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What One Stock Are You Going To Wish You Bought....
What One Stock Are You Going To Wish You Bought....
By Skans
7 Jan 2025 8:09 am in No Holds Barred Political Forum
Yesterday 1:49 pm
Skans » 5 minutes ago » wrote: ↑ Dude, that's not easy! Walls aren't plumb, or square and I'm not an expert on using shims. I did build a shooting bench from a set of plans - turned out pretty good!
I give the Amish credit for their lifestyle and their choice of expertise. They make exceptional quality furniture, but don't expect to pay Vietnamese prices.
Yeah, I figured that out. What a hot mess it was. Great fodder for a sitcom.
Yesterday 1:56 pm
My wife likes to remind me of the time I had to replace 3 toilets in our previous house. ("had to" meaning my wife made me) Normally, this would be easy, but no, these toilets were all wall-mounted. I got so frustrated trying to mount one of these heavy-*** toilets, that I almost threw it through a mirrored wall. I had no idea just how hard it was to get 4 bolts clamped and mounted to the studs behind the drywall such that the toilet holes all lined up, and the toilet ended up level, and not canted forward or backward.impartialobserver » 10 minutes ago » wrote: ↑ Yeah, I figured that out. What a hot mess it was. Great fodder for a sitcom.
Lesson learned: NEVER BUY A HOUSE BUILT IN THE EARLY 1970S!!!
Yesterday 1:59 pm
Skans » 21 minutes ago » wrote: ↑ I'm not laughing. People have made huge money in Crypto. My problem with Crypto is that I do not know how to quantify its value. I mean, I don't just "not know", I have no freaking clue how to quantify or project values for any crypto-currency.
Not many people do. But who cares? The money is real. I have cashed in on it many times. It is definitely an abstract concept. However, if you think about it, the US dollar isn't backed by anything of value since we left the gold standard. Yet, here we are.
Retarded Horse's view on women.
JohnEdgarSlowHorses » Today, 7:28 pm » wrote: ↑Today, 7:28 pm
JohnEdgarSlowHorses » Today, 7:28 pm » wrote: ↑Today, 7:28 pm
- I LOVE IT WHEN A CRACK WHORE GETS BEAT UP Image
- I WANT TO WATCH YOU BEAT YOUR CRACK WHORE WIFE Image Image Image
- PUT THAT WIFE BEATER ON AND GET BUSY
Yesterday 2:24 pm
Yesterday 5:41 pm
You cannot, by default, assume a long (10-18 yr) bear market won’t take place.Skans » Today, 7:04 am » wrote: ↑ Sure there will be a bear market, or several. But, a 10-year bear market? Doubtful. I have been through downturns and I don't sell-off.
Nvidia and Tesla re very different stocks. One has a relatively high P/E but justified by its earnings growth rate, and the other has a ridiculous P/E. One thing I know for sure is that "cash" will lose value tremendously over the next 10 years - that's a given.
So, your choices are: 1) stocks in companies; 2) bonds; 3) cash; 4) real estate; 5) Metals/Bitcoin, 6) own debt and 7) owe debt. Pick your poison!
A long bear market doesn’t necessarily mean you won’t have upturns or rallies, it just means the structure of the chart remains in a downward formation.
For example, the SP can hit 7200 in a year and an half, crash below 2500, then hit 6800 in another 4 yrs, then slowly bleed its way below 2007 highs (1500) again. That would be a “structural bear” (long term bear) due to the failure to secure higher highs.
You will be sitting on dead capital for years without active management.
This period of prosperity (1945-present) is an anomaly. So much so that we are in an “everything bubble.” Bonds have already deflated (doesn’t mean they won’t continue to do so in the next decade) and stocks will not be for long, so I am not necessarily advocating bonds (although there is a case the R/R is looking favorable right now).
You don’t have to go cash, but the idea of buying and holding something for 10 yrs in hopes of 200x gains is so unlikely / unrealistic there is little point, unless you diversify across like 35 names (and even then you’re facing bearish headwinds in the whole market that will neutralize higher valuations).
Yesterday 5:46 pm
Sounds like you didn't figure out to use a rolling floor jack for cars to hold the toilet up and roll it into position.Skans » Today, 2:56 pm » wrote: ↑ My wife likes to remind me of the time I had to replace 3 toilets in our previous house. ("had to" meaning my wife made me) Normally, this would be easy, but no, these toilets were all wall-mounted. I got so frustrated trying to mount one of these heavy-*** toilets, that I almost threw it through a mirrored wall. I had no idea just how hard it was to get 4 bolts clamped and mounted to the studs behind the drywall such that the toilet holes all lined up, and the toilet ended up level, and not canted forward or backward.
