Poland is no Ukraine. And, Putin knows this. He will NEVER attack Poland. His rhetoric is intended to keep NATO nations from helping Ukraine.ConservativeWave » 01 Aug 2023, 10:06 am » wrote: ↑ Poland's RESPONSE to the Belarus, Russian and Wagner THREAT ?
1) Raising their Military spending budget to over 5% of their GDP,
2) Creating a NEW DIVISION of some 30,000+ troops to be stations at the Belarusian border,
3) Raise their standing army to over 200,000 troops that they already have ready to respond to any attack.
4) Are building a defense wall along the Belarusian border, AND
5) Have accepted delivery of NEW F16 fighters, Electronic surveillance equipment to monitor the border, and BILLIONS of $$ of new western Tanks, Missile systems, and other weapons !
Sounds to me like they are NOT FRIGHTENED... BUT ARE getting READY to KICK Russia's and Belarus's asses THEMSELVES... maybe after Ukraine has has their chance... AND IF Russian and Belarus do ANYTHING that might even REMOTELY be considered provocative !!
I think POLAND may have decided they have lived with the Russian threat LONG enough... AND, if they start something...THEY, along with other FREE eastern European nations, will END THEM... ONE way or another !
I know that... BUT, Poland also KNOWS THAT...and they are damned and determined that Russia, Belarus, Wagner, China, and ALL the REST know it too... AND, that they KNOW POLAND INTENDS to KEEP helping Ukraine !!Skans » 01 Aug 2023, 10:20 am » wrote: ↑ Poland is no Ukraine. And, Putin knows this. He will NEVER attack Poland. His rhetoric is intended to keep NATO nations from helping Ukraine.
I have no doubt that in Russia's weakened state that Poland would actually make huge inroads into Russia (and Belarus) with no formidable military to stop them. The first thing that Poland would do is take that little Russian "island" - Kaliningrad, cut off from the rest of Russia to its north. Poland will rename that Ziemia Polacka. Then it will take all of Belarus.ConservativeWave » 01 Aug 2023, 11:13 am » wrote: ↑ I know that... BUT, Poland also KNOWS THAT...and they are damned and determined that Russia, Belarus, Wagner, China, and ALL the REST know it too... AND, that they KNOW POLAND INTENDS to KEEP helping Ukraine !!
I ALSO think that Poland wants Russia to know that:
1) Poland KNOWS that Ukraine would only be domino #1 if Russia gets their way, and that Poland would be NEXT in Russia's sights !
2) Poland would MUCH rather FIGHT Russia NOW, than at some point in the future when they (Russia) have a chance to re-arm.. IF somehow they beat Ukraine!
3) Poland IS PART of NATO now, and would LOVE for Russia to do something provocative... so that THIS could ALL be ENDED NOW ! and
4) That there are OTHER NATO nations that feel EXACTLY like Poland does... i.e. Romania, the Baltic's, Sweden, and others... who would BACK Poland COMPLETELY if Russia attacks !
ALSO... In my opinion... I think that Russia knows that: 1) Use of Nuclear weapons, of ANY type against Ukraine would cause an IMMEDIATE escalation by NATO to a FULL conventional WAR... AND.. 2) Use of Nuclear weapons, of ANY type against a NATO country, would cause an IMMEDIATE escalation to a NUCLEAR war against Russia by NATO !
Russia MAY survive as a viable nation if they try option 1)... they most certainly WILL NOT if they try option #2... BUT, I think it's UP to Russia !
Possibly... BUT, UKRAINE isn't done with Russia YET... and it sounds like they have blown up the Kerch bridge AGAIN (either yesterday or today)... and COMPLETELY cut off Russian supplies and re-reinforcements to Crimea using that route ! Not only THAT... they have blown up key Weapons storage areas within Crimea, as well as a key logistical center. If true, and since Ukraine had been intercepting and destroying supply trains coming into Crimea using the northern routes for MONTHS... CRIMEA is DEEP **** !! ADD to that... some media have being indicating that Russian soldiers in Crimea are being secretly removed, and the non combatant population there has been demonstrating against Putin... it could be that this was Ukraine's plan ALL ALONG !Skans » 01 Aug 2023, 12:16 pm » wrote: ↑ I have no doubt that in Russia's weakened state that Poland would actually make huge inroads into Russia (and Belarus) with no formidable military to stop them. The first thing that Poland would do is take that little Russian "island" - Kaliningrad, cut off from the rest of Russia to its north. Poland will rename that Ziemia Polacka. Then it will take all of Belarus.
