Liberal Forum

Skans » 08 Jan 2025, 2:44 pm » wrote: ↑

08 Jan 2025, 2:44 pm

Dude, that's not easy!  Walls aren't plumb, or square and I'm not an expert on using shims. I did build a shooting bench from a set of plans - turned out pretty good!

I give the Amish credit for their lifestyle and their choice of expertise.  They make exceptional quality furniture, but don't expect to pay Vietnamese prices.

Yeah, I figured that out. What a hot mess it was. Great fodder for a sitcom. 

impartialobserver » 08 Jan 2025, 2:49 pm » wrote: ↑

08 Jan 2025, 2:49 pm

Yeah, I figured that out. What a hot mess it was. Great fodder for a sitcom.

My wife likes to remind me of the time I had to replace 3 toilets in our previous house. ("had to" meaning my wife made me)  Normally, this would be easy, but no, these toilets were all wall-mounted.  I got so frustrated trying to mount one of these heavy-*** toilets, that I almost threw it through a mirrored wall. I had no idea just how hard it was to get 4 bolts clamped and mounted to the studs behind the drywall such that the toilet holes all lined up, and the toilet ended up level, and not canted forward or backward. 

Lesson learned: NEVER BUY A HOUSE BUILT IN THE EARLY 1970S!!!
 

Skans » 08 Jan 2025, 2:38 pm » wrote: ↑

08 Jan 2025, 2:38 pm

I'm not laughing.  People have made huge money in Crypto. My problem with Crypto is that I do not know how to quantify its value.  I mean, I don't just "not know", I have no freaking clue how to quantify or project values for any crypto-currency.

Not many people do. But who cares? The money is real. I have cashed in on it many times. It is definitely an abstract concept. However, if you think about it, the US dollar isn't backed by anything of value since we left the gold standard. Yet, here we are. 

For the lazy people, these two ETF's did alright for 2024.

IVV
VYM

Skans » 08 Jan 2025, 7:04 am » wrote: ↑

08 Jan 2025, 7:04 am

Sure there will be a bear market, or several.  But, a 10-year bear market?  Doubtful.  I have been through downturns and I don't sell-off. 

Nvidia and Tesla re very different stocks.  One has a relatively high P/E but justified by its earnings growth rate, and the other has a ridiculous P/E. One thing I know for sure is that "cash" will lose value tremendously over the next 10 years - that's a given. 

So, your choices are: 1) stocks in companies; 2) bonds; 3) cash; 4) real estate; 5) Metals/Bitcoin, 6) own debt and 7) owe debt. Pick your poison!

You cannot, by default, assume a long (10-18 yr) bear market won’t take place.

A long bear market doesn’t necessarily mean you won’t have upturns or rallies, it just means the structure of the chart remains in a downward formation.

For example, the SP can hit 7200 in a year and an half, crash below 2500, then hit 6800 in another 4 yrs, then slowly bleed its way below 2007 highs (1500) again. That would be a “structural bear” (long term bear) due to the failure to secure higher highs. 

You will be sitting on dead capital for years without active management.

This period of prosperity (1945-present) is an anomaly. So much so that we are in an “everything bubble.” Bonds have already deflated (doesn’t mean they won’t continue to do so in the next decade) and stocks will not be for long, so I am not necessarily advocating bonds (although there is a case the R/R is looking favorable right now).

You don’t have to go cash, but the idea of buying and holding something for 10 yrs in hopes of 200x gains is so unlikely / unrealistic there is little point, unless you diversify across like 35 names (and even then you’re facing bearish headwinds in the whole market that will neutralize higher valuations).

 
 

Skans » 08 Jan 2025, 2:56 pm » wrote: ↑

08 Jan 2025, 2:56 pm

My wife likes to remind me of the time I had to replace 3 toilets in our previous house. ("had to" meaning my wife made me)  Normally, this would be easy, but no, these toilets were all wall-mounted.  I got so frustrated trying to mount one of these heavy-*** toilets, that I almost threw it through a mirrored wall. I had no idea just how hard it was to get 4 bolts clamped and mounted to the studs behind the drywall such that the toilet holes all lined up, and the toilet ended up level, and not canted forward or backward. 

Lesson learned: NEVER BUY A HOUSE BUILT IN THE EARLY 1970S!!!
 

