Liberal Forum

LowIQTrash » Today, 11:57 am » wrote: ↑

Today, 11:57 am

And that is perfectly fine. I told people on a messaging group that the June high set in the Nasdaq/SP wasn't the final high and more rallies will come.

I looked at 100 years of US stock market history and found none of the major tops that led to a 35%+ bear market started in June. Unfortunately even making a simple analysis / deduction like this is far beyond what most traders are capable of, which makes me conclude they won't survive the slaughter.

I estimate there is a 75% chance it tops in October 2026 and 99% by the end of March 2027. The idiot consensus is Warsh will raise rates and burst the bubble, which is nonsense. More likely it will be a black swan people haven't figured out yet. 

Maybe I should be thanking the J U U Z 3 for having some shenanigans planned???!!!

So here is the AI consensus of experts reporting on the odds. 

The current risk of a stock market crash is driven by a mix of extreme valuations, high oil prices, and uncertainty over artificial intelligence spending, though overall market probability estimates for a major 30%+ drop remain relatively low at around 8% to 10% annually.Key Risk FactorsStretched Valuations: The Shiller CAPE ratio has climbed near historic highs (around 42), approaching the peak levels seen during the 2000 dot-com bubble.AI and Tech Concentration: Massive capital expenditures on artificial intelligence infrastructure have led to crowded trades, leaving tech-heavy indexes like the Nasdaq vulnerable to sudden pullbacks or earnings misses.Inflation and Oil Spikes: Rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have driven up oil prices, raising fears of sticky inflation and forcing the Federal Reserve to consider potential interest rate hikes.Historical Odds: Quantitative models and economic surveys generally place the baseline probability of an outright crash (a drop of 30% or more) in any given 12-month window at roughly 8% to 14%.

The black swan event will have to be something spectacular to derail the current advances. Let us know when ya figure it out.