Liberal Forum

Fuelman » 26 Jul 2026, 3:56 pm » wrote: ↑

26 Jul 2026, 3:56 pm

So here is the AI consensus of experts reporting on the odds. 

The current risk of a stock market crash is driven by a mix of extreme valuations, high oil prices, and uncertainty over artificial intelligence spending, though overall market probability estimates for a major 30%+ drop remain relatively low at around 8% to 10% annually.Key Risk FactorsStretched Valuations: The Shiller CAPE ratio has climbed near historic highs (around 42), approaching the peak levels seen during the 2000 dot-com bubble.AI and Tech Concentration: Massive capital expenditures on artificial intelligence infrastructure have led to crowded trades, leaving tech-heavy indexes like the Nasdaq vulnerable to sudden pullbacks or earnings misses.Inflation and Oil Spikes: Rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have driven up oil prices, raising fears of sticky inflation and forcing the Federal Reserve to consider potential interest rate hikes.Historical Odds: Quantitative models and economic surveys generally place the baseline probability of an outright crash (a drop of 30% or more) in any given 12-month window at roughly 8% to 14%.

The black swan event will have to be something spectacular to derail the current advances. Let us know when ya figure it out.