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What One Stock Are You Going To Wish You Bought....
What One Stock Are You Going To Wish You Bought....
By Skans
7 Jan 2025 8:09 am in No Holds Barred Political Forum
7 Jan 2025 8:07 pm
Skans » 07 Jan 2025, 4:02 pm » wrote: ↑ I wouldn't consider them even if I had the option. I have had plenty of opportunities to invest in private companies run by others. I just don't. Or, I don't any longer. I was a part of a group of investors in a company that I didn't run. Let me just say this - the exit strategy was f-ing grueling. I ended up doing 2.8x my investment over 5 years. Ok, but not worth the headache.
Not all investments need to be dividend driven. Companies pay dividends for many reasons. It is untrue that dividends are simply concessions because the company cannot generate better returns. While this can be true, its just not necessarily the case. However, companies should be profitable within a specified time period. Paying dividends does not equate to profitability.
Pick your poison. If you think you can capture bigger returns with less risk doing private equity investing, great! It's just not my thing. I feel that they tend to be too easily manipulated to evaluate whether they are good investments or not.
From my experience, the creator of private investments is the majority stock holder. He also controls if and when the company will ever be sold, and all investors get are tag-along and drag-along rights. Often, these CEO's are drawing such a large salary from operating the company that they are reluctant to ever sell. So, investors sit around perhaps forever waiting to get their money + profits back out (assuming it is even profitable). In the mean time, it is there is no market to buy/sell your stock. So, explain to me how the moon and the stars and ants in the sand all line up to get a knowledgeable investor to say YES, I WANT IN!!!
Anduril's last round was at a 17 billion dollar valuation.. I have had plenty of opportunities to invest in private companies run by others.
And it is still private.
If you want multiples, you buy in well before an IPO.
Again, in the abstract you would retain earnings if you can generate a return greater than the market.
I'm not talking about private equity...I'm talking about "secondary issues", generally shares held by insides that are restricted.
Ever hear the expression "He/she was employee #x at swizzlestick.com." frequently used to describe a philanthropist in their late 40's, living on an island in the Puget Sound?So, explain to me how the moon and the stars and ants in the sand all line up to get a knowledgeable investor to say YES, I WANT IN!!!
You're buying a piece of that.
7 Jan 2025 8:47 pm
AI is a return to slave labor. The consequences will be with society for millennia. But, IMHO, there is no avoiding it. Not until the Human race learns the pitfalls of AI will it be prepared to rein it in, if it can be reined in. This is who we are. We are little children playing with real machine guns; idiots who will push the limits of the impossible until it becomes possible, even at our own peril. There was no avoiding nuclear weapons. There was no avoiding Meth and Fentanyl. And there will be no avoiding AI. Our descendants will either learn to live with it, or be extinguished by it.impartialobserver » 07 Jan 2025, 8:38 pm » wrote: ↑ If we were to stop using it then folks would stop purchasing the more expensive American digital products and get them from Japan/Korea/UK/Canada/or China. I do not think it will end well. One of the things that keeps the masses pacified is labor and the ability to translate one's time/effort into a decent standard of living. If the transactional labor (where you follow repetitive steps making something from raw to finished) are automated away, there will be no jobs in other sectors to absorb them into. The purpose of AI is not to transform labor from one form/shape into another.. its to decrease the amount of labor.
7 Jan 2025 9:09 pm
“Show me the man and I’ll find you the crime”
LAVRENTIY BERIA
"Try to get past your passionate ignorance and learn to accept what actually happened."
brown's unheeded words of wisdom 
7 Jan 2025 9:22 pm
“Show me the man and I’ll find you the crime”
LAVRENTIY BERIA
"Try to get past your passionate ignorance and learn to accept what actually happened."
brown's unheeded words of wisdom 
8 Jan 2025 12:21 am
I love how you begin this post with the implicit assumption we aren't going to have a protracted, tortuous bear market.Skans » 07 Jan 2025, 9:09 am » wrote: ↑ Ten years from now, what one stock are you going to wish you bought (assuming you're not dead)?
Or, are you one of those who says "F- THE STOCK MARKET", and prefers to buy gold, real estate or brothels.
