Liberal Forum

Vegas » 04 Jan 2022, 1:22 pm » wrote: ↑

04 Jan 2022, 1:22 pm

It looks like you are spot on, but there is a little more math that needs to be done for no other reason than to prove it mathematically.  I believe (though I may be wrong) that to find the real probabilities, there are 4 cases: 

1. vaccine with adverse conditions without infection
2. Vaccine with adverse conditions with infection
3. vaccine without adverse conditions with infection
4. Vaccine without adverse conditions without infection

Probabilities: 

• Vaccine with adverse conditions = .2
• Vaccine without adverse conditions = .8
• Infected = 3/10000 = .03%
• Not infected = 99.97%

Case 1) .2 x .9997 = 19.994%
Case 2) .2 x .0003 = .006%
Case 3) .8 x .03 = 2.4%
Case 4) .8 x .9997 = 79.98%

Case 4 has the highest probability followed by Case 1. However, these are only the probabilities with the vaccine. I would say that case 2 is the most applicable to your argument. Very small probability, so you are spot on.