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Fuelman » Today, 8:09 am » wrote: ↑

Today, 8:09 am

You must use different charts than everyone else?

Current estimates for a US recession range between 17% and 48%, depending on the model, with prediction markets showing record-low odds of a near-term downturn.

Economic indicators and probability models vary across top institutionsrediction Markets:

On platforms like Kalshi, odds of a 2026 recession have recently plummeted to around 17.5%, while competitor Polymarket tracks odds in the 23% to 40% range.

Federal Reserve Models: The NY Fed's recession probability model (based on the Treasury spread) sits at 17.6%. Conversely, the Philadelphia Fed's "Anxious Index" puts a 25.0% probability on a contraction next quarter.

Wall Street Institutions: Goldman Sachs forecasts a 30% chance of a U.S. recession over the next year, while models like Moody’s Analytics place the 12-month likelihood slightly higher at 48.6%.

Note: Economic recession models are inherently estimations based on historical financial metrics like yield curves, inflation, and employment data, rather than guarantees.