Communists can respond too. Just note that you are a communist so I know to short your pick.
PS: I was doing a deep dive this morning on the biggest stock winners of the 1980's and 1990's - therefore, I figured I'd just ask.
I would be thoroughly amused to see anyone, perhaps yourself included, hold any set of stocks in their portfolio through the next 70% drawdown. (Individual stocks will decline by 80-90% because the Nvidias/Teslas are always more volatile and nobody buys boring **** like Campbell's Soup)
And show me the yearly P/Ls + % gains (losses) if you decide to accept this challenge without panic selling. Hold long positions all the way to the bottom - do not go cash, do not go into inverse ETFs, do not go into puts or covered calls, etc.
Be a good 'ol boy and buy the dips like Suze Orman says
-----------------------------------------------
Cue "But if you held Amazon through a 91% crash from 2000-2003 you'd be up 30,000% today" NPC script
(Right...coz everyone knows to pick the Amazons and not the Lucents or Nortels or Enrons)
---------------------------------------------
Comparing today's market to 1980s and 1990s = clown thinking
8 Jan 2025 6:04 am
Sure there will be a bear market, or several. But, a 10-year bear market? Doubtful. I have been through downturns and I don't sell-off.LowIQTrash » 08 Jan 2025, 1:21 am » wrote: ↑ I love how you begin this post with the implicit assumption we aren't going to have a protracted, tortuous bear market.
I would be thoroughly amused to see anyone, perhaps yourself included, hold any set of stocks in their portfolio through the next 70% drawdown. (Individual stocks will decline by 80-90% because the Nvidias/Teslas are always more volatile and nobody buys boring **** like Campbell's Soup)
And show me the yearly P/Ls + % gains (losses) if you decide to accept this challenge without panic selling. Hold long positions all the way to the bottom - do not go cash, do not go into inverse ETFs, do not go into puts or covered calls, etc.
Be a good 'ol boy and buy the dips like Suze Orman says
-----------------------------------------------
Cue "But if you held Amazon through a 91% crash from 2000-2003 you'd be up 30,000% today" NPC script
(Right...coz everyone knows to pick the Amazons and not the Lucents or Nortels or Enrons)
---------------------------------------------
Comparing today's market to 1980s and 1990s = clown thinking
Nvidia and Tesla re very different stocks. One has a relatively high P/E but justified by its earnings growth rate, and the other has a ridiculous P/E. One thing I know for sure is that "cash" will lose value tremendously over the next 10 years - that's a given.
So, your choices are: 1) stocks in companies; 2) bonds; 3) cash; 4) real estate; 5) Metals/Bitcoin, 6) own debt and 7) owe debt. Pick your poison!
8 Jan 2025 8:48 am
While I am not familiar with Anduril, I am familiar with Palantir. I wouldn't invest in Palantir either. They may be developing amazing technology, but their PE is 344 which puts it way into the speculative region of investing. I never could figure out who, other than corporate insiders, would buy a stock that essentially doesn't make money. Especially when compared to companies that have been around for decades, have growing earnings, consistently are profitable, and have amazing new products/services in their pipeline.Blackvegetable » 07 Jan 2025, 9:07 pm » wrote: ↑ Anduril's last round was at a 17 billion dollar valuation.
And it is still private.
If you want multiples, you buy in well before an IPO.
Again, in the abstract you would retain earnings if you can generate a return greater than the market.
I'm not talking about private equity...I'm talking about "secondary issues", generally shares held by insides that are restricted.
Ever hear the expression "He/she was employee #x at swizzlestick.com." frequently used to describe a philanthropist in their late 40's, living on an island in the Puget Sound?
You're buying a piece of that.
I may never get rich overnight on any one particular investment, like some have done with Palantir, but I won't lose my *** either. As for Anduril, I get it, huge venture capitalists have money to bet to win big or lose big. I don't. So, a company like that would be way outside my investment parameters.
Curious though, where do you see the "pay day" with a company like Anduril?