Sounds like you didn't figure out to use a rolling floor jack for cars to hold the toilet up and roll it into position.

BIG TIT STOCK!

Skans » 08 Jan 2025, 2:38 pm » wrote: ↑

08 Jan 2025, 2:38 pm

I'm not laughing.  People have made huge money in Crypto. My problem with Crypto is that I do not know how to quantify its value.  I mean, I don't just "not know", I have no freaking clue how to quantify or project values for any crypto-currency.

People who trade crypto rely on technical indicators. 

In fact, the existence of **** that provide no tangible value whatsoever (unlike company stock, which - at least in theory - are tethered to the "fundamental value" of the company itself) disproves the idea you need to read balance sheets to assess which way the stock price is going.


Right now I am seeing a major top in Bitcoin around $130K, although it will drop below $90K in the following weeks as we are in a corrective cycle right now in just about everything. 

LowIQTrash » 08 Jan 2025, 6:41 pm » wrote: ↑

08 Jan 2025, 6:41 pm

You cannot, by default, assume a long (10-18 yr) bear market won’t take place.

A long bear market doesn’t necessarily mean you won’t have upturns or rallies, it just means the structure of the chart remains in a downward formation.

For example, the SP can hit 7200 in a year and an half, crash below 2500, then hit 6800 in another 4 yrs, then slowly bleed its way below 2007 highs (1500) again. That would be a “structural bear” (long term bear) due to the failure to secure higher highs. 

You will be sitting on dead capital for years without active management.

This period of prosperity (1945-present) is an anomaly. So much so that we are in an “everything bubble.” Bonds have already deflated (doesn’t mean they won’t continue to do so in the next decade) and stocks will not be for long, so I am not necessarily advocating bonds (although there is a case the R/R is looking favorable right now).

You don’t have to go cash, but the idea of buying and holding something for 10 yrs in hopes of 200x gains is so unlikely / unrealistic there is little point, unless you diversify across like 35 names (and even then you’re facing bearish headwinds in the whole market that will neutralize higher valuations).

So, I am not familiar with the term "Structural Bear".  I suppose if we look at the NASDQ composite right before the dot-com crash of '99, you would say that we have been in a structural bear market until about 2017. That's how long it took the NASDQ composite to reach the highs that it was at in '99.  I mean, ok, if you purchased all of your stocks in Dec 1999 then for that person, they would have experienced a bear market for almost 17 years. But, only idiots were buying sky-high p/e dot-com stocks. I sure as **** wasn't.  "New Economy" - I remember scoffing at that term in the late '90's. 

I've always been more of a value investor.  And, yes, I use dollar cost averaging and diversify among stocks and mutual funds.  I do not, at this time, invest in bonds or bond funds. In fact, I haven't for many years.  Interest rates just don't justify it

Anyway, I've compared the equity markets to real estate investments that I've made.  While I THOUGHT I did really well with real estate, had I been actively invested in equities, overall, I would have done better.

I can't think of a time in the last 100 years where the US has been in a 18 year long bear market. Even after 1929, unless you bought at the peak of 29, you would have recovered in 5-7 years after the crash,
 

Sumela » 08 Jan 2025, 9:33 pm » wrote: ↑

08 Jan 2025, 9:33 pm

BIG TIT STOCK!

Do you own her, or just lease her out?

Skans » 08 Jan 2025, 10:23 pm » wrote: ↑

08 Jan 2025, 10:23 pm

Do you own her, or just lease her out?

She is not HB-1.

That is Trumpy and Musk.

America First!  
 

31stArrival » 08 Jan 2025, 6:46 pm » wrote: ↑

08 Jan 2025, 6:46 pm

Sounds like you didn't figure out to use a rolling floor jack for cars to hold the toilet up and roll it into position.

LOL! I bought a rolling motorcycle floor jack from Harbor Freight AFTER I did this toilet replacement project. It likely would have worked perfectly too.  

Skans » 08 Jan 2025, 10:21 pm » wrote: ↑

08 Jan 2025, 10:21 pm

So, I am not familiar with the term "Structural Bear".  I suppose if we look at the NASDQ composite right before the dot-com crash of '99, you would say that we have been in a structural bear market until about 2017. That's how long it took the NASDQ composite to reach the highs that it was at in '99.  I mean, ok, if you purchased all of your stocks in Dec 1999 then for that person, they would have experienced a bear market for almost 17 years. But, only idiots were buying sky-high p/e dot-com stocks. I sure as **** wasn't.  "New Economy" - I remember scoffing at that term in the late '90's. 

