerated by the US.  The minor involvement of the NATO assistance wrought an ***-kicking by the Ukrainians.  Putin doesn't want to find out what a concerted direct NATO effort would result in.  He should stick to the light-weight division as he seems to have enough on his hands just dealing with Ukraine.  And nuclear?  LMFAO.  That's always a possibility.  Has been since shortly after WWII.  If he wants to go that route, so be it.  It wouldn't get him anything and would cost the world everything.  He could have started a nuclear war without all the fanfare in Ukraine.  Regardless, Ukraine isn't the aggressor here.  It is in Putin's hands when he has had enough.  But he is in NO POSITION not to tolerate whatever we decide he has wrought.  And the longer he waits to come to his senses, the worse the prolonged sanctions beyond war's end will be.  We will recover oil production shortly (RNC will win big this election and next) and any gains he hoped to gain will never be a possibility again.

And the Americans who died in the Trade center were unarmed civilians in their own country. The Russian soldiers died on Ukrainian soil armed with the blood of innocent civilians on their hands. This goes double for the Russian "mercenaries' that crossed the Euphrates during the Syrian conflict. LOL. That went well.