Liberal Forum

Skans » 10 Jan 2024, 3:20 pm » wrote: ↑

10 Jan 2024, 3:20 pm

Yeah, I know and I've been hearing this kind of thing for decades.  But, here is why I completely discount what they have to say about this:

• There has never been a time when the stock markets have gone into a death-spiral from which there was no recovery.  Even in the crash(es) of 1929, companies with positive earnings that made stuff people needed generally recovered fairly quickly.
• Money-Printing is the best argument for buying shares of solid companies that make stuff people need and pay you to own their company!  Money loses value, but products in demand never lose value.
• Inflation generally causes stock prices to go up,not down. 

If I own 10 warehouses, all leased out (with inflation rent escalation clauses) to companies that make stuff people need, and I have a list of 20 tenants looking to grab one of the spaces as soon as a tenant leaves, what the heck do I care whether the Fed prints more money?  And, if I'm a novice at owning and leasing warehouses, then why not just own shares in a few REIT's that can do this far better than I?

You may be right on this issue.  Its simply too complicated for me to have a strong opinion that it will all collapse.
If the US collapses then the world collapses.  Same for China.

I do, however, think there is strong evidence that the Uni-Polar is over
and the the US hegemony has ended.  This does no presuppose
that the US will collapse, but simply that a new world has arrived.
 

LowIQTrash » 10 Jan 2024, 3:15 am » wrote: ↑

10 Jan 2024, 3:15 am

Pinging @Sumela since this is one of his subjects of interest (and may as well ping @Cannonpointer 

If you read neoliberal rags like “The Economist,” you might think China’s economy is imploding and that this is a repudiation of Xi’s economic policies.

25%+ youth unemployment, etc

What is going on?

Well apparently Xi decided that high housing prices - the consequence of rampant financial speculation - is only benefitting a small cadre of wealthy investors and driving down the birth rate. Xi and the CCP decided to force an implosion of housing prices. 

This caused a “reverse wealth effect” where “feeling poorer” made people less likely to spend. Less spending = less gee dee pee.

But it’s worth noting what the alternative is…and if Xi actually made a good choice (or at least picked the “lesser of two evils”)

———————————-

Since the West is governed by Neoliberal Economics, which I have no doubt is one of [[[THEIR]]] creations, it seems the primary goal of Western “leaders” is to inflate bubbles in stocks, bonds, and real estate. Even though there is no corresponding increase in real production, the mere fact that someone’s house is worth more causes them to spend more money….and very often take on unsustainable levels of private debt.

The flip side, of course, is that once your “economy” (based on shuffling paper assets around) crashes because equity prices are no longer sustainable, you are dealing with economic damage that cannot be fixed within the span of 5 or even 10 years. The scars of the Great Recession never went away as millions of people simply dropped out of the workforce, while YOUR (((treasonous government))) padded the numbers with FAKE stats to make everything look “fine and dandy!”

—————————

Based on my own readings and understanding of financial markets, I can say with certainty: the secular bull market in US stocks that began in 1943~ is coming to an end in the next 5 years, ushering in the Second Great Depression.

Maybe China WILL have the last laugh. Only time will tell.

Are you the one that predicted a giant crash in about a year (over two years ago)?  

Sumela » 10 Jan 2024, 3:26 pm » wrote: ↑

10 Jan 2024, 3:26 pm

You may be right on this issue.  Its simply too complicated for me to have a strong opinion that it will all collapse.
If the US collapses then the world collapses.  Same for China.

I do, however, think there is strong evidence that the Uni-Polar is over
and the the US hegemony has ended.  This does no presuppose
that the US will collapse, but simply that a new world has arrived.

A "new world" arrived with the EU.  That has had more impact on the US than China's economy.  There's several huge problems with investing in China's economy

• Chinese companies don't adhere to GAAP accounting
• Chinese companies are always subject to government interference
• Chinese companies are far less transparent than American, Japanese or EU companies
• Chinese companies have far less regard for their investors than companies of Western nations and Japan.

Look at Alibaba.  I once owned some BABA.  Made a little money, but got out.  I got out because I could never figure out if what the company was reporting was true or not.  Two things happened - Xi decided to F- and send Jack Ma to a re-education camp.  Afterward, Baba began pouring 100 billion yuan ($15.5 billion) into China's drive to achieve "common prosperity".  Essentially, Xi said F-U to investors of BABA.  Everyone took note.  Xi is free to steal profits from Chinese companies any time he wants to. 

China is China's own worst enemy when it comes to their economy.  I've just given you an example of this - you can believe me or not - doesn't matter to me.  However, if you do ever decide to do a deep dive into how Chinese companies regard their investors, you'll avoid owning anything "China" other than the inexpensive watches they sell to Europeans, and to a lesser degree Americans. 
 