Lesson learned: NEVER BUY A HOUSE BUILT IN THE EARLY 1970S!!!
Yesterday 8:33 pm
Yesterday 9:19 pm
People who trade crypto rely on technical indicators.Skans » Today, 2:38 pm » wrote: ↑ I'm not laughing. People have made huge money in Crypto. My problem with Crypto is that I do not know how to quantify its value. I mean, I don't just "not know", I have no freaking clue how to quantify or project values for any crypto-currency.
In fact, the existence of **** that provide no tangible value whatsoever (unlike company stock, which - at least in theory - are tethered to the "fundamental value" of the company itself) disproves the idea you need to read balance sheets to assess which way the stock price is going.
Yesterday 9:21 pm
So, I am not familiar with the term "Structural Bear". I suppose if we look at the NASDQ composite right before the dot-com crash of '99, you would say that we have been in a structural bear market until about 2017. That's how long it took the NASDQ composite to reach the highs that it was at in '99. I mean, ok, if you purchased all of your stocks in Dec 1999 then for that person, they would have experienced a bear market for almost 17 years. But, only idiots were buying sky-high p/e dot-com stocks. I sure as **** wasn't. "New Economy" - I remember scoffing at that term in the late '90's.LowIQTrash » Today, 6:41 pm » wrote: ↑ You cannot, by default, assume a long (10-18 yr) bear market won’t take place.
A long bear market doesn’t necessarily mean you won’t have upturns or rallies, it just means the structure of the chart remains in a downward formation.
For example, the SP can hit 7200 in a year and an half, crash below 2500, then hit 6800 in another 4 yrs, then slowly bleed its way below 2007 highs (1500) again. That would be a “structural bear” (long term bear) due to the failure to secure higher highs.
You will be sitting on dead capital for years without active management.
This period of prosperity (1945-present) is an anomaly. So much so that we are in an “everything bubble.” Bonds have already deflated (doesn’t mean they won’t continue to do so in the next decade) and stocks will not be for long, so I am not necessarily advocating bonds (although there is a case the R/R is looking favorable right now).
You don’t have to go cash, but the idea of buying and holding something for 10 yrs in hopes of 200x gains is so unlikely / unrealistic there is little point, unless you diversify across like 35 names (and even then you’re facing bearish headwinds in the whole market that will neutralize higher valuations).
I've always been more of a value investor. And, yes, I use dollar cost averaging and diversify among stocks and mutual funds. I do not, at this time, invest in bonds or bond funds. In fact, I haven't for many years. Interest rates just don't justify it
Anyway, I've compared the equity markets to real estate investments that I've made. While I THOUGHT I did really well with real estate, had I been actively invested in equities, overall, I would have done better.
I can't think of a time in the last 100 years where the US has been in a 18 year long bear market. Even after 1929, unless you bought at the peak of 29, you would have recovered in 5-7 years after the crash,
Yesterday 9:23 pm
Do you own her, or just lease her out?
Yesterday 9:26 pm
She is not HB-1.
That is Trumpy and Musk.
America First!
Yesterday 9:26 pm
LOL! I bought a rolling motorcycle floor jack from Harbor Freight AFTER I did this toilet replacement project. It likely would have worked perfectly too.31stArrival » Today, 6:46 pm » wrote: ↑ Sounds like you didn't figure out to use a rolling floor jack for cars to hold the toilet up and roll it into position.
Yesterday 9:34 pm
The Nasdaq was in a structural bear for only a few years. (The crash of 2007-2009 did not erase all the gains made from 2003-2007)Skans » 13 minutes ago » wrote: ↑ So, I am not familiar with the term "Structural Bear". I suppose if we look at the NASDQ composite right before the dot-com crash of '99, you would say that we have been in a structural bear market until about 2017. That's how long it took the NASDQ composite to reach the highs that it was at in '99. I mean, ok, if you purchased all of your stocks in Dec 1999 then for that person, they would have experienced a bear market for almost 17 years. But, only idiots were buying sky-high p/e dot-com stocks. I sure as **** wasn't. "New Economy" - I remember scoffing at that term in the late '90's.
I've always been more of a value investor. And, yes, I use dollar cost averaging and diversify among stocks and mutual funds. I do not, at this time, invest in bonds or bond funds. In fact, I haven't for many years. Interest rates just don't justify it
Anyway, I've compared the equity markets to real estate investments that I've made. While I THOUGHT I did really well with real estate, had I been actively invested in equities, overall, I would have done better.
