Liberal Forum

Losing power is such a violent thing...progressives don't care...should you?


They labeled it "voluntary"...an opportunity to get rid of you guns

Canadians answer with a big "**** YOU!"

nefarious101 » 30 Sep 2025, 5:28 am » wrote: ↑

30 Sep 2025, 5:28 am

Losing power is such a violent thing...progressives don't care...should you?

They labeled it "voluntary"...an opportunity to get rid of you guns

Canadians answer with a big "**** YOU!"

Australia's 1996 National Firearms Agreement (NFA) was followed by significant decreases in firearm-related deaths, including homicides and suicides. There is strong evidence that mass shootings ended for over two decades after the reforms. However, the impact on general homicide rates is debated, partly because crime statistics were already on a downward trend before the new laws were passed. 
Impact on gun crime and suicides

• Mass shootings effectively stopped. Following the Port Arthur massacre in 1996, the government banned semi-automatic and pump-action rifles and shotguns. In the 18 years before the reforms, there had been 13 fatal mass shootings, but for 23 years afterward, there were none.
• Firearm deaths declined significantly. Rates of firearm suicides, which make up the majority of gun deaths in Australia, saw an accelerated decline after the reforms. Studies also documented a significant decline in firearm homicides.
• No "substitution effect" for overall deaths. Some researchers questioned if a drop in gun deaths would be offset by an increase in non-firearm deaths. However, studies found that overall homicide and suicide rates also declined, indicating no significant substitution occurred. 

Debate on overall crime rates
Whether the NFA caused an overall decline in homicides is a subject of debate among researchers. 
Arguments attributing the decline to gun control

• Accelerated decline: Some analyses, like a 2006 study in the Journal of Injury Prevention, found that although firearm deaths were already decreasing, the rate of decline accelerated significantly after the new laws.
• Evidence from buybacks: Researchers at Harvard found that the drop in firearm deaths was most pronounced in states with higher per-capita gun buyback rates.
• Counterfactual analysis: A 2020 synthetic control study found that the reduction in total homicides experienced by Australia was about 50% larger than what would have been expected without the NFA. 

Arguments questioning the link

• Pre-existing trend: Firearm homicides were already decreasing before 1996. Critics note that the overall effect of the NFA on homicide was less dramatic than its effect on firearm-related deaths.
• Controlling for variables: A  no spam  review of the evidence pointed out the difficulty in estimating the causal effect of the laws because Australia lacks a good control group for comparison. Some studies also found similar changes in non-firearm suicides, suggesting other social factors may have been at play.
• Conflicting findings: Some studies have found little to no significant impact of the legislative changes on the pre-existing downward trend in firearm homicides. 

Conclusion
Australia's gun control laws, enacted after the 1996 Port Arthur massacre, were followed by a substantial and sustained drop in firearm suicides and homicides, including the virtual elimination of mass shootings for over two decades. However, the specific contribution of the NFA to the overall reduction in total homicide and crime rates is debated, with some pointing to pre-existing downward trends and other societal factors. 

I sure wish we could get a downward trend in our society.

JohnnyYou » 30 Sep 2025, 5:35 am » wrote: ↑

30 Sep 2025, 5:35 am

Australia's 1996 National Firearms Agreement (NFA) was followed by significant decreases in firearm-related deaths, including homicides and suicides. There is strong evidence that mass shootings ended for over two decades after the reforms. However, the impact on general homicide rates is debated, partly because crime statistics were already on a downward trend before the new laws were passed. 
Impact on gun crime and suicides

• Mass shootings effectively stopped. Following the Port Arthur massacre in 1996, the government banned semi-automatic and pump-action rifles and shotguns. In the 18 years before the reforms, there had been 13 fatal mass shootings, but for 23 years afterward, there were none.
• Firearm deaths declined significantly. Rates of firearm suicides, which make up the majority of gun deaths in Australia, saw an accelerated decline after the reforms. Studies also documented a significant decline in firearm homicides.
• No "substitution effect" for overall deaths. Some researchers questioned if a drop in gun deaths would be offset by an increase in non-firearm deaths. However, studies found that overall homicide and suicide rates also declined, indicating no significant substitution occurred. 

Debate on overall crime rates
Whether the NFA caused an overall decline in homicides is a subject of debate among researchers. 
Arguments attributing the decline to gun control

• Accelerated decline: Some analyses, like a 2006 study in the Journal of Injury Prevention, found that although firearm deaths were already decreasing, the rate of decline accelerated significantly after the new laws.
• Evidence from buybacks: Researchers at Harvard found that the drop in firearm deaths was most pronounced in states with higher per-capita gun buyback rates.
• Counterfactual analysis: A 2020 synthetic control study found that the reduction in total homicides experienced by Australia was about 50% larger than what would have been expected without the NFA. 

Arguments questioning the link

• Pre-existing trend: Firearm homicides were already decreasing before 1996. Critics note that the overall effect of the NFA on homicide was less dramatic than its effect on firearm-related deaths.
• Controlling for variables: A  no spam  review of the evidence pointed out the difficulty in estimating the causal effect of the laws because Australia lacks a good control group for comparison. Some studies also found similar changes in non-firearm suicides, suggesting other social factors may have been at play.
• Conflicting findings: Some studies have found little to no significant impact of the legislative changes on the pre-existing downward trend in firearm homicides. 