8 Jan 2025 9:21 am
Anduril is the Raytheon of tomorrow. Think about what happens when your weapon no longer needs a jockey. If your $600 drone crashes after takeoff, you vacuum up the bits. When your 300 million dollar f-35 goes down, with its multi million dollar pilot - you've got "issues".Skans » 08 Jan 2025, 9:48 am » wrote: ↑ While I am not familiar with Anduril, I am familiar with Palantir. I wouldn't invest in Palantir either. They may be developing amazing technology, but their PE is 344 which puts it way into the speculative region of investing. I never could figure out who, other than corporate insiders, would buy a stock that essentially doesn't make money. Especially when compared to companies that have been around for decades, have growing earnings, consistently are profitable, and have amazing new products/services in their pipeline.
I may never get rich overnight on any one particular investment, like some have done with Palantir, but I won't lose my *** either. As for Anduril, I get it, huge venture capitalists have money to bet to win big or lose big. I don't. So, a company like that would be way outside my investment parameters.
Curious though, where do you see the "pay day" with a company like Anduril?
You couldn't buy Palantir when it was worth buying.
8 Jan 2025 9:32 am
Yes, I would not likely have access to purchasing Palantir when it was private.Blackvegetable » 08 Jan 2025, 10:21 am » wrote: ↑ Anduril is the Raytheon of tomorrow. Think about what happens when your weapon no longer needs a jockey. If your $600 drone crashes after takeoff, you vacuum up the bits. When your 300 million dollar f-35 goes down, with its multi million dollar pilot - you've got "issues".
You couldn't buy Palantir when it was worth buying.
8 Jan 2025 10:03 am
You can buy funds and etfs that access secondariesSkans » 08 Jan 2025, 10:32 am » wrote: ↑ Yes, I would not likely have access to purchasing Palantir when it was private.
8 Jan 2025 10:10 am
Realities are made real because ancestors give up living their genetic time alive to stay in character defined by rule of law cradle to grave regardless what generation gaps they reach after birth.Skans » 07 Jan 2025, 9:09 am » wrote: ↑ Ten years from now, what one stock are you going to wish you bought (assuming you're not dead)?
Or, are you one of those who says "F- THE STOCK MARKET", and prefers to buy gold, real estate or brothels.
Communists can respond too. Just note that you are a communist so I know to short your pick.
PS: I was doing a deep dive this morning on the biggest stock winners of the 1980's and 1990's - therefore, I figured I'd just ask.
Evolving never duplicates total sum evolving forward beyond the moment here. So in intellectual time 10 years from now, won't exist until 10 years from now and with current events doing what has been accomplished last 7,000 years, there won't be anymore great great grandchild generation gaps added after this decade ends.
Image the random chance my screen name 31st Arrival became the 31st post in this thread. What timing.
Oh, something I learned in 1982 is never regret using my brain rather than obeying my nurtured mind formulated after birth to ignore all I was since conceived just to participate in a socially manifested mob mentality cradle to grave.
I get to witness eternity evolving as naturally timed apart daily. I don't like my body getting old, but what I learned in the last 43 years really debunks human history previous 7,000 years.
8 Jan 2025 11:43 am
Yes, I could. The question though is "why"? I mean, I suppose I can assume that those fund managers have some degree of expertise picking private companies.Blackvegetable » 08 Jan 2025, 11:03 am » wrote: ↑ You can buy funds and etfs that access secondaries
I like the advice Warren Buffett gives investors, particularly at his annual meetings. Buy good companies, and hold. This means companies that have a history of strong fundamentals, good accounting and reporting practices, are accountable to shareholders and make (or do) stuff that people really need. In fact, what I might do is wait until the old man croaks and then see if Berekshire's A-shares go on sale.
I'll leave the day-trading to you.
8 Jan 2025 12:09 pm
He buys the entire thing.Skans » 08 Jan 2025, 12:43 pm » wrote: ↑ Yes, I could. The question though is "why"? I mean, I suppose I can assume that those fund managers have some degree of expertise picking private companies.
I like the advice Warren Buffett gives investors, particularly at his annual meetings. Buy good companies, and hold. This means companies that have a history of strong fundamentals, good accounting and reporting practices, are accountable to shareholders and make (or do) stuff that people really need. In fact, what I might do is wait until the old man croaks and then see if Berekshire's A-shares go on sale.
I'll leave the day-trading to you.
