Liberal Forum

So I was faced with rolling the dice on a 20% chance of an adverse outcome from the jab - and that number is conservative, since the jab was passed in haste through the waiver of ordinary hurdles. Or I could buck the tiger's odds on a disease that had a 3 in 10k chance of ending me. 


Are there any obvious flaws in my math or logic, dear reader?

It looks like you are spot on, but there is a little more math that needs to be done for no other reason than to prove it mathematically.  I believe (though I may be wrong) that to find the real probabilities, there are 4 cases: 

1. vaccine with adverse conditions without infection
2. Vaccine with adverse conditions with infection
3. vaccine without adverse conditions with infection
4. Vaccine without adverse conditions without infection

Probabilities: 

• Vaccine with adverse conditions = .2
• Vaccine without adverse conditions = .8
• Infected = 3/10000 = .03%
• Not infected = 99.97%

Case 1) .2 x .9997 = 19.994%
Case 2) .2 x .0003 = .006%
Case 3) .8 x .03 = 2.4%
Case 4) .8 x .9997 = 79.98%

Case 4 has the highest probability followed by Case 1. However, these are only the probabilities with the vaccine. I would say that case 2 is the most applicable to your argument. Very small probability, so you are spot on.