Ukraine cannot take Crimea unless it goes in and ethnically cleanses it of Russians. That place is lousy with Russian nationals. They must be identified and either pushed back into Russia or eliminated. Ukraine may be prepared to do this, but NATO won't like it.ConservativeWave » 01 Aug 2023, 1:24 pm » wrote: ↑ Possibly... BUT, UKRAINE isn't done with Russia YET... and it sounds like they have blown up the Kerch bridge AGAIN (either yesterday or today)... and COMPLETELY cut off Russian supplies and re-reinforcements to Crimea using that route ! Not only THAT... they have blown up key Weapons storage areas within Crimea, as well as a key logistical center. If true, and since Ukraine had been intercepting and destroying supply trains coming into Crimea using the northern routes for MONTHS... CRIMEA is DEEP **** !! ADD to that... some media have being indicating that Russian soldiers in Crimea are being secretly removed, and the non combatant population there has been demonstrating against Putin... it could be that this was Ukraine's plan ALL ALONG !
THINK about it... RIGHT NOW... with the Kerch Bridge destroyed and the supply line CU,... and resupply from the north VERY difficult... Crimea may be RIPE for the taking... NOT TO MENTION the still occupied southern parts of Ukraine ! The ENTIRE Ukrainian counter offensive... MAY have been a HUGE faint... KNOWING that they didn't have, and couldn't achieve air superiority... and an all out battle along an 800 mile front COULD have turned into a bloodbath... THAT was all a diversion until they could CRIPPLE the supply lines to Crimea, BOTH from the North, AND from the Kerch bridge...
AND THAT happened yesterday !!
WATCH OUT NOW... NOW Ukraine can just sit tight, and let the Russian army STARVE... or wait until they run out of ammunition, and surrender ! We will see !!
No one survives option 2. Nato fighting Russia directly in Ukraine would quickly turn nuclear. We need to return to diplomacy before nukes start flying.ConservativeWave » 01 Aug 2023, 11:13 am » wrote: ↑ I know that... BUT, Poland also KNOWS THAT...and they are damned and determined that Russia, Belarus, Wagner, China, and ALL the REST know it too... AND, that they KNOW POLAND INTENDS to KEEP helping Ukraine !!
I ALSO think that Poland wants Russia to know that:
1) Poland KNOWS that Ukraine would only be domino #1 if Russia gets their way, and that Poland would be NEXT in Russia's sights !
2) Poland would MUCH rather FIGHT Russia NOW, than at some point in the future when they (Russia) have a chance to re-arm.. IF somehow they beat Ukraine!
3) Poland IS PART of NATO now, and would LOVE for Russia to do something provocative... so that THIS could ALL be ENDED NOW ! and
4) That there are OTHER NATO nations that feel EXACTLY like Poland does... i.e. Romania, the Baltic's, Sweden, and others... who would BACK Poland COMPLETELY if Russia attacks !
ALSO... In my opinion... I think that Russia knows that: 1) Use of Nuclear weapons, of ANY type against Ukraine would cause an IMMEDIATE escalation by NATO to a FULL conventional WAR... AND.. 2) Use of Nuclear weapons, of ANY type against a NATO country, would cause an IMMEDIATE escalation to a NUCLEAR war against Russia by NATO !
Russia MAY survive as a viable nation if they try option 1)... they most certainly WILL NOT if they try option #2... BUT, I think it's UP to Russia !
I say "no" to diplomacy. That's off the table.Neo » 01 Aug 2023, 1:46 pm » wrote: ↑ No one survives option 2. Nato fighting Russia directly in Ukraine would quickly turn nuclear. We need to return to diplomacy before nukes start flying.
And ya wonder why it's widely known Ukraine has actual nazis in their ranks. They were ethnically cleansing eastern Ukraine for years, that is part of the reason Russia invaded. Years of civilians murdered for their ethnicity.Skans » 01 Aug 2023, 1:45 pm » wrote: ↑ Ukraine cannot take Crimea unless it goes in and ethnically cleanses it of Russians. That place is lousy with Russian nationals. They must be identified and either pushed back into Russia or eliminated. Ukraine may be prepared to do this, but NATO won't like it.
Thankfully your opinion carries no weight.
Neo » 01 Aug 2023, 1:46 pm » wrote: ↑ No one survives option 2. Nato fighting Russia directly in Ukraine would quickly turn nuclear. We need to return to diplomacy before nukes start flying.
That's just YOUR opinion.