I can't think of a time in the last 100 years where the US has been in a 18 year long bear market. Even after 1929, unless you bought at the peak of 29, you would have recovered in 5-7 years after the crash,
I'm thinking of the Nikkei and how it continued to crash / sell off all rallies from 1989 to 2007.
"Structural bear" (or "secular bear" market) describes any ticker or index that trades below its ATH, with rallies that are clearly corrective in nature (designed to retrace moves lower).instead of moving to higher highs. It's difficult to tell until you have 20/20 hindsight.
The US stock market has some of the best returns in the world, hence why we naturally assume (all rallies) will take us to newer ATHs. Going forward this is a dangerous assumption.
Examples:
General Electric topped in 2000 and made several corrective rallies, with each crash (in 2000-2003, then 2007-2010, and finally the death knell in 2013-2016 before its new renaissance) taking it to newer lows. It was in a "secular bear" market for well over a decade.
United Healthcare, a stock that has accumulated great returns over the last 30+ years, crashed by almost 15% in the last several weeks. I suspect it has already reached a very "long term top."
A structural bear market for UNH means that, in the foreseeable future (we are assuming reasonable time frames like 5, 10, and 15 yrs, as nobody wants to wait 20+ years for a ticker to break even), it will not break new ATH and will continue to sink lower (all selloffs > all rallies in strength / points gained or lost).
-------------------------------------------------------
You're right, the US has not had such a bear market in the last 100 years, which is why such an event would be extraordinarily dangerous for any investor who is complacent, thinking this type of outcome is improbable.
I can definitely see how this pertains to individual stocks, even sectors. I followed GE thinking it had better days, but ultimately concluded "not for me". Another stock I've followed for a long time is Prospect Capital PSEC thinking that with a dividend of 12% its gotta be a great deal. But, its just continued to go down and its debt assets have been downgraded to "junk".LowIQTrash » Yesterday, 10:34 pm » wrote: ↑ The Nasdaq was in a structural bear for only a few years. (The crash of 2007-2009 did not erase all the gains made from 2003-2007)
I'm thinking of the Nikkei and how it continued to crash / sell off all rallies from 1989 to 2007.
"Structural bear" (or "secular bear" market) describes any ticker or index that trades below its ATH, with rallies that are clearly corrective in nature (designed to retrace moves lower).instead of moving to higher highs.
The rallies get sold off and then the index or ticker makes newer lows over a longer period of time (3, 5, 7+ years)
The US stock market has some of the best returns in the world (in recent history), hence why we naturally assume (all rallies) will eventually take us to newer ATHs. Going forward, this is a dangerous assumption.
Examples:
General Electric topped in 2000 and made several corrective rallies, with each crash (in 2000-2003, then 2007-2010, and finally the death knell in 2013-2016 before its new renaissance) taking it to newer lows. It was in a "secular bear" market for well over a decade.
United Healthcare, a stock that has accumulated great returns over the last 30+ years, crashed by almost 15% in the last several weeks. I suspect it has already reached a very "long term top" that will not be surpassed for over 10+ years.
A structural bear market for UNH means that, in the foreseeable future (we are assuming reasonable time frames like 5, 10, and 15 yrs, as nobody wants to wait 20+ years for a ticker to break even), it will not break new ATH and will continue to sink lower (all selloffs > all rallies in strength / points gained or lost).
-------------------------------------------------------
You're right, the US has not had such a bear market in the last 100 years, which is why such an event would be extraordinarily dangerous for any investor who is complacent, thinking this type of outcome is improbable.
I'm just skeptical about a looming bear market across dow, s&p 500 and nasdq markets in the near future. The reason is 2-foldIn: at the very least inflation will keep pushing reasonably valued stock prices higher and Trump. Once the markets realize that Trump's tariffs won't impact domestic businesses, once that "fear" is absorbed, I see US markets pressured to the upside.
32 minutes ago
hindsight being 20/20 is history building better tomorrows repeating same mistakes every generation gap forward doing the same beliefs as established every generation gap so far.Skans » Yesterday, 10:26 pm » wrote: ↑ LOL! I bought a rolling motorcycle floor jack from Harbor Freight AFTER I did this toilet replacement project. It likely would have worked perfectly too. :rofl:
Always trust social consensus to be inaccurate about time left being alive forward today. Relative time facts have had 3 minutes and 56 seconds extra time added to evolving daily here.
It is why the Gregorian calendar added February 29, every 4th year in the 16th century AD.
18 minutes ago
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