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Fuelman, here’s more confirmation of the “melt-up” that’s coming!
Fuelman, here’s more confirmation of the “melt-up” that’s coming!
By LowIQTrash
3 Aug 2024 1:10 pm in No Holds Barred Political Forum
11 Sep 2024 2:48 pm
If 50/50 is what you know you should be doing, why not follow that parameter? Could you explain why you should be doing 50/50? You have absorbed plenty of information and advice over the last year or so, some good, some bad.LowIQTrash » 11 Sep 2024, 12:01 pm » wrote: ↑ I play OTM but I should be doing at least 50/50.
Yes, I imagine I am no longer a beginner…I would never do one of those WallStBet type plays where they gamble everything on earnings and then either brag about +300% in one day or post losses of 90%
I would say the biggest lesson I’ve learned is to wait for the price to drop to an area I predict and then wait for confirmation for a reversal before entering. If I hastily rush into something out of frustration it almost always ends badly
For example, right now crude oil is taking a beating, but I do not think this will continue for much longer (Price of oil almost always drops before an election, go figure).
Crude will make new highs in 2025 (my prediction), lifting all oil sector stocks.
So I have a price target around $42 for OXY, an excellent entry point.
Just wondering what makes a trader not follow what he knows is a reasonable guideline.
I like the OXY play. These guys agree from an investment position.
https://www.fool.com/investing/2024/09/ ... eum-stock/
11 Sep 2024 6:18 pm
When money is involved there is always going to be a deluge of emotion. Disentangling emotion is difficult.Fuelman » 11 Sep 2024, 2:48 pm » wrote: ↑ If 50/50 is what you know you should be doing, why not follow that parameter? Could you explain why you should be doing 50/50? You have absorbed plenty of information and advice over the last year or so, some good, some bad.
Just wondering what makes a trader not follow what he knows is a reasonable guideline.
I like the OXY play. These guys agree from an investment position.
https://www.fool.com/investing/2024/09/ ... eum-stock/
Nobody wants to spend hours or days doing research, only to enter at a slight imperfection in time and see their options lose 20% despite the stock only going down 3.5%, and then have to constantly second guess if their hypothesis was wrong all along.
For example, I already have an idea of how September will play out but I will only size a small % of options in. This is because the reward is moderate and I don’t want to miss the forest (the “melt up” coming in).
There is also the issue of timing an exit. If your calls are up 45%, do you just sell or hope for 200%?
As for OTM / ITM, I always have the optimistic view it will hit my target. Whether I end up holding -30% swings to +150% is another matter…
I like the litmus test: If you can sleep at night and not think about the options you bought, it’s likely a good buy.
(Selling options on the other hand is far safer and is designed to generate passive income, but works better with portfolios > $700K)
12 Sep 2024 9:29 am
It's one of the hardest things for beginners to overcome, the emotional attachment to that money. It's not easy to come up with that initial deposit into a trading account. It would be nice to get the mind to just write that money off in the beginning, easier said than done!LowIQTrash » 11 Sep 2024, 6:18 pm » wrote: ↑ When money is involved there is always going to be a deluge of emotion. Disentangling emotion is difficult.
Nobody wants to spend hours or days doing research, only to enter at a slight imperfection in time and see their options lose 20% despite the stock only going down 3.5%, and then have to constantly second guess if their hypothesis was wrong all along.
For example, I already have an idea of how September will play out but I will only size a small % of options in. This is because the reward is moderate and I don’t want to miss the forest (the “melt up” coming in).
There is also the issue of timing an exit. If your calls are up 45%, do you just sell or hope for 200%?
As for OTM / ITM, I always have the optimistic view it will hit my target. Whether I end up holding -30% swings to +150% is another matter…
I like the litmus test: If you can sleep at night and not think about the options you bought, it’s likely a good buy.
(Selling options on the other hand is far safer and is designed to generate passive income, but works better with portfolios > $700K)
I have no idea how many calls you are buying at any given time but if they are up 45%, I would exit a portion of them and let the rest ride if you still believe in the position. Capital preservation means you live to trade another day.