 

DeezerShoove » 10 Jan 2024, 3:36 pm » wrote: ↑

10 Jan 2024, 3:36 pm

Are you the one that predicted a giant crash in about a year (over two years ago)?

I might have.  If I did, I was simply trolling someone. 
The world's big economies are so interconnected that
a massive collapse to one would then likely collapse them all.

I think this is one reason why Russia has been so successful
through the sanctions as that 80% of the world has continued
full trade with them and many in the EU do so on the "down low".

Now this is quite different from my belief of the US as the worlds Hegemon....those days are over.
 

Skans » 10 Jan 2024, 3:43 pm » wrote: ↑

10 Jan 2024, 3:43 pm

A "new world" arrived with the EU.  That has had more impact on the US than China's economy.  There's several huge problems with investing in China's economy

• Chinese companies don't adhere to GAAP accounting
• Chinese companies are always subject to government interference
• Chinese companies are far less transparent than American, Japanese or EU companies
• Chinese companies have far less regard for their investors than companies of Western nations and Japan.

Look at Alibaba.  I once owned some BABA.  Made a little money, but got out.  I got out because I could never figure out if what the company was reporting was true or not.  Two things happened - Xi decided to F- and send Jack Ma to a re-education camp.  Afterward, Baba began pouring 100 billion yuan ($15.5 billion) into China's drive to achieve "common prosperity".  Essentially, Xi said F-U to investors of BABA.  Everyone took note.  Xi is free to steal profits from Chinese companies any time he wants to. 

China is China's own worst enemy when it comes to their economy.  I've just given you an example of this - you can believe me or not - doesn't matter to me.  However, if you do ever decide to do a deep dive into how Chinese companies regard their investors, you'll avoid owning anything "China" other than the inexpensive watches they sell to Europeans, and to a lesser degree Americans.

As long as China is the world's industrial powerhouse they will be fine.
 

Sumela » 10 Jan 2024, 3:46 pm » wrote: ↑

10 Jan 2024, 3:46 pm

I might have.  If I did, I was simply trolling someone. 
The world's big economies are so interconnected that
a massive collapse to one would then likely collapse them all.

I think this is one reason why Russia has been so successful
through the sanctions as that 80% of the world has continued
full trade with them and many in the EU do so on the "down low".

Now this is quite different from my belief of the US as the worlds Hegemon....those days are over.

No, it was a long diatribe and I printed it.
So it was a serious take on predicting doom. Whoever it was.
I should have saved it but it was in a stack of junk and well past its give a **** date...

If it was a troll by you then I'm totally shocked.   

Sumela » 10 Jan 2024, 3:49 pm » wrote: ↑

10 Jan 2024, 3:49 pm

As long as China is the world's industrial powerhouse they will be fine.

If you say so.  I would never own an interest in any Chinese company.  Just because its bad business.  If I thought I could make lots of money owing Chinese companies, and rely on their accounting and Xi staying out of their business, I would be more inclined to jump in.  But, it just ain't that way with China.  China is where foolish investors will get burned the baddest. 
 

DeezerShoove » 10 Jan 2024, 3:55 pm » wrote: ↑

10 Jan 2024, 3:55 pm

No, it was a long diatribe and I printed it.
So it was a serious take on predicting doom. Whoever it was.
I should have saved it but it was in a stack of junk and well past its give a **** date...

If it was a troll by you then I'm totally shocked. 

It may have been me - IDK.  Likely based on this sudden and accelerating
de-dollarization in the world and the quickening growth of BRICS. 

Nobody ever imagined that the UAE and Saudi Arabia would join BRICS.
BRICS has now surpassed the G7 in GDP-PPP.  These are sea-change events.
Does it mean a massive collapse of the US?  Unlikely.  It simply means
we have arrived into a new Multi-Polar world where the US is simply
one big player among other big players.  
 

Skans » 10 Jan 2024, 3:56 pm » wrote: ↑

10 Jan 2024, 3:56 pm

If you say so.  I would never own an interest in any Chinese company.  Just because its bad business.  If I thought I could make lots of money owing Chinese companies, and rely on their accounting and Xi staying out of their business, I would be more inclined to jump in.  But, it just ain't that way with China.  China is where foolish investors will get burned the baddest.

Well, your view is a NeoLiberal Krugman view.  This world view is often wrong when applied
to countries who have different governing views of their economy and especially if they
have a strong industrial base along with commodities...aka...China and Russia.
 
 

Skans » 10 Jan 2024, 12:59 pm » wrote: ↑

10 Jan 2024, 12:59 pm

" bull market in US stocks that began in 1943"???  What kind of crack you be smok'n.  US stock markets have had many bulls and bears since 1943.

