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Does Donald J tRumP DESERVE a 70% stock market CRASH??!!
Yesterday 8:09 am
You must use different charts than everyone else?
Current estimates for a US recession range between 17% and 48%, depending on the model, with prediction markets showing record-low odds of a near-term downturn.
Economic indicators and probability models vary across top institutions
rediction Markets:
On platforms like Kalshi, odds of a 2026 recession have recently plummeted to around 17.5%, while competitor Polymarket tracks odds in the 23% to 40% range.
Federal Reserve Models: The NY Fed's recession probability model (based on the Treasury spread) sits at 17.6%. Conversely, the Philadelphia Fed's "Anxious Index" puts a 25.0% probability on a contraction next quarter.
Wall Street Institutions: Goldman Sachs forecasts a 30% chance of a U.S. recession over the next year, while models like Moody’s Analytics place the 12-month likelihood slightly higher at 48.6%.
Note: Economic recession models are inherently estimations based on historical financial metrics like yield curves, inflation, and employment data, rather than guarantees.
Current estimates for a US recession range between 17% and 48%, depending on the model, with prediction markets showing record-low odds of a near-term downturn.
Economic indicators and probability models vary across top institutions
rediction Markets:On platforms like Kalshi, odds of a 2026 recession have recently plummeted to around 17.5%, while competitor Polymarket tracks odds in the 23% to 40% range.
Federal Reserve Models: The NY Fed's recession probability model (based on the Treasury spread) sits at 17.6%. Conversely, the Philadelphia Fed's "Anxious Index" puts a 25.0% probability on a contraction next quarter.
Wall Street Institutions: Goldman Sachs forecasts a 30% chance of a U.S. recession over the next year, while models like Moody’s Analytics place the 12-month likelihood slightly higher at 48.6%.
Note: Economic recession models are inherently estimations based on historical financial metrics like yield curves, inflation, and employment data, rather than guarantees.