Hope you kill it going into the end of the year, I would be happy with another 10% boost for this year.
Impressive comeback on the Dow yesterday.
12 Sep 2024 10:17 pm
There are too many little details for me to explicate. It's really mind boggling.Fuelman » 12 Sep 2024, 9:29 am » wrote: ↑ It's one of the hardest things for beginners to overcome, the emotional attachment to that money. It's not easy to come up with that initial deposit into a trading account. It would be nice to get the mind to just write that money off in the beginning, easier said than done!
I have no idea how many calls you are buying at any given time but if they are up 45%, I would exit a portion of them and let the rest ride if you still believe in the position. Capital preservation means you live to trade another day.
Hope you kill it going into the end of the year, I would be happy with another 10% boost for this year.
Impressive comeback on the Dow yesterday.
I encountered this very useful post by someone on Twitter:
=============================================
- bitcoin miners only shares, never options
- for put selling semiconductors/FAANG names only
- software buy 20/30% dips, and sell after similar size rips
- fintech will always be trash, but excellent for scalps
- best market beta risk evaluation name watch is $AMD
- 90% of biotech, and individual small cap names are garbage, direct indices play better for most
- you're too stupid for metals and industrials, skip these sectors
- healthcare way too boring, don't touch
- regardless of what I wrote and what you do, in the end you will always come back to semiconductors and software, no matter how much you don't want to
=============================================
And indeed, he is correct. Playing indices or software/tech/semiconductors is the best option for most people, esp. beginners. Much more predictable.
Turns out metals is one of the worst sectors for people without an insane amount of experience. I had extraordinary luck with Silver, the good luck ran out...
Good luck is actually a curse - once it runs out then you're in deep doodoo.
A life lesson you probably already knew!
18 Sep 2024 3:38 am
Hmm…Fuelman » 12 Sep 2024, 9:29 am » wrote: ↑ It's one of the hardest things for beginners to overcome, the emotional attachment to that money. It's not easy to come up with that initial deposit into a trading account. It would be nice to get the mind to just write that money off in the beginning, easier said than done!
I have no idea how many calls you are buying at any given time but if they are up 45%, I would exit a portion of them and let the rest ride if you still believe in the position. Capital preservation means you live to trade another day.
Hope you kill it going into the end of the year, I would be happy with another 10% boost for this year.
Impressive comeback on the Dow yesterday.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=IhcTyVOEm-0&pp=ygULQ3VkZGx5IGJlYXI%3D
18 Sep 2024 8:03 am
Awe, cute little bears just waiting to rip your throat out and take some of your monopoly money 
!
19 Sep 2024 9:11 am
19 Sep 2024 10:37 pm
I was. Never size big when the market’s at an inflection point…Fuelman » 19 Sep 2024, 9:11 am » wrote: ↑ Impressive open in the markets this morning!
I hope you were ready for this, cha-ching!
6 Nov 2024 11:58 pm
Here's another curious instanceFuelman » 18 Sep 2024, 8:03 am » wrote: ↑!
https://www.reddit.com/r/jobs/comments/ ... yer_fired/
At this point, these companies shouldn't even bother "cutting costs." They should just wind up their operations and go "all in" on the market melt up before it all comes crashing down.Our new COO has finally left his office and made his move.
Up until recently, he was a mystery man who spent all his time in his private office, refusing to meet with anyone.
Last week he called about ten long-term managers and supervisors to his office for a large meeting.
At the end of the meeting, he said each and every one of the managers were incompetent and had failed the company. He fired each of them. These now-fired managers were the backbone of the company, Long termers with advanced technical skills, a track record of success, and institutional knowledge of how things worked.
To everyone's shock, they were given no notice, warning, or severance pay. The COO told everyone who was terminated they were fired and, as a result, as per company policy, they would not receive any severance pay or unused vacation pay. At the end of the meeting security guards arrived and escorted everyone out of the meeting.
The talk around the office is who would do the work of the departed managers?