I’m referring to the secular bull market that began with the nadir in 1942. Since you were not alive back then you are (most likely) unaware that at the time, the financial world had a very dismal outlook. World War 2 was raging on and US stock prices (approximated by the DJIA) were nowhere near their 1929 high.

What happened after 1942 was basically an 80+ yr growth spurt with only some minor hiccups. Yes there were recessions, but you need to zoom out to see the longer picture. 

Japan had a secular bull market from 1950-1990 and then a 17 year secular bear market, etc. 

You should not be concerned about 1-3 yr bear markets like 2009, but rather long bears that wipe out 75% of equity value with no recovery in sight. You will basically curse those who told you to “buy and hold forever”…because that money ain’t gonna return for decades. 

Insouciant Americans are accustomed to V shaped recoveries, and this feature will not last.
 

DeezerShoove » 10 Jan 2024, 3:36 pm » wrote: ↑

10 Jan 2024, 3:36 pm

Are you the one that predicted a giant crash in about a year (over two years ago)?

Nope. I said a while back a recession in 2020 and depression in 2030. My “source” informed me it’s starting sooner than that. 


 

Skans » 10 Jan 2024, 3:56 pm » wrote: ↑

10 Jan 2024, 3:56 pm

If you say so.  I would never own an interest in any Chinese company.  Just because it’s bad business.  If I thought I could make lots of money owing Chinese companies, and rely on their accounting and Xi staying out of their business, I would be more inclined to jump in.  But, it just ain't that way with China.  China is where foolish investors will get burned the baddest.

I will just point out the irony that if Xi was obsessed with propping up inflated stock / housing prices, China would be in a massive bubble. Once the bubble bursts (as they all inevitably do) investors will sell anyway. 

Xi doesn’t give a **** about sucking off investors.

 
 

LowIQTrash » 10 Jan 2024, 4:10 pm » wrote: ↑

10 Jan 2024, 4:10 pm

I’m referring to the secular bull market that began with the nadir in 1942. Since you were not alive back then you are (most likely) unaware that at the time, the financial world had a very dismal outlook. World War 2 was raging on and US stock prices (approximated by the DJIA) were nowhere near their 1929 high.

What happened after 1942 was basically an 80+ yr growth spurt with only some minor hiccups. Yes there were recessions, but you need to zoom out to see the longer picture. 

Japan had a secular bull market from 1950-1990 and then a 17 year secular bear market, etc. 

You should not be concerned about 1-3 yr bear markets like 2009, but rather long bears that wipe out 75% of equity value with no recovery in sight. You will basically curse those who told you to “buy and hold forever”…because that money ain’t gonna return for decades. 

Insouciant Americans are accustomed to V shaped recoveries, and this feature will not last.

Your analysis completely ignores what happened in 1999, 2006-7 and 2020.  Probably some big corrections even before then as well. 

• Irrational exuberance, the "New Economy" and the dot-com crash brought on by Y2K; and shortly thereafter 9-11.
• Housing Market crash brought on by fraud and silly "investors" running up to the 2006 housing crash.
• Covid Epidemic - national and global shutdown of "non-essential" businesses.

Those are 3 huge things you completely glaze over. At the time, all of these events seemed like market-changing doom and gloom machines. Plus, you offer no logical reason for any impending, systemic, long-term crash/bear.
 
 

LowIQTrash » 10 Jan 2024, 4:20 pm » wrote: ↑

10 Jan 2024, 4:20 pm

Xi doesn’t give a **** about sucking off investors.
 

No.  Xi has proven to be very adept at "sucking off" investors.  As in a big, fat, nasty, hungry leach.  Thus, why no one in their right mind from the West would ever invest in Chinese companies. Xi hates us.  He hates Capitalists.  I know it and would never put a dime in his country.  Lots and lots and lots of people just like me know it too.  That's what you fail to understand.
 

LowIQTrash » 10 Jan 2024, 11:28 am » wrote: ↑

10 Jan 2024, 11:28 am

lol…I never read Krugman. First of all it’s a waste of ~2 good minutes…and second of all the JOO York Slimes wants you to PAY MONEY to view their garbage online with a subscription. 

*insert Greedy JOO meme*

To add to your author’s argument, Xi simply does not care about asset prices. In fact, unless there is a DEPRESSION the government should not be actively goosing prices higher since it prices out ordinary citizens.

Societies produce enough for everyone to have a good life.

Seeing that no one gets **** out of a decent life is the first job of a serious government.

Tent cities in america show that we do not have one.
 
