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Some Good News? Q-4/2025
Some Good News? Q-4/2025
By Fuelman
8 Jan 2026 6:07 pm in No Holds Barred Political Forum
8 Jan 2026 6:07 pm
A little positive news when all the other news is ****!
Note: this is not official but a GDPNow model used by the Atlanta Fed.
GDPNow - Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta https://share.google/1yJXDhnbitmmR5qCb
The growth rate of real gross domestic product (GDP) is a key indicator of economic activity, but the official estimate is released with a delay. Our GDPNow forecasting model provides a "nowcast" of the official estimate prior to its release by estimating GDP growth using a methodology similar to the one used by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis. Latest estimate: 5.4 percent — January 08, 2026 The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2025 is 5.4 percent on January 8, up from 2.7 percent on January 5. After recent releases from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, the US Census Bureau, and the Institute for Supply Management, the nowcast of fourth-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth increased from 2.4 percent to 3.0 percent, while the nowcast of the contribution of net exports to fourth-quarter real GDP growth increased from -0.30 percentage points to 1.97 percentage points
Note: this is not official but a GDPNow model used by the Atlanta Fed.
GDPNow - Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta https://share.google/1yJXDhnbitmmR5qCb
The growth rate of real gross domestic product (GDP) is a key indicator of economic activity, but the official estimate is released with a delay. Our GDPNow forecasting model provides a "nowcast" of the official estimate prior to its release by estimating GDP growth using a methodology similar to the one used by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis. Latest estimate: 5.4 percent — January 08, 2026 The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2025 is 5.4 percent on January 8, up from 2.7 percent on January 5. After recent releases from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, the US Census Bureau, and the Institute for Supply Management, the nowcast of fourth-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth increased from 2.4 percent to 3.0 percent, while the nowcast of the contribution of net exports to fourth-quarter real GDP growth increased from -0.30 percentage points to 1.97 percentage points
9 Jan 2026 3:31 am
Generally Disruptive Propoganda
The equation is easily hacked.
Total payroll hours of manufacturing is 1/2 of what it was in 2022 recently.
This and other indicators have preceded every recession in history.
Fool Man.. Pick up some Styx..
The equation is easily hacked.
Total payroll hours of manufacturing is 1/2 of what it was in 2022 recently.
This and other indicators have preceded every recession in history.
Fool Man.. Pick up some Styx..
DUMP THE TRUMP SLUMP 2026!
Bump Caps Recommended..
Bump Caps Recommended..
9 Jan 2026 4:44 am
Trade deficit shrunk big time.JohnnyYou » 09 Jan 2026, 4:31 am » wrote: ↑ Generally Disruptive Propoganda
The equation is easily hacked.
Total payroll hours of manufacturing is 1/2 of what it was in 2022 recently.
This and other indicators have preceded every recession in history.
Fool Man.. Pick up some Styx..
https://youtu.be/CkkQPxoxJJY?si=v3shFsN-x5HAvRnL
9 Jan 2026 4:48 am
Tariffs I guess. Everyone bought what they needed before them. Can you concede there was reluctance to import?Fuelman » 09 Jan 2026, 5:44 am » wrote: ↑ Trade deficit shrunk big time.
youtu.be/CkkQPxoxJJY?si=v3shFsN-x5HAvRnL
Like I said, the GDP calc is Generally Disruptive Propoganda.
The largest increase in US History was a result of The Manhattan Project. That was a hell of a domestic product.
DUMP THE TRUMP SLUMP 2026!
Bump Caps Recommended..
Bump Caps Recommended..
9 Jan 2026 4:51 am
The only good news I saw was Jerome Powell sees some positive movement.
I can trust him. He actually has a degree in finance unlike our Secretary of Treasury..
I did see DJIA is on the way to busting 50K. The stalker market is happy..
cashing out the small 401K I accumulated at the job in the last 3 years is in the to do list. Maybe I can create my own enterprise with it.
I can trust him. He actually has a degree in finance unlike our Secretary of Treasury..
I did see DJIA is on the way to busting 50K. The stalker market is happy..
cashing out the small 401K I accumulated at the job in the last 3 years is in the to do list. Maybe I can create my own enterprise with it.
DUMP THE TRUMP SLUMP 2026!
Bump Caps Recommended..
Bump Caps Recommended..
9 Jan 2026 5:03 am
Exports is what drove the number higher which is a good thing. Fair trade produces more trade?JohnnyYou » 09 Jan 2026, 5:48 am » wrote: ↑ Tariffs I guess. Everyone bought what they needed before them. Can you concede there was reluctance to import?
Like I said, the GDP calc is Generally Disruptive Propoganda.
The largest increase in US History was a result of The Manhattan Project. That was a hell of a domestic product.
It will be quite amusing if that number holds even though the government was shut down.
9 Jan 2026 5:24 am
Do you have any numbers on increase in exports? Also price increases could drive that number up.Fuelman » 09 Jan 2026, 6:03 am » wrote: ↑ Exports is what drove the number higher which is a good thing. Fair trade produces more trade?
It will be quite amusing if that number holds even though the government was shut down.
I know the beef market is missing foreign customers. Canada is boycotting us..
DUMP THE TRUMP SLUMP 2026!
Bump Caps Recommended..