I've always been more of a value investor.  And, yes, I use dollar cost averaging and diversify among stocks and mutual funds.  I do not, at this time, invest in bonds or bond funds. In fact, I haven't for many years.  Interest rates just don't justify it

Anyway, I've compared the equity markets to real estate investments that I've made.  While I THOUGHT I did really well with real estate, had I been actively invested in equities, overall, I would have done better.

I can't think of a time in the last 100 years where the US has been in a 18 year long bear market. Even after 1929, unless you bought at the peak of 29, you would have recovered in 5-7 years after the crash,

The Nasdaq was in a structural bear for only a few years. (The crash of 2007-2009 did not erase all the gains made from 2003-2007)

I'm thinking of the Nikkei and how it continued to crash / sell off all rallies from 1989 to 2007.

"Structural bear" (or "secular bear" market) describes any ticker or index that trades below its ATH, with rallies that are clearly corrective in nature (designed to retrace moves lower).instead of moving to higher highs.

The rallies get sold off and then the index or ticker makes newer lows over a longer period of time (3, 5, 7+ years)

The US stock market has some of the best returns in the world (in recent history), hence why we naturally assume (all rallies) will eventually take us to newer ATHs. Going forward, this is a dangerous assumption.

Examples:

General Electric topped in 2000 and made several corrective rallies, with each crash (in 2000-2003, then 2007-2010, and finally the death knell in 2013-2016 before its new renaissance) taking it to newer lows. It was in a "secular bear" market for well over a decade.

United Healthcare, a stock that has accumulated great returns over the last 30+ years, crashed by almost 15% in the last several weeks. I suspect it has already reached a very "long term top" that will not be surpassed for over 10+ years.

A structural bear market for UNH means that, in the foreseeable future (we are assuming reasonable time frames like 5, 10, and 15 yrs, as nobody wants to wait 20+ years for a ticker to break even), it will not break new ATH and will continue to sink lower (all selloffs > all rallies in strength / points gained or lost).

-------------------------------------------------------

You're right, the US has not had such a bear market in the last 100 years, which is why such an event would be extraordinarily dangerous for any investor who is complacent, thinking this type of outcome is improbable.

 
 

LowIQTrash » 08 Jan 2025, 10:34 pm » wrote: ↑

08 Jan 2025, 10:34 pm

The Nasdaq was in a structural bear for only a few years. (The crash of 2007-2009 did not erase all the gains made from 2003-2007)

I'm thinking of the Nikkei and how it continued to crash / sell off all rallies from 1989 to 2007.

"Structural bear" (or "secular bear" market) describes any ticker or index that trades below its ATH, with rallies that are clearly corrective in nature (designed to retrace moves lower).instead of moving to higher highs.

The rallies get sold off and then the index or ticker makes newer lows over a longer period of time (3, 5, 7+ years)

The US stock market has some of the best returns in the world (in recent history), hence why we naturally assume (all rallies) will eventually take us to newer ATHs. Going forward, this is a dangerous assumption.

Examples:

General Electric topped in 2000 and made several corrective rallies, with each crash (in 2000-2003, then 2007-2010, and finally the death knell in 2013-2016 before its new renaissance) taking it to newer lows. It was in a "secular bear" market for well over a decade.

United Healthcare, a stock that has accumulated great returns over the last 30+ years, crashed by almost 15% in the last several weeks. I suspect it has already reached a very "long term top" that will not be surpassed for over 10+ years.

A structural bear market for UNH means that, in the foreseeable future (we are assuming reasonable time frames like 5, 10, and 15 yrs, as nobody wants to wait 20+ years for a ticker to break even), it will not break new ATH and will continue to sink lower (all selloffs > all rallies in strength / points gained or lost).

-------------------------------------------------------

You're right, the US has not had such a bear market in the last 100 years, which is why such an event would be extraordinarily dangerous for any investor who is complacent, thinking this type of outcome is improbable.

I can definitely see how this pertains to individual stocks, even sectors. I followed GE thinking it had better days, but ultimately concluded "not for me".  Another stock I've followed for a long time is Prospect Capital PSEC thinking that with a dividend of 12% its gotta be a great deal.  But, its just continued to go down and its debt assets have been downgraded to "junk". 