Conclusion
Australia's gun control laws, enacted after the 1996 Port Arthur massacre, were followed by a substantial and sustained drop in firearm suicides and homicides, including the virtual elimination of mass shootings for over two decades. However, the specific contribution of the NFA to the overall reduction in total homicide and crime rates is debated, with some pointing to pre-existing downward trends and other societal factors.

The Pedo=Progressive LGBT Democrat party's presidential candidate "Kumalagobbler" ran on disarming Americans.

Gun grabbing schemes are part of the Pedo=Progressive LGBT democrat party's agenda for decades

They can't grab total power without first grabbing guns...it's obvious...the other Pedo=Progressive LGBT government's around the world have already done it.

The founders expected you people....the enemy within....armed citizens keep you at bay...

The American citizenry would have no problem with total Pedo=Progressive LGBT eradication to save their families and country

Don't fool yourselves

JohnnyYou » 30 Sep 2025, 5:35 am » wrote: ↑

30 Sep 2025, 5:35 am

Conclusion
Australia's gun control laws, enacted after the 1996 Port Arthur massacre, were followed by a substantial and sustained drop in firearm suicides and homicides, including the virtual elimination of mass shootings for over two decades. However, the specific contribution of the NFA to the overall reduction in total homicide and crime rates is debated, with some pointing to pre-existing downward trends and other societal factors.

Long-Term Downward Trends: Firearm suicides and homicides were already declining well before the NFA. From 1979 to 1996, firearm suicide rates dropped by 40%, and firearm homicide rates fell by 47%. This undermines claims that the NFA caused the decline.

Non-Firearm Deaths Didn’t Mirror the Trend: Non-firearm suicide rates actually increased from 1979 to 1996, suggesting that broader social or mental health factors—not gun laws—were influencing suicide trends.

No Control Group: Australia’s lack of a comparable control group makes it difficult to isolate the NFA’s effects. Without a counterfactual, attributing changes solely to the legislation is speculative.

Synthetic Control Studies Are Inconclusive: While some studies use synthetic controls to estimate impact, these models rely heavily on assumptions and cannot definitively prove causality. Confounding variables—like economic shifts, mental health initiatives, and policing changes—are hard to account for.

Rare Events, Not Predictable Trends: Mass shootings were already infrequent in Australia. Thirteen incidents over 18 years averages to fewer than one per year. The absence of mass shootings post-NFA may reflect statistical randomness rather than legislative success

Definition Drift: Some post-NFA mass killings (e.g., the 2014 Sydney siege) are excluded from analysis due to definitional changes. This skews the data and exaggerates the NFA’s impact.

Limited Scope: The buyback removed about 650,000 firearms, but millions remained in circulation. The program disproportionately affected law-abiding owners, while criminal access to firearms was largely unaffected

No Clear Link to Crime Reduction: States with higher buyback rates did not consistently show greater reductions in gun deaths, suggesting other factors were at play

More guns than before: Despite the 1996 National Firearms Agreement (NFA), Australia now has over 4 million registered civilian firearms—25% more than before the Port Arthur massacre

Urban concentration: One-third of New South Wales’ firearms are in major cities, contradicting the assumption that guns are mostly rural

Massive private arsenals: Some individuals legally own hundreds of firearms. In inner Sydney, two people each own over 300 guns
 

JohnnyYou » 30 Sep 2025, 5:37 am » wrote: ↑

30 Sep 2025, 5:37 am

I sure wish we could get a downward trend in our society.

You're certainly doing your best to achieve it......stay high and **** up, we're counting on you.

Only law abiding people will follow the gun grabbing laws

That's leave guns only in the hands of criminals and law enforcement

Pedo=Progressive LGBT directed law enforcement has shown little regard for the law abiding in favor of protecting the criminal elements

RebelGator » 30 Sep 2025, 6:04 am » wrote: ↑

30 Sep 2025, 6:04 am

You're certainly doing your best to achieve it......stay high and **** up, we're counting on you.

75% of all mass shootings are done christian right wing nut jobs.

100,000 federal workers to resign Tuesday

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/ne ... 205185.cms

ICE and law enforcement report guns and other weapons are being confiscated in detention center riots

arrest participants are told to say goodbye forever to their freedom

Soros and company appreciates the donation of your life and freedom to the profitability his hedge funds

JohnnyYou » 30 Sep 2025, 6:33 am » wrote: ↑

30 Sep 2025, 6:33 am

75% of all mass shootings are done christian right wing nut jobs.

False

nefarious101 » 30 Sep 2025, 6:53 am » wrote: ↑

30 Sep 2025, 6:53 am

100,000 federal workers to resign Tuesday

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/ne ... 205185.cms

Great news.

nefarious101 » 30 Sep 2025, 6:53 am » wrote: ↑

30 Sep 2025, 6:53 am

100,000 federal workers to resign Tuesday

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/ne ... 205185.cms

Excellent! Many will be DEI hires. Good riddance.
 

RebelGator » 30 Sep 2025, 7:17 am » wrote: ↑

30 Sep 2025, 7:17 am

Great news.

yep...things are going well

MR-7 » 30 Sep 2025, 7:27 am » wrote: ↑

30 Sep 2025, 7:27 am

Excellent! Many will be DEI hires. Good riddance.

AI would have eventually gotten to them anyway.....


problem is AI programming has been corrupted by who else but pedo=progressive LGBT Democrat infiltration

it's a proven fact....a bias has been built in

The first thing a Dictator does is disarm the citizens. You have zero leverage without guns.