Bump Caps Recommended..
9 Jan 2026 5:49 am
squarehead would bitch if he was hanged with a new rope...Fuelman » 09 Jan 2026, 6:03 am » wrote: ↑ Exports is what drove the number higher which is a good thing. Fair trade produces more trade?
It will be quite amusing if that number holds even though the government was shut down.
JuCo 5 percenter...72
“Show me the man and I’ll find you the crime” ~ LAVRENTIY BERIA
"Try to get past your passionate ignorance and learn to accept what actually happened." ~ brown's unheeded words of wisdom 
If gender is not sex, why should a gender claim change what sex you shower with?
"Libruls are often fascists on vacation..." 
9 Jan 2026 6:27 am
2025 was the toughest year for labor market since 2020 recessionFuelman » 08 Jan 2026, 7:07 pm » wrote: ↑ A little positive news when all the other news is ****!
Note: this is not official but a GDPNow model used by the Atlanta Fed.
GDPNow - Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta https://share.google/1yJXDhnbitmmR5qCb
The growth rate of real gross domestic product (GDP) is a key indicator of economic activity, but the official estimate is released with a delay. Our GDPNow forecasting model provides a "nowcast" of the official estimate prior to its release by estimating GDP growth using a methodology similar to the one used by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis. Latest estimate: 5.4 percent — January 08, 2026 The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2025 is 5.4 percent on January 8, up from 2.7 percent on January 5. After recent releases from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, the US Census Bureau, and the Institute for Supply Management, the nowcast of fourth-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth increased from 2.4 percent to 3.0 percent, while the nowcast of the contribution of net exports to fourth-quarter real GDP growth increased from -0.30 percentage points to 1.97 percentage points
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business ... ment-rate/
9 Jan 2026 7:59 am
As Pelosi once said:Blackvegetable » 09 Jan 2026, 7:27 am » wrote: ↑ 2025 was the toughest year for labor market since 2020 recession
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business ... ment-rate/
"Unemployment benefits are creating jobs faster than practically any other program," Pelosi said, arguing that when families have money to spend, it keeps the economy churning. "It creates jobs faster than almost any other initiative you can name".
9 Jan 2026 8:01 am
This has nothing to do with anything Pelosi has ever said.Fuelman » 09 Jan 2026, 8:59 am » wrote: ↑ As Pelosi once said:
"Unemployment benefits are creating jobs faster than practically any other program," Pelosi said, arguing that when families have money to spend, it keeps the economy churning. "It creates jobs faster than almost any other initiative you can name".
This has to do with the actual CONSISTENT consequences of your idiotic voting habits.
9 Jan 2026 8:45 am
Too bad about Kameltoe, no telling how many blow jobs she could have created.Blackvegetable » 09 Jan 2026, 9:01 am » wrote: ↑ This has nothing to do with anything Pelosi has ever said.
This has to do with the actual CONSISTENT consequences of your idiotic voting habits.
9 Jan 2026 8:51 am
Literally never worth reading.
9 Jan 2026 9:08 am
Fuelman » 09 Jan 2026, 8:59 am » wrote: ↑ As Pelosi once said:
"Unemployment benefits are creating jobs faster than practically any other program," Pelosi said, arguing that when families have money to spend, it keeps the economy churning. "It creates jobs faster than almost any other initiative you can name".
Oh the irony...
JuCo 5 percenter...72
“Show me the man and I’ll find you the crime” ~ LAVRENTIY BERIA
"Try to get past your passionate ignorance and learn to accept what actually happened." ~ brown's unheeded words of wisdom
If gender is not sex, why should a gender claim change what sex you shower with?
"Libruls are often fascists on vacation..."
9 Jan 2026 9:08 am
RebelGator » 09 Jan 2026, 9:45 am » wrote: ↑ Too bad about Kameltoe, no telling how many blow jobs she could have created.
JuCo 5 percenter...72
“Show me the man and I’ll find you the crime” ~ LAVRENTIY BERIA
"Try to get past your passionate ignorance and learn to accept what actually happened." ~ brown's unheeded words of wisdom
If gender is not sex, why should a gender claim change what sex you shower with?
"Libruls are often fascists on vacation..."
9 Jan 2026 9:09 am
yet you did...
JuCo 5 percenter...72
“Show me the man and I’ll find you the crime” ~ LAVRENTIY BERIA
"Try to get past your passionate ignorance and learn to accept what actually happened." ~ brown's unheeded words of wisdom
If gender is not sex, why should a gender claim change what sex you shower with?
"Libruls are often fascists on vacation..."
9 Jan 2026 9:11 am
No, I didn't...
Which is the point.
Keep working on the link thing.
9 Jan 2026 9:51 am
I've lived in Blue states for the last 27 years, my lean towards conservative didn't mean ****.Blackvegetable » 09 Jan 2026, 9:01 am » wrote: ↑ This has nothing to do with anything Pelosi has ever said.
This has to do with the actual CONSISTENT consequences of your idiotic voting habits.
9 Jan 2026 9:54 am
It means you voted for **** candidates...Fuelman » 09 Jan 2026, 10:51 am » wrote: ↑ I've lived in Blue states for the last 27 years, my lean towards conservative didn't mean ****.
9 Jan 2026 9:56 am
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