I'm just skeptical about a looming bear market across dow, s&p 500 and nasdq markets in the near future. The reason is 2-foldIn: at the very least inflation will keep pushing reasonably valued stock prices higher and Trump.  Once the markets realize that Trump's tariffs won't impact domestic businesses, once that "fear" is absorbed, I see US markets pressured to the upside. If you were really convicted on your looming bear theory, I would think you would be employing short strategies.  I might short a stock like AMD or Tesla, or even alternative energy stocks (likely too late for that), but not the likes of Chase, Nvidia, Alphabet, or Amazon.
 
 

Skans » 08 Jan 2025, 10:26 pm » wrote: ↑

08 Jan 2025, 10:26 pm

LOL! I bought a rolling motorcycle floor jack from Harbor Freight AFTER I did this toilet replacement project. It likely would have worked perfectly too. :rofl:  

hindsight being 20/20 is history building better tomorrows repeating same mistakes every generation gap forward doing the same beliefs as established every generation gap so far.

Always trust social consensus to be inaccurate about time left being alive forward today. Relative time facts have had 3 minutes and 56 seconds extra time added to evolving daily here.

It is why the Gregorian calendar added February 29, every 4th year in the 16th century AD. My point here is humanity is designed to corrupt every great great grandchild evolving into 1 of 16 great great grandparents in 4 more generations doing the same traditional values last 7,000 years.

Every instinctive brain is aware of their time proportionately here, just social consensus prohibits anyone discussing it in any arena of ideas life exceeds the moment here.

Common since conceived each generation gap lived since dawn of civilization, so far.

I think beyond boxed in social opinions about life being more than it ever was what evolves in plain sight, now. it is the best truth detector never invented to coverup actual time adapting forward today be it midnight to noon tomorrow or yesterday noon to midnight same rotation Greenwich to Greenwich longitude.

Need I describe what latitudes describe horizontal space rotating between equator and each polar cap space in this atmosphere divided by 23 longitudes sustaining the illusion of 24/7 as life is positions of series parallel results inhabiting the moment here so far 8 seasonal shifts 4 times a year.

Get trump watches

BuckNaked » 09 Jan 2025, 6:58 am » wrote: ↑

09 Jan 2025, 6:58 am

Get trump watches

I checked them out.  Some of them aren't half bad - the ones that are swiss made.   Some probably use Japanese movements.  But, still, at least many of them are mechanical and not cheap quartz watches.
 

Blackvegetable » 07 Jan 2025, 9:07 pm » wrote: ↑

07 Jan 2025, 9:07 pm

Anduril's last round was at a 17 billion dollar valuation.

And it is still private.

If you want multiples, you buy in well before an IPO.

Again, in the abstract you would retain earnings if you can generate a return greater than the market. 

I'm not talking about private equity...I'm talking about "secondary issues", generally shares held by insides that are restricted.

Ever hear the expression "He/she was employee #x at swizzlestick.com." frequently used to describe a philanthropist in their late 40's, living on an island in the Puget Sound?

You're buying a piece of that.

14B not 17B. 

Skans » 07 Jan 2025, 9:09 am » wrote: ↑

07 Jan 2025, 9:09 am

Ten years from now, what one stock are you going to wish you bought (assuming you're not dead)? 

Or, are you one of those who says "F- THE STOCK MARKET", and prefers to buy gold, real estate or brothels.

Communists can respond too.  Just note that you are a communist so I know to short your pick.

PS: I was doing a deep dive this morning on the biggest stock winners of the 1980's and 1990's - therefore, I figured I'd just ask.

If I had anything Musk related I would flip that bytch like a pancake at IHOP right now.

I helped someone sell some Sherwin Williams at the recent peak..  My jitters it would drop after the election appear to be founded.  It dropped from 390 to 320  share since the election.  Possibly a good time to buy it. It has amazing historical growth.  If Interest rates drops folks are going to be using a lot of construction materials. CA, NC, and FL all need to be rebuilt.

I am curious about quantum computing..   It seems it could be very revolutionary for humanity.   I have no clue where to invest.  

A professor told us before google existed that internet browsers were coming and would be a lucrative investment. I was just to hung over in college to realize the opportunity he was discussing. That and I was on top of Mt Stupid on my Dunning Kruger Trajectory.