Liberal Forum

Skans » 10 Jan 2024, 4:21 pm » wrote: ↑

10 Jan 2024, 4:21 pm

Your analysis completely ignores what happened in 1999, 2006-7 and 2020.  Probably some big corrections even before then as well. 

• Irrational exuberance, the "New Economy" and the dot-com crash brought on by Y2K; and shortly thereafter 9-11.
• Housing Market crash brought on by fraud and silly "investors" running up to the 2006 housing crash.
• Covid Epidemic - national and global shutdown of "non-essential" businesses.

Those are 3 huge things you completely glaze over. At the time, all of these events seemed like market-changing doom and gloom machines. Plus, you offer no logical reason for any impending, systemic, long-term crash/bear.

don't forget the coming crash when Trump got elected and ratcheted up right before inauguration day...oh wait, wut?

I wonders if there'll be a repeat this fall...
 
 
 

LowIQTrash » 10 Jan 2024, 4:57 pm » wrote: ↑

10 Jan 2024, 4:57 pm

Wow, how will China ever thrive without your investment monies??   

By the way, YOUR criminal and [[[treasonous]]] government forbid any and all trading on Russian equities (based on US dollars) right after the stock prices of companies like Gazprom and Sberbank collapsed. I think at one point Gazprom, a profitable company with real assets, was trading at below 3 P/E when its historical ratio was around 9.

This was like picking up Chevron or Valero in the depth of the 2020 lockdowns that drove oil prices to negative territory.

Did you also know [[[Goldman Sachs]]] and other parasites made out like bandits, scooping up Russian companies for pennies on the dollar? 

https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/MOEX-SBER/
 
Since you are so intent on “aping” the bill-yuh-nares, when did YOU scoop up all these cheap Russian stocks and make out with 100%+ returns in less than one year? 

 
 

LowIQTrash » 10 Jan 2024, 4:57 pm » wrote: ↑

10 Jan 2024, 4:57 pm

Wow, how will China ever thrive without your investment monies??   

By the way, YOUR criminal and [[[treasonous]]] government forbid any and all trading on Russian equities (based on US dollars) right after the stock prices of companies like Gazprom and Sberbank collapsed. I think at one point Gazprom, a profitable company with real assets, was trading at below 3 P/E when its historical ratio was around 9.

This was like picking up Chevron or Valero in the depth of the 2020 lockdowns that drove oil prices to negative territory.

Did you also know [[[Goldman Sachs]]] and other parasites made out like bandits, scooping up Russian companies for pennies on the dollar? 

https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/MOEX-SBER/
 
Since you are so intent on “aping” the bill-yuh-nares, when did YOU scoop up all these cheap Russian stocks and make out with 100%+ returns in less than one year? 

I would never invest in Russian Stocks.  Russia gets F-ed with by Europe, America and Putin himself.  I don't like when governments have the power, ability and inclination to monkey around with businesses, so Russia is "out" for me.  Same thing goes for China.  I acknowledge that I am neither smart enough nor powerful enough to take on corrupt Russia or corrupt China. 

As for American companies, I can always find a team of Legal Whores who will sue the **** out of companies that engage in creative accounting.  Not looking to out-play the (((Globalists))).  I will stay within my comfort zone.  It has worked well for me so far.

One more thing.  I'm just one in a few million that know the risks associated with Russian and Chinese companies.  One of a few million who steer clear from mafia-run rigged games.
 
 
 

To answer @Skans  question about “why 80 years”…and for anyone else curious about 2030s prognostications…I forgot to mention this earlier because I was distracted (although my argument on 80 years and secular bear markets still hold)

https://seekingalpha.com/article/434836 ... this-chart

Basically 1941 (really 1942) marked the beginning  of Wave 3. All the recessions in between were just bumps in the road. 
 

Skans » 10 Jan 2024, 5:16 pm » wrote: ↑

10 Jan 2024, 5:16 pm

I would never invest in Russian Stocks.  Russia gets F-ed with by Europe, America and Putin himself.  I don't like when governments have the power, ability and inclination to monkey around with businesses, so Russia is "out" for me.  Same thing goes for China.  I acknowledge that I am neither smart enough nor powerful enough to take on corrupt Russia or corrupt China. 