 

Skans » 10 Jan 2024, 2:03 pm » wrote: ↑

10 Jan 2024, 2:03 pm

So, let me understand this:

• Low IQ thinks there's going to be a huge recession because the S&P 500 has had a general upward trend for over 90 years.
• Low IQ can't add, subtract or read charts because he claims it has been an upward trend for only 80 years, but according to his graph, it's been longer than 90 years. And it is Low IQ's lack of math and financial skills that makes him such a genius predictor.
• So, I'm to listen to Sumela and Low IQ  - two internet self-proclaimed financial gurus and sell all of my investments, because ..............(((GLOBALISTS))).

Yet, I don't see (((GLOBALISTS))) like Zuckerberg, Cook, Dimon, Nadella, Bezos, Gorman, Moynihan, or Pichai selling off.  If anything, I see most of these companies buying back their own shares right now. 

So, do I invest with the (((GLOBALISTS))) or short them with the anonymous pro-Russian internet arm-chair analysts? 

Skans, your ignorance and accompanying DUNNING KRUGER is nothing short of astounding.

1) No, I do not think “stocks are going to go down because they went up.” That’s just your poor understanding of technical investing. 

2) I am well aware stocks have been in an upward trend for longer than 80 years. (Idiot!)

The reason I mentioned 80 and not 300 is that this time frame is accommodating based on an individual’s own lifespan. Nobody lives to 200 years old, so what happened in 1873 (the Long Depression) is irrelevant.

The typical individual in America works for 30-40 years beginning in their 20s and then shifts to a conservative portfolio upon or shortly before retirement. If, for example, the United States were to undergo a ~14 (in reality he says 8-14, so let’s say ~11 year) year bear market (which is what my source predicts) this is a painful stretch of “lost time” which, for many, means the difference eating beans and rice in an apartment or **** townhouse instead of vacationing in Spain with 2 paid off houses.

So if you had a crystal ball (or, in my case, you read from people who have had a successful track record of technical chart reading) and the charts scream “LONG bear market in the 2030s likely beginning sometime in 2026~” you would be wise to avoid investing in stocks leading up to the cliff. 

3) What’s your point? Buffett, Bezos, Gates, etc. had large committed positions in 2000 and 2009. Does that mean YOU shouldn’t have sold to avoid a 50% loss in either situation?

Billionaires’ positions are more or less illiquid (Buffett will never liquidate his entire position because that would be catastrophic for US stocks, Tim Cook would never sell off huge chunks of Apple at once, etc) so what they do should have little bearing on what YOU do. 

The fact you are even attempting to replicate their investment decisions is laughable. You may as well glorify early crypto investors since their 10000%+ gains make those billionaire heroes of yours look like amateurs.

 
 

Skans » 10 Jan 2024, 4:26 pm » wrote: ↑

10 Jan 2024, 4:26 pm

No.  Xi has proven to be very adept at "sucking off" investors.  As in a big, fat, nasty, hungry leach.  Thus, why no one in their right mind from the West would ever invest in Chinese companies. Xi hates us.  He hates Capitalists.  I know it and would never put a dime in his country.  Lots and lots and lots of people just like me know it too.  That's what you fail to understand.

The massive investment into wondrous cities and infrastructure
for the Chinese people is a love letter from Xi and the CPC.

Xi doesnt need or want your dime.  
 

Bidencrimefamily » 10 Jan 2024, 6:34 am » wrote: ↑

10 Jan 2024, 6:34 am

And American spending is setting records. The economy is humming.

it's because everything costs A LOT MORE, ****...
 

Cannonpointer » 10 Jan 2024, 9:07 am » wrote: ↑

10 Jan 2024, 9:07 am

You poor thing.

 
 
 
 

Skans » 10 Jan 2024, 4:26 pm » wrote: ↑

10 Jan 2024, 4:26 pm

No.  Xi has proven to be very adept at "sucking off" investors.  As in a big, fat, nasty, hungry leach.  Thus, why no one in their right mind from the West would ever invest in Chinese companies. Xi hates us.  He hates Capitalists.  I know it and would never put a dime in his country.  Lots and lots and lots of people just like me know it too.  That's what you fail to understand.

Wow, how will China ever thrive without your investment monies??   

By the way, YOUR criminal and [[[treasonous]]] government forbid any and all trading on Russian equities (based on US dollars) right after the stock prices of companies like Gazprom and Sberbank collapsed. I think at one point Gazprom, a profitable company with real assets, was trading at below 3 P/E when its historical ratio was around 9.

This was like picking up Chevron or Valero in the depth of the 2020 lockdowns that drove oil prices to negative territory.

Did you also know [[[Goldman Sachs]]] and other parasites made out like bandits, scooping up Russian companies for pennies on the dollar? 

https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/MOEX-SBER/
 
Since you are so intent on “aping” the bill-yuh-nares, when did YOU scoop up all these cheap Russian stocks and make out with 100%+ returns in less than one year?