That's a major difference.
8 Jan 2025 12:40 pm
Skans » 07 Jan 2025, 9:47 pm » wrote: ↑ AI is a return to slave labor. The consequences will be with society for millennia. But, IMHO, there is no avoiding it. Not until the Human race learns the pitfalls of AI will it be prepared to rein it in, if it can be reined in. This is who we are. We are little children playing with real machine guns; idiots who will push the limits of the impossible until it becomes possible, even at our own peril. There was no avoiding nuclear weapons. There was no avoiding Meth and Fentanyl. And there will be no avoiding AI. Our descendants will either learn to live with it, or be extinguished by it.
I have too much pride for a universal basic income. Only so much time can be spent hiking in the hills, listening to music, and so on
8 Jan 2025 12:53 pm
Not a stock, but in crypto I am stocking up on Shib. People laugh. However, it gradually increases. About a year ago, I bought close to 100M coins that I bought on an average of $1,000 total. Those 0s will drop as time goes on. In ten years, I predict that it will be 0.01. That gives me 1 million. If I wait for two more 0s to drop, then it's $1.00 coin.Skans » 07 Jan 2025, 9:09 am » wrote: ↑ Ten years from now, what one stock are you going to wish you bought (assuming you're not dead)?
Or, are you one of those who says "F- THE STOCK MARKET", and prefers to buy gold, real estate or brothels.
Communists can respond too. Just note that you are a communist so I know to short your pick.
PS: I was doing a deep dive this morning on the biggest stock winners of the 1980's and 1990's - therefore, I figured I'd just ask.
Retarded Horse's view on women.
JohnEdgarSlowHorses » Today, 7:28 pm » wrote: ↑Today, 7:28 pm
JohnEdgarSlowHorses » Today, 7:28 pm » wrote: ↑Today, 7:28 pm
- I LOVE IT WHEN A CRACK WHORE GETS BEAT UP Image
- I WANT TO WATCH YOU BEAT YOUR CRACK WHORE WIFE Image Image Image
- PUT THAT WIFE BEATER ON AND GET BUSY
8 Jan 2025 1:32 pm
Who, Buffett? Yes, he sometimes does, but he buys publicly traded companies too. He who has the money has the means to make a crap-ton more money.Blackvegetable » 08 Jan 2025, 1:09 pm » wrote: ↑ He buys the entire thing.
That's a major difference.
8 Jan 2025 1:36 pm
You can always make hand crafted furniture. The Amish make some top-quality furniture. They will survive AI.impartialobserver » 08 Jan 2025, 1:40 pm » wrote: ↑ I have too much pride for a universal basic income. Only so much time can be spent hiking in the hills, listening to music, and so on
8 Jan 2025 1:38 pm
I'm not laughing. People have made huge money in Crypto. My problem with Crypto is that I do not know how to quantify its value. I mean, I don't just "not know", I have no freaking clue how to quantify or project values for any crypto-currency.Vegas » 08 Jan 2025, 1:53 pm » wrote: ↑ Not a stock, but in crypto I am stocking up on Shib. People laugh. However, it gradually increases. About a year ago, I bought close to 100M coins that I bought on an average of $1,000 total. Those 0s will drop as time goes on. In ten years, I predict that it will be 0.01. That gives me 1 million. If I wait for two more 0s to drop, then it's $1.00 coin.
8 Jan 2025 1:38 pm
true. Recently tried to replace kitchen cabinets and build them myself. Probably best that I do not go any further with that tale.Skans » 08 Jan 2025, 2:36 pm » wrote: ↑ You can always make hand crafted furniture. The Amish make some top-quality furniture. They will survive AI.
8 Jan 2025 1:44 pm
Dude, that's not easy! Walls aren't plumb, or square and I'm not an expert on using shims. I did build a shooting bench from a set of plans - turned out pretty good!impartialobserver » 08 Jan 2025, 2:38 pm » wrote: ↑ true. Recently tried to replace kitchen cabinets and build them myself. Probably best that I do not go any further with that tale.
I give the Amish credit for their lifestyle and their choice of expertise. They make exceptional quality furniture, but don't expect to pay Vietnamese prices.
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