As for American companies, I can always find a team of Legal Whores who will sue the **** out of companies that engage in creative accounting.  Not looking to out-play the (((Globalists))).  I will stay within my comfort zone.  It has worked well for me so far.

One more thing.  I'm just one in a few million that know the risks associated with Russian and Chinese companies.  One of a few million who steer clear from mafia-run rigged games.

There is much more evidence that WASH DC is much more corrupt
than either Russia or China.  Really, its not even close.
 

LowIQTrash » 10 Jan 2024, 4:12 pm » wrote: ↑

10 Jan 2024, 4:12 pm

Nope. I said a while back a recession in 2020 and depression in 2030. My “source” informed me it’s starting sooner than that.

People come and go, returning with new handles for some reason.
It gets hard to put specific posts onto people.
I suppose some are right but a lot are wrong in the fortune telling biz.  



I guess I better sell my place in 2028 or so.

Sumela » 10 Jan 2024, 6:11 pm » wrote: ↑

10 Jan 2024, 6:11 pm

There is much more evidence that WASH DC is much more corrupt
than either Russia or China.  Really, it’s not even close.

When are you moving?

Tempest62 » 10 Jan 2024, 7:59 pm » wrote: ↑

10 Jan 2024, 7:59 pm

When are you moving?

Prolly take an exlax tonight.....in the morning should be moving bomb like
 

Sumela » 10 Jan 2024, 3:49 pm » wrote: ↑

10 Jan 2024, 3:49 pm

As long as China is the world's industrial powerhouse they will be fine.

"Skanny Tranny" as you like to say doesn't seem to understand that just because a stock's price isn't doing well doesn't mean the company itself is bad. It just means investors haven't piled on like a bunch of vultures in order to make "easy bux" and exit once the house of paper cards begins to collapse.

As individuals we ALL want "easy money," but it is NOT the government's job to facilitate that. ANY functional government needs to have higher priorities. Skanny Tranny is just upset that "dictators" like Xi and Putin DGAF about "oh-woe-is-me" quick money chasers. 

​​​​​​
 

Skans » 10 Jan 2024, 4:21 pm » wrote: ↑

10 Jan 2024, 4:21 pm

Your analysis completely ignores what happened in 1999, 2006-7 and 2020.  Probably some big corrections even before then as well. 

• Irrational exuberance, the "New Economy" and the dot-com crash brought on by Y2K; and shortly thereafter 9-11.
• Housing Market crash brought on by fraud and silly "investors" running up to the 2006 housing crash.
• Covid Epidemic - national and global shutdown of "non-essential" businesses.

Those are 3 huge things you completely glaze over. At the time, all of these events seemed like market-changing doom and gloom machines. Plus, you offer no logical reason for any impending, systemic, long-term crash/bear.

I posted my thesis later (after you replied) based on EWT and technical analysis, of which Avi Gilburt is my preferred resource. That is my reasoning.

I do not deny there were events that correlated with downturns like 2000 and 2009. What would perhaps surprise you since this is a subject you know little (or nothing) about is the fact that price declines came first.

Yes, that's right...stock prices were already dropping before there was any discernible signs of the system coming apart in all 3 of those examples you mentioned 
 

LowIQTrash » 10 Jan 2024, 11:14 pm » wrote: ↑

10 Jan 2024, 11:14 pm

"Skanny Tranny" as you like to say doesn't seem to understand that just because a stock's price isn't doing well doesn't mean the company itself is bad. It just means investors haven't piled on like a bunch of vultures in order to make "easy bux" and exit once the house of paper cards begins to collapse.

As individuals we ALL want "easy money," but it is NOT the government's job to facilitate that. ANY functional government needs to have higher priorities. Skanny Tranny is just upset that "dictators" like Xi and Putin DGAF about "oh-woe-is-me" quick money chasers. 