They were all in the middle of major projects, had meetings planned with staff and customers, and had unique institutional and technical knowledge that their staff did not have. Their staff does not know how to do their ex-manager jobs. Think of the emails that were sent to the now-fired managers from customers, clients, consultants, and staff waiting for a reply!
Have you ever seen anything like this before? It is outrageous!
* I only have to survive two more weeks and I can retire with a full pension. So no, I am not looking for a new job
7 Nov 2024 12:41 am
it is not about reducing cost. middle management reduces sales. the old chain of command system is dead!!!! computers, harmony between department employees, just in time delivery, transfer of surpluses, and more advancements that get rid of middle management. yes. old chain of command.;you told a low level manager about anything. he barked back. or sent it up the chain. weeks later a reply. as time and money fly out the window. you reply. more defects shipped. more surpluses. more middle managers to find out the problems. bottom of the chain gets blamed and fired. computer harmony is replacing the chain of command where labor dragged the ball of responsibility.LowIQTrash » 07 Nov 2024, 12:58 am » wrote: ↑ Here's another curious instance
https://www.reddit.com/r/jobs/comments/ ... yer_fired/
At this point, these companies shouldn't even bother "cutting costs." They should just wind up their operations and go "all in" on the market melt up before it all comes crashing down.
7 Nov 2024 12:48 am
That's true, there is a lot of fat that can be cut.walkingstick » 07 Nov 2024, 1:41 am » wrote: ↑ it is not about reducing cost. middle management reduces sales. the old chain of command system is dead!!!! computers, harmony between department employees, just in time delivery, transfer of surpluses, and more advancements that get rid of middle management. yes. old chain of command.;you told a low level manager about anything. he barked back. or sent it up the chain. weeks later a reply. as time and money fly out the window. you reply. more defects shipped. more surpluses. more middle managers to find out the problems. bottom of the chain gets blamed and fired. computer harmony is replacing the chain of command where labor dragged the ball of responsibility.
Expect unemployment #s to go up exponentially if manual labor and top brass are the only people remaining.
7 Nov 2024 12:52 am
taking responsibility is freedom for all. politicians want responsibility over your every move. you give. you obey. you are usa today. confused. what to do. lazy you do not want to take back responsibility. so you elect someone who will do a better job of managing your responsibility. as you get fatter and depressed. solution. you got addicted to street drugs. hello usa.................walkingstick » 07 Nov 2024, 1:41 am » wrote: ↑ it is not about reducing cost. middle management reduces sales. the old chain of command system is dead!!!! computers, harmony between department employees, just in time delivery, transfer of surpluses, and more advancements that get rid of middle management. yes. old chain of command.;you told a low level manager about anything. he barked back. or sent it up the chain. weeks later a reply. as time and money fly out the window. you reply. more defects shipped. more surpluses. more middle managers to find out the problems. bottom of the chain gets blamed and fired. computer harmony is replacing the chain of command where labor dragged the ball of responsibility.
7 Nov 2024 7:44 am
I've heard those stories all my life, bunch of office workers loading up the little brown box and sent packing. Blessed I guess for not ever living that experience.LowIQTrash » 07 Nov 2024, 12:58 am » wrote: ↑ Here's another curious instance
https://www.reddit.com/r/jobs/comments/ ... yer_fired/
At this point, these companies shouldn't even bother "cutting costs." They should just wind up their operations and go "all in" on the market melt up before it all comes crashing down.
As for the melt up, yesterday was a milestone, best one day advance dollar wise ever in the retirement accounts.
Hanging on to it, that's another story.
7 Nov 2024 10:48 am
I’m hearing these stories every day now. It is not an isolated case.Fuelman » 07 Nov 2024, 8:44 am » wrote: ↑ I've heard those stories all my life, bunch of office workers loading up the little brown box and sent packing. Blessed I guess for not ever living that experience.
As for the melt up, yesterday was a milestone, best one day advance dollar wise ever in the retirement accounts.
Hanging on to it, that's another story.
Wait till the stats agencies stop issuing fake numbers and reveal what’s going on in the “real” economy.
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