Nate Silver's First Presidential Election Forecast Is Out, and Democrats Are Losing Their Minds

Oh how it must SUCK being a LWNJ now!!!

Seems you LOSERS are going to LOSE YOUR MINDS after every *** KICKING Trump administers until he wins in November!!

Silver is now out with his first 2024 presidential election forecast, and it gives Trump a shockingly high 66 percent chance to win the election as things stand.

https://twitter.com/jessesingal/status/ ... n-n2176004

When faced with such a dip, the right response is to be concerned and look for areas to change the dynamic. How did Democrats respond? By lashing out and personally attacking Silver.

https://twitter.com/KitSwink/status/180 ... n-n2176004

The idea that Silver has been "wrong" and has, therefore, been discredited has been a common refrain. Is it true, though? The simple answer is that it's not. His final forecast of the 2020 election gave Joe Biden an 89 percent chance of winning. I understand skepticism of any forecasting as it's not an exact science and will inevitably be inaccurate to some degree, but it's hard to make the case that Silver has been off the deep end the last eight years. He seems to let his model do the talking, and that's happening once again.

Silver was prepared for the criticism. In fact, he pre-emptively addressed it in his write-up about the latest forecast.

Wouldn’t it be suspicious if, in the first presidential cycle where the Democrat has consistently trailed in polls since 2004, I suddenly started telling you that you should trust vibes rather than polls?

Or if I chucked out my heretofore well-performing model for a new one that had Biden favored — or at least had the election as a toss-up?

Yes, of course. It would be a sign that I’d become a hack. I’ve spent years telling people that, although polls are often wrong — indeed, inevitably wrong to some degree — it’s hard to predict the direction of polling error.

Biden could easily overachieve his current polls — but it’s roughly as likely that he’ll underachieve them instead. It’s sort of a myth that Democrats outperformed their polls in 2022, but they certainly performed better than the conventional wisdom held.

But Trump substantially outperformed his polls in 2016 and 2020. Going by the polls, perhaps along with some reasonable priors about things like the economy, is a lot better than going by the number of yard signs in your neighborhood or by what your friends think — or especially by what you hope will happen.

Liberals are spoiled children, miserable, unsatisfied, demanding, ill-disciplined, despotic & useless. Liberalism is a philosophy of sniveling brats ~O'Rourke

The Democratic Party seems intransigent on their position of keeping the party ‘woke,’ detached, exclusionary, and totally insane.

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Nate Silver's First Presidential Election Forecast Is Out, and Democrats Are Losing Their Minds

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