​​​​​​

     
bootstraps neolibism is a lie. 
It cucks fake cons into this fake feeling of freedom
 

LowIQTrash » 10 Jan 2024, 11:14 pm » wrote: ↑

10 Jan 2024, 11:14 pm

"Skanny Tranny" as you like to say doesn't seem to understand that just because a stock's price isn't doing well doesn't mean the company itself is bad. It just means investors haven't piled on like a bunch of vultures in order to make "easy bux" and exit once the house of paper cards begins to collapse.

As individuals we ALL want "easy money," but it is NOT the government's job to facilitate that. ANY functional government needs to have higher priorities. Skanny Tranny is just upset that "dictators" like Xi and Putin DGAF about "oh-woe-is-me" quick money chasers. 

​​​​​​

^^^^^^
Perfect
 

DeezerShoove » 10 Jan 2024, 7:44 pm » wrote: ↑

10 Jan 2024, 7:44 pm

People come and go, returning with new handles for some reason.
It gets hard to put specific posts onto people.
I suppose some are right but a lot are wrong in the fortune telling biz.  

I guess I better sell my place in 2028 or so.

You can read Avi Gilburt’s articles for free on Seeking Alpha.

Here’s a good example…and note the date:

https://seekingalpha.com/article/430881 ... arket-move

And just for the record, no, I am not subscribed to his service since I don’t do day trading, only medium term (6 month - 3 yr) investments. I just want to know the overall direction and where things are headed…

Sumela » 10 Jan 2024, 11:42 pm » wrote: ↑

10 Jan 2024, 11:42 pm

^^^^^^
Perfect

And if you want an even greater beatdown of “Skanny Tranny” (I have to admit you have a way with words    )…I say look at what happened in Japan

Japan’s housing bubble burst and resulted in 20 years of economic stagnation and an 80%+ fall in stock prices in the next 2 decades. And for what?…just so some foreign investors got rich? 

Neoliberal ideology = parasites’ wet dream

It IS possible Xi saw this and decided to crater their housing market now instead of dealing with even greater pain later. But people like Skanny Tranny and the propaganda artists will say how Xi’s economic decisions resulted in failure, China economy bad, etc. 

Skans » 10 Jan 2024, 5:16 pm » wrote: ↑

10 Jan 2024, 5:16 pm

I would never invest in Russian Stocks.  Russia gets F-ed with by Europe, America and Putin himself.  I don't like when governments have the power, ability and inclination to monkey around with businesses, so Russia is "out" for me.  Same thing goes for China.  I acknowledge that I am neither smart enough nor powerful enough to take on corrupt Russia or corrupt China. 

As for American companies, I can always find a team of Legal Whores who will sue the **** out of companies that engage in creative accounting.  Not looking to out-play the (((Globalists))).  I will stay within my comfort zone.  It has worked well for me so far.

One more thing.  I'm just one in a few million that know the risks associated with Russian and Chinese companies.  One of a few million who steer clear from mafia-run rigged games.

And yet you always talk about value investing. Where is the “value” today?

Where is the “value” in the US stock market when almost everything carries an inflated price tag…like Nvidia?

The reality is that deep down, you know that technical price movements and charts are a legitimate way to determine where a stock (or even an index) is headed. It is the only explanation as to why companies that haven’t earned a dime in profit have somehow managed to become “valued” at something like 25 P/S. The only reason you refuse to admit it is that you aren’t even intellectually honest with yourself. 

You want to believe that, through your ingenuity and hard work, you somehow ended up picking the right stocks…when in fact you are just a beneficiary of this bull market “rising tide.” (Oh right, you’re a “boOtsTrapZ” conservative…explains everything)   

I am the only one warning you this little party will come to an end very soon - you’ll probably be close to retirement when the bear finally hibernates.

Thank me in 2030.
 

LowIQTrash » 10 Jan 2024, 11:50 pm » wrote: ↑

10 Jan 2024, 11:50 pm

You can read Avi Gilburt’s articles for free on Seeking Alpha.

Here’s a good example…and note the date:

https://seekingalpha.com/article/430881 ... arket-move

And just for the record, no, I am not subscribed to his service since I don’t do day trading, only medium term (6 month - 3 yr) investments. I just want to know the overall direction and where things are headed…

Thanks. I will look into it.

Side note: I'm trying to educate myself on cryptocurrencies a little.
Actually, it is daunting trying to sift through the **** and see the truth about imaginary money.
Another poster has made a profit he says, I'm interested, but still pretty dumb about it.
So far, it still seems like voodoo. It's real because people believe in it.   




...but then the stock market churns because of that very thing.  

LowIQTrash » 10 Jan 2024, 11:19 pm » wrote: ↑

10 Jan 2024, 11:19 pm

Yes, that's right...stock prices were already dropping before there was any discernible signs of the system coming apart in all 3 of those examples you mentioned

This is true, but its always that way.  However, the logical fallacy you make is that dropping stock prices always indicate an impending recession.  It could just be a short term "giggle" due to a number of things like: recent price run-up, inflation data, fed meeting, etc.

So, you seem to be predicting the beginning of a long bear market for US securities.  However,

• there has not been a prolonged period of stock prices falling
• there is a mood of some pessimism. This tends to occur when the economy is in a recession and
• unemployment is low, or when
• inflation was high, but is within a fairly normal range right now.  The impending recession due to high inflation didn't happen, despite all of the predictions
• The All Ordinaries Index has been basically flat since prior to 2022, and certainly is not dropping drastically.  In fact, its been flat for a month or so after a slight run-up prior to that.
• We are in a presidential election year.

So, I don't see any signs of any impending "great depression" this year.  Maybe next year, who knows.  Its too soon to predict what the heck is going to take place one year out during an election year.
 

LowIQTrash » 11 Jan 2024, 12:07 am » wrote: ↑

11 Jan 2024, 12:07 am

And yet you always talk about value investing. Where is the “value” today?

That's fair, I do tend to favor value investing over momentum investing.  Any given Russian company may be priced cheaply for what it produces.  The problem with Russian stocks (when you could actually invest in them) and Chinese stocks is that I have no check or balance in being able to trust their financial statements.  Also, time and time again, Putin and Xi personally F- with company CEO's and can take whatever they want out of the company any time they want to. 

Hey, some people will play black jack in casinos that use automatic card shufflers.  The game is always stacked in favor of the House.  That's a LOSER'S game.  And, that's exactly what investing in Russian and Chinese stocks is all about.  Sure, some people will make money, but the game is rigged, and in every hand, there is a potential of the dealer holding a Joker.  But, in this game, the Joker doesn't just get the pot.  The joker gets all of your money, but promises you a "reach-around".  As the joker is sliding his dick up your *** and one hand on your cock, as he promised, he uses the other hand to pull the trigger on his Makarav launching a bullet point-blank to the back of your head.    
 
 

LowIQTrash » 11 Jan 2024, 12:07 am » wrote: ↑

11 Jan 2024, 12:07 am

The reality is that deep down, you know that technical price movements and charts are a legitimate way to determine where a stock (or even an index) is headed. It is the only explanation as to why companies that haven’t earned a dime in profit have somehow managed to become “valued” at something like 25 P/S. The only reason you refuse to admit it is that you aren’t even intellectually honest with yourself. 

You want to believe that, through your ingenuity and hard work, you somehow ended up picking the right stocks…when in fact you are just a beneficiary of this bull market “rising tide.” (Oh right, you’re a “boOtsTrapZ” conservative…explains everything)   

I am the only one warning you this little party will come to an end very soon - you’ll probably be close to retirement when the bear finally hibernates.

Thank me in 2030.
 

Yes, technical price movements and charts are a legitimate way to predict stock price movements - but only when the accounting is verifiable and there are checks and balances in place pertaining to financial reporting! Also, there is far less chance in the US of a powerful political figure re-educating CEO's or manipulating the stock price.

As for companies that have little to no earnings but major price momentum, like Amazon or Tesla, there are a couple of explanations.  With Amazon, theoretically, they if/when they decide to stop or slow expansion, all that "grow-money" will turn into income for investors.

With Tesla, its all about their products and an apparent "lock" they seem to have on the market and on budding infrastructure. Banking on speculative huge future profits.  Its a company-by-company thing.

Will there be another bear market in my lifetime - sure, probably several.  Good reason to take some money off the table in good times to buy good